How to reduce variance in MTT's?

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Foxhound3857

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I've been watching a lot of Marty Smith's videos (Turtleknife on YouTube) in order to improve my MTT game, now that I feel I've got a fair grasp on SnG's (placing consistently in $1.10's now). I made a couple of deep runs, one in a freeroll, and one in a $0.30 turbo MTT with 250 players (of which I finished 9th, making the final table).

I'm wondering if anyone has any advice for MTT's that would lower the variance/luck factor in placing ITM, and will help me go deep more consistently. I AM using Tournament Indicator now, and it's consistently giving me a sad face next to my name, telling me I'm a tight-aggressive (TAG) player.
 
Shufflin

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I think the only thing that could reduce variance would be longer blind levels and deeper stacks. ie. turbos will have more variance than non.

Learning to speculate early without spewing chips can also help you build a stack, which will help you get deeper into the tournament.

But MTTs will have a lot of variance by nature, so I'd recommend a BR of 200 buyins regardless...
 
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BlueNowhere

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Increase edge on rest of the field and play small field games is the only way you'll reduce variance.
 
Karkus77

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the higher the starting chips and the longer the blinds reduces variance as do smaller fields

but there is a ton of variance in MTT's you just got to get used to it, thats why you should pretty much never play them if you have a small bankroll and dont want to go bust
 
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BlueNowhere

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the higher the starting chips and the longer the blinds reduces variance as do smaller fields

but there is a ton of variance in MTT's you just got to get used to it, thats why you should pretty much never play them if you have a small bankroll and dont want to go bust
Not sure that's strictly true.
 
Pascal-lf

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Deeper the stacks the lower the variance for the better players as it's possible to have a bigger edge, that's a pretty obvious one

Playing small fields, especially ones where you have a big edge, is a bonus. Definitely don't just play 1k+ player tournies
 
Reptar7

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Just play a really conservative BR management, like 200 BI's. If it is NL then I don't know how much stack size is going to matter. Smaller field size is good.
 
Pascal-lf

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if you're in a turbo, with average 10bb stack, you're going to be taking a lot of small edges - stuff like shoving ATC cards for a +0.3M increase with a 6M stack

on the other hand, if youre playing against a bunch of fish with 100bb average stacks then they are going to make horrendous mistakes postflop and you're going to get it in with 80-100% equity a lot more often
 
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BlueNowhere

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ok well for good players i cant see how its not true

thats why the sucky players play hypers :D

Yea obv true for good players where it increases the edge. For someone who is going to be slgihtly -ev (BE before rake) then variance is going to be higher than the same tournament but with smaller blinds presuming they can be slightly +ev when they don't have to play deep.
 
Reptar7

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if you're in a turbo, with average 10bb stack, you're going to be taking a lot of small edges - stuff like shoving ATC cards for a +0.3M increase with a 6M stack

on the other hand, if youre playing against a bunch of fish with 100bb average stacks then they are going to make horrendous mistakes postflop and you're going to get it in with 80-100% equity a lot more often

This is all true and I understand the argument, but you also have to take into account that people play tighter and better in deep stack tourneys whereas a lot of the shortstack tourneys are just donks looking to luckbox. The edge for a good player is probably greater in the shortstack tourneys just because the other players are terrible. Maybe that makes up for the stuff you wrote.

Probably the best way to reduce variance is to play cash games at the lowest stakes like 2NL and just play super TAG. You can have a graph that is a consistent 45 degree angle doing that. SNGs and Tourneys are up and down. Even if you have a big edge, eventually you hit a 20 BI downswing.
 
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baudib1

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This is all true and I understand the argument, but you also have to take into account that people play tighter and better in deep stack tourneys whereas a lot of the shortstack tourneys are just donks looking to luckbox. The edge for a good player is probably greater in the shortstack tourneys just because the other players are terrible. Maybe that makes up for

What you don't understand is that "donks trying to luckbox" are likely playing much closer to optimal than whatever your idea of playing well is. The terrible players are the ones passing up +EV spots. In mtts there are just way too many times when 2 players are going to correctly get the chips in the middle. Variance isn't something that really can or should be avoided because passing up marginal spots isn't going to be profitable.

The difference between shortstack games and deep stacked games is that in deeper games bad players can make devastating, 100-BB mistakes as opposed to 10-BB mistakes and very often that 10-BB mistake won't actually be a mistake at all.

In truth no one is really prepared for how bad downswings in mtts can be and most people shouldn't play mtts regularly.
 
Arjonius

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When you look at ITM, the nature of the payouts for STTs and MTTs dictates that the latter will have much more variance. STTs usually pay 1/3 of the players, while MTTs are more like 10%.

In a related vein, it's not optimal to focus on raising yout MTT ITM because it tends to mean you'll average placing somewhat lower, which will be a drag on your profits over the long haul.
 
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RamdeeBen

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Like everyone says here I guess. Deeper stacks if you are good deep stacked is a "huge" advantage at the micros that's for sure. However, because micros has a ton of players, you're less likely to find any MTT tournaments with anything more than 1000's+ players
 
Karkus77

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i like the $5 2 rebuy and 1 addon and the like , straight away just buy the 2 addons and its lovely and deep stacked, also alot of people just play it as a straight up $5 and leave if knocked out, or just play like a maniac in a rebuy, so much dead money, great tournies
 
Poker Orifice

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However, because micros has a ton of players, you're less likely to find any MTT tournaments with anything more than 1000's+ players
RAM, you're (once again) speaking 'strictly' about pokerstars. There are other sites out there, lol (some where it'd be difficult to even reach 1,000 entrants even in micros.. ie. iPoker's Daily$1 is a $1,000guar. (deepstack - 3,000chip) & their $1Daily$1r/a is $1,500 (gets 600-700 entrants).
Even on Stars though, there are quite a few 500Cap., 1,000Cap. tourneys.

Try to play alot of smaller field tourneys. Also consider adding in MTT-SNG (ie. 45's or 180's... 45's 'regular speed' on FTP used to be great & had ALOT of MTT regs. in them)

OP, not sure what your goal is here... is it to try to play MTT's optimally or are you lookin' to 'min-cash' by taking lines w less variance plays?
MTT's are not the easiest game to play as far as 'mind-feck' stuff. You can be playing great & even going deep regularly & still not hit any significant cashes for long stretches. You can be sitting in top10 spots for first couple hours, then bust out in 3hands just off bubble, etc. etc. etc. etc. They are not for everyone by any means.
 
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Poker Orifice

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Try to get in alot of smaller field Tourneys & maybe consider adding in some MTT-SNG (45's &/or 180's.... the 45man Sng on FTP (reg.speed) used to have alot of MTT regs. playing in them. Not sure what would be comparable on the site(s) you're playing on)
 
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Sticking to low buy ins should help with variance. However, it's no guarantee that you won't end up facing "variance" anyway. Some days..........
 
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Foxhound3857

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My goal isn't necessarily to win them outright, but primarily to place in the money "consistently," to secure my ROI, earn my BI back plus a small amount of profit. ITM stage is where I tend to get a lot more aggressive and adopt the strategy of double up or get out.
 
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BlueNowhere

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My goal isn't necessarily to win them outright, but primarily to place in the money "consistently," to secure my ROI, earn my BI back plus a small amount of profit. ITM stage is where I tend to get a lot more aggressive and adopt the strategy of double up or get out.

Sounds like a solid way too make super soft games -ev.
 
Karkus77

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My goal isn't necessarily to win them outright, but primarily to place in the money "consistently," to secure my ROI, earn my BI back plus a small amount of profit. ITM stage is where I tend to get a lot more aggressive and adopt the strategy of double up or get out.

yeah sorry mate, but thats just a bad strategy
 
vegasjj

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variance is part of the game - have to get used to it.

Of course all that was said about deeper stack and longer blinds is true - if you are playing solid poker. But nothing will stop your KK being busted on river by someone hitting their str8 and you being out way before your time.

All things being equal - in the long run - solid play should keep you in a positive cash flow - even in moderate size MTT's
 
Shufflin

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How is it a bad strategy to want to consistently place ITM?

To min-cash, you are often getting less than double your buy-in, so to profit you'd have to cash in over half of your MTTs. Not likely.

I know Marty Smith advocates cashing first and going for more later, but I believe he is referring specifically to 180-seat tournies, where you only have to outlast one more merge to get to FT and more $. In the larger fields, you can play for a long time ITM and not get much more than the minimum.

I think the idea is that there is nothing wrong with finishing ITM, but if you are tightening up your game too much on the bubble, you are going to often be so short stacked if you do cash that there isn't much chance of going for more -- which you are going to need to do from time to time to maintain a profit.
 
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baudib1

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How is it a bad strategy to want to consistently place ITM?

If you are finishing ITM in large-field MTTs too often you are playing incorrectly. You need to take risks on the bubble and accumulate chips and not fear busting in order to get a big enough stack to go deep into the money. A huge% of your profit from playing MTTs is the very occasional final table and top 3 finish, finishing ITM a lot is going to leave you with a terrible ROI.
 
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