ICM with AK suited, 4 off the bubble with 8 BBs

TheBigFinn

TheBigFinn

Visionary
Bronze Level
Joined
Aug 17, 2014
Total posts
586
Awards
2
Chips
0
It is a decently large "seniors" tournament with a $200 + $50 buy-in. We started at 10 am and it is after the dinner break and getting close to the bubble. I sit with a bit over 8 BBs with the BBs in middle position. There are two players milking the bubble for all they can. One of the table captains is under the gun and limps. 3 folds to me with the other active player on my left. I have AK suited.

My first thought is, its shove time. but then I start thinking about ICM. If I bust out I will have played for 8 hours and won nothing, where I can easily fold into the money. Obviously it is relatively small money to bust just after the button, but first is several thousand.

I sucked it up and shoved and was insta-called by the UTG who tables 99. The hold and I'm out either 3 or 4 off the bubble.(another player bust just before or after me) as the tournament goes hand for hand.

Is this a shove?
 
Y

yoejslattery

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 2, 2019
Total posts
99
Chips
0
Depends on your goal. Shove if you are trying to win. However, that close to the money I would have folded, gotten into the money and then started to shove and try to double up a couple of times. Were there a lot of short stacks being blinded out?
 
Poker_Mike

Poker_Mike

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Aug 15, 2017
Total posts
4,777
Awards
2
Chips
393
TheBigFinn said:
It is a decently large "seniors" tournament with a $200 + $50 buy-in. We started at 10 am and it is after the dinner break and getting close to the bubble. I sit with a bit over 8 BBs with the BBs in middle position. There are two players milking the bubble for all they can. One of the table captains is under the gun and limps. 3 folds to me with the other active player on my left. I have AK suited.

My first thought is, its shove time. but then I start thinking about ICM. If I bust out I will have played for 8 hours and won nothing, where I can easily fold into the money. Obviously it is relatively small money to bust just after the button, but first is several thousand.

I sucked it up and shoved and was insta-called by the UTG who tables 99. The hold and I'm out either 3 or 4 off the bubble.(another player bust just before or after me) as the tournament goes hand for hand.

Is this a shove?
Click to expand...


It's soooo important to cash that if you could limp into the money then I would do that.

But, I think most posters to this thread would agree that you need to double up that short stack to really have a good chance of making the final table, which is where allll the big money is!

I'm ok with either move. I am impressed that you asked yourself that question and went for it...

Good luck !
 
Brandlad

Brandlad

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 5, 2015
Total posts
966
Chips
0
Stack size is a king in any tourney as it gives you cushion against any bad beats.
But again playing for 6-8 hours you should have entered into the prize zone.
Folding is always advisable in case of A K as it is just a drawing hand and against any made hand it can give you ugly surprises.

Shoving is always bad against equal opponant (in terms of stack size).
 
M

Milan Godhania

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 3, 2018
Total posts
78
Chips
0
Expect the unexpected once you reach hand-to-hand. Players with tournament experience knows what cards you hold & the risk they are taking. It's better to go for the money first.
 
TheBigFinn

TheBigFinn

Visionary
Bronze Level
Joined
Aug 17, 2014
Total posts
586
Awards
2
Chips
0
Poker_Mike said:
It's soooo important to cash that if you could limp into the money then I would do that.

But, I think most posters to this thread would agree that you need to double up that short stack to really have a good chance of making the final table, which is where allll the big money is!

I'm ok with either move. I am impressed that you asked yourself that question and went for it...

Good luck !
Click to expand...


In truth, my brother the accountant, gave me a hard time when I told him about it. His point was, if I was at the world series of poker he knows I would have limped in, which is true. While we both are "aware" of ICM, neither of use knows how to calculate it. I was hoping some one here would.
 
Rahatis

Rahatis

Legend
Platinum Level
Joined
Feb 7, 2017
Total posts
1,447
Awards
2
Chips
177
If you can't win a single flip for a week or so, just fold. If you are playing poker, just shove.
 
V

Veritas

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 10, 2018
Total posts
335
Chips
0
TheBigFinn said:
While we both are "aware" of ICM, neither of use knows how to calculate it. I was hoping some one here would.
Click to expand...


to calculate it you would Need the exact stack sizes and payouts.


but with AKs, 8BBs and the table bully limping UTG there is not much to think About.
If you want to fold in the Money, limp/fold in this spot.
But if you want to make Money, shove. I'm sure he has a lot of weaker hands in his range where he would have called aswell
 
TheBigFinn

TheBigFinn

Visionary
Bronze Level
Joined
Aug 17, 2014
Total posts
586
Awards
2
Chips
0
Rahatis said:
If you can't win a single flip for a week or so, just fold. If you are playing poker, just shove.
Click to expand...


LOL, If I only knew I would actually win the flip, or thought previous trials effected this one...

The answer appears to what ever you are feeling that day.
 
Deedgee

Deedgee

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 20, 2019
Total posts
223
Chips
0
If you're not willing to go with AK in that situation, what you're saying is that you're not willing to play any hand, short of AA or KK or QQ, until you make it past the bubble, which isn't a guarantee. I think you have to go with it.
 
Top