How to tell if your a winning player

or3o1990

or3o1990

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I've been running worse thank po lil tink tink (Katt William's reference for all you white people out there ;)) and I'm curious what others consider an effective sample size? I only play 9 player SNG tournaments where the top 3 automatically chop the pot and after almost 100 tournaments this week I'm breaking even. Like I said though I've been running very bad lately, my last hand I reraise all in preflop with AA against A9o and the guy rivers trips. Womp, it happens I guess but it's been happening a ton lately. How many tournaments roughly would it take to give me an accurate gauge of my skill level?
 
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hffjd2000

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Good job. Breaking even is already a winning sign.
 
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trent32la

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100 games is a very small sample size, I wouldn't be too worried, if you are breaking even there is no rush, just make sure you are making the correct plays. Results will show over time. As for the sample size question, if you're playing 9man "Triple Up" sngs I would have to say a min 2k games sample size would be needed (just guessing). It is a much different strategy than a reg 9man or a double or nothing. I would strongly recommend you learn the basics of ICM if you are going to be playing these as it is critical in a top3 flat payout structure in certain spots to know when ICM will affect your decision making.
 
or3o1990

or3o1990

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trent32la said:
100 games is a very small sample size, I wouldn't be too worried, if you are breaking even there is no rush, just make sure you are making the correct plays. Results will show over time. As for the sample size question, if you're playing 9man "Triple Up" sngs I would have to say a min 2k games sample size would be needed (just guessing). It is a much different strategy than a reg 9man or a double or nothing. I would strongly recommend you learn the basics of ICM if you are going to be playing these as it is critical in a top3 flat payout structure in certain spots to know when ICM will affect your decision making.
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Wow, 2k tournaments? Sounds pretty steep but I'll get there. I don't mind if your just guessing, your guess is better than mine so thank you! I understand ICM, how it works and what it means at the table but it is alot of math to do on the fly, especially when multitabling. Most book's and articles I've found that explain ICM are always describing tournaments where 1st place is an option. I've never found any that apply directly to "triple ups", any suggestions or pointers?
 
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joe777

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Even a pro sometimes break even and only benefit from the rakeback.
 
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DrHorrible

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I would avoid those games altogether. I'd play regular payout 9 player sNg instead. A couple of wins can sustain several losses in the standard payscale where 1 win can only support 2 losses in the triple up format and then you have to place again.

My method is based only on my hatred for those format games.
 
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heavystack

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try the double or nothing 6 players they are easy
 
or3o1990

or3o1990

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@joe777
That is true but I can't help but always want to make money!

@DrHorrible
That is a good point and I may have to take it into consideration. I don't have a real reason for playing them other than they're what I've always played. I change the stakes but not the game usually.

@heavystack

I do play them sometimes but I prefer the 9 man structure.
 
or3o1990

or3o1990

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I had a nice upswing this weekend. I'm playing more to increase my sample size faster but I only feel comfortable 3 tabling..
 
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WiZZiM

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yep, around 1-2k tournaments minimum, however after around 500 you should be starting to see signs of how you are doing.
 
or3o1990

or3o1990

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WiZZiM said:
yep, around 1-2k tournaments minimum, however after around 500 you should be starting to see signs of how you are doing.
Click to expand...
Thanks. I'm trying to play at least 100 a week. Not the nearly volume that a lot of people play but I'll get there. :D
 
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