Is HU play during late stages of turbos mostly luck?

The way I see it is this- I'm getting crappy cards. He's getting crappy cards. If I don't see him calling with hands like K2 or Q4, I should be shoving a good portion of my hands on the button. Waiting for even a decent hand can leave me in bad shape from folding too much, so I find myself shoving hands like 43, 86, etc which are at least likely to be live if he calls. However, past few games I've been called by the likes of JJ, AQ, etc and I'm wondering if it's just bad luck or should I be waiting for better cards?

If I'm facing a player who seems to be shoving literally every hand, then I just wait for a decent hand and make the call. But sometimes I really feel like the HU portion of a sng, which decides between a huge portion of the equity, is just luck, and it's depressing

You have my sympathies, jaded. It can seem like a crap shoot at times and there is a lot of luck involved. The problem is that blinds are usually fairly high compared to stacks and a couple of BB folds can easily take us from being in a position of parity to having only 1/3 the chips available. There are a few things we can do to get an edge.

Firstly when there only 3 players left think about how each of them will probably play HU - aggressive or passive? Use sharkscope or one of the others to check on their experience - have they played a ton of HU or are they new to it. Then make a plan to beat them; usually if they zig, you zag. Steal chips from a passive player and let an aggressive one hang themselves - ie wait to get a hand. This is hard if you are card dead and getting shortstacked, but if you have folded to their aggression for 4 hands an open shove with ATC can keep you breathing for a while. I'd recommend not leaving a stealing shove too late: if the stacks are 9K and 4.5K and blinds 500 then think about a steal the next SB. If you leave it too late (11K vs 2.5K) a lot of players are calling with anything - to steal the villain needs to worry about losing those chips.

If your villain is very aggressive you need to draw a line in the sand; show them you are not going to roll over easily, give them a tough decision.

Much of this ^^^^ is true -though afaik it is against site TOWS to use sharkscope when the client is running (at least at FT ).

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4.4 EXTERNAL PLAYER ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS (EPAs).
Full Tilt Poker prohibits external player assistance programs (EPA programs) which are designed to provide an "unfair advantage" to players. Full Tilt Poker defines external to mean computer software (other than the Full Tilt Poker game client provided by Full Tilt Poker), and non-software-based databases or profiles (e.g., web sites and subscription services). Full Tilt Poker defines an "unfair advantage" as a User accessing or compiling information on other players beyond that which the User has personally observed through the User's own game play.

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This applies to many sites like sharkscope but not to tracking programs like HEM or PT.

grafkarow said:

Much of this ^^^^ is true -though afaik it is against site TOWS to use sharkscope when the client is running (at least at FT ).

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This applies to many sites like sharkscope but not to tracking programs like HEM or PT.

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Well I never knew that. Is there any way of stopping players doing it?

http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/hune.html

Figure that out, then come back and I'll explain more stuff.

Slap and Tickle time is my favorite time of the Tourney. Shove any Ace or Pair. Thats the slap. Call or double with faces. Fold to Shoves and play the flops where they lie. The Tickle And Fold the Rest.

The_Pup said:

Well I never knew that. Is there any way of stopping players doing it?

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You can always report them to the site - I don't do that though...usually I put that guy on my "buddy" - list.

I sometimes look up the worst opponent after the game just out of curiosity - and to have a good laugh.

c9h13no3 said:

http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/hune.html

Figure that out, then come back and I'll explain more stuff.

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Yeah - that chart is helpfull (knew it before though).

I've experience with Slap and Tickle. It was my favourite Slap and Ticke time is my favorite time of the tourney. Call or double with faces.

Fmoltley232 said:

I've experience with Slap and Tickle. It was my favourite Slap and Ticke time is my favorite time of the tourney. Call or double with faces.

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I hope to god this strategy isn't advocating limping HU with face cards...

jaded848 said:

The way I see it is this- I'm getting crappy cards. He's getting crappy cards. If I don't see him calling with hands like K2 or Q4, I should be shoving a good portion of my hands on the button. Waiting for even a decent hand can leave me in bad shape from folding too much, so I find myself shoving hands like 43, 86, etc which are at least likely to be live if he calls. However, past few games I've been called by the likes of JJ, AQ, etc and I'm wondering if it's just bad luck or should I be waiting for better cards?

If I'm facing a player who seems to be shoving literally every hand, then I just wait for a decent hand and make the call. But sometimes I really feel like the HU portion of a sng, which decides between a huge portion of the equity, is just luck, and it's depressing

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Unless the other guy is really shoving every hand -- few do -- you can't wait for a premium hand to play. It might not come. It's time for a bit of selective aggression. Raise your small blind fairly often. Try to see a lot of flops.

Yes, it does seem, often, that whoever gets luckiest wins. But, with two savvy players, there's a back-and-forth period, then it usually ends when both get a good hand and both play their hands hard. With two smart players, HU can last quite a while.

What do the number in that HU push/fold chart stand for?

BrentD22 said:

What do the number in that HU push/fold chart stand for?

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In very short, that is the stack size in terms of BB that is the optimal strategy to shove or call with repectively.

There is loads more to Nash - but I don't have time now.

The_Pup said:

In very short, that is the stack size in terms of BB that is the game theory optimal strategy to shove or call with repectively.

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Fixt yer poast

The_Pup said:

In very short, that is the stack size in terms of BB that is the optimal strategy to shove or call with repectively.

There is loads more to Nash - but I don't have time now.

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hmm theroy seems bad then cause the chart says its ok to call with 19.5 BB with QJo?

and shoving 20 BB with 54s?

also says shoving 20 BB with 89o is ok?

The_Pup said:

In very short, that is the stack size in terms of BB that is the optimal strategy to shove or call with repectively.

There is loads more to Nash - but I don't have time now.

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duh it's what I figured, but I too was surprised to see open shoving 89o 20BB's deep ect. Some of these numbers seems a little spewy.

My biggest issue with some of these charts is it removes the human factor. If I have a very soft weak player sitting across from me I'd rather just chip him down slowly if time permits. If it's a turbo than yes I fully agree with chart.

I am clueless about this b ut am wandering the same thing! I think it seems to be alot of luck during the later stages but yet many are gr8 in this area and I am new to poker so I guess I'm not a good one to comment ! I love reading the comments! Gr8 blog!!!

c9h13no3 said:

Fixt yer poast

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Thanks.

The fewer players the more valuable hand you have. Q5 and K4 are actually decent hands when you're HU, and more than likely any pair will be the best hand. You have to loosen up. Pushing every hand just lets the guy fold til he gets a monster and drains you. You have to feel him out and figure out how he's playing, too tight or playing every hand, limping every hand or raising. You have to adapt to his play and hit him where he's weak.

BrentD22 said:

duh it's what I figured, but I too was surprised to see open shoving 89o 20BB's deep ect. Some of these numbers seems a little spewy.

My biggest issue with some of these charts is it removes the human factor. If I have a very soft weak player sitting across from me I'd rather just chip him down slowly if time permits. If it's a turbo than yes I fully agree with chart.

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You are right. This is a very specific game where the only options are to go all-in or fold. It also assumes that each player knows the equilibrium strategy. When these conditions are met then there is no benefit to defecting from the play suggested by the chart.

Imagine a game where two players have the charts in front of them and both players have 20BB. Nash tells us to shove 89o from the SB - the BB will fold all but about 1/4 of hole cards. The other 3/4 we will be behind but obviously still have 2 live cards. Suppose they call with A5o, we pretty much have a coin flip. Nash says that if your oponent is playing from the chart then your best strategy is to also play from the chart; this is why it is the Nash equilibrium. If the other uses another strategy then non-chart strategies may be better.

BrentD22 said:

My biggest issue with some of these charts is it removes the human factor

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Given that the chart gives a game theory optimal (GTO) range, there is no human factor. Obviously, you don't get it.

Game theory optimal strategy is one that cannot be exploited. In other words, even if your opponent plays perfectly, you will still profit.

If you are playing a bad player, then yes, the optimal strategy will almost never be a GTO strategy. It will be an exploitative one. But you would still profit if you played GTO. Which is why this chart exists. You base your strategy on this, and alter it one way or another to exploit your opponents. Oddly enough, you chose the wrong way (tightening up) to exploit most players in this situation.

No I understand the idea of the therory, but I do not trust my math skills as much as I trust my "human factor" adjustments. I use the math to help me in situations like you said when my opponent is playing perfect or at least player very well. Although if I'm playing someone that is playing near perfect than I've already made a HUGE mistake by even deciding to play them.

Now when I first don't make the mistake of playing someone who is playing perfect or near perfect and I'm typically playing a avg. to bad player I allow my human factor adjustments to make many of my decisions that include math, but don't rely soley on it.

Also where the hell did I say I tighten up? In a HU match if I don't shove 89o with 20bb's it's usually because I think I can exploit villan in other ways. If I do make the mistake of playing a player who is playing perfect or near perfect than I am without question more apt to rely solely on the charts and the math because I know my edge in those other areas is probably not there.

If you gather the idea that I "tighten up" trying to exploit these players from me not shoving 89o than I guess you are correct I tighten way up and make the tuff decision to not shove 89o 20bb's deep if I feel I have a bigger edge in other areas. Can you hear the sarcasim?