How to reduce variance?

The game of poker requires a lot of strategy, it is necessary to carefully analyze the players and the table, a subtle change can mean a lot.

Having said that, we can conclude that what matters in the game is to make the best decision, we should not only play by the result. If we are always making the best choices sooner or later we will be winning, as much as we seem to be at a loss, over time with a higher sampling we should have a positive chart.

Today I played against a very aggressive player, he went several times allin, in a certain spot I raised and he just call, on the flop came a A he took the action and it was allin, I paid holding AJ, he had A5, for his luck came a 5 after this and he won.

I play a lot of freeroll tournaments, it's common to find complicated situations, I do not always make the best decision, but the better I play it seems that it does not matter if I dedicate myself, in the end I'll be at a disadvantage. I'm trying to change my game style, study more, and focus on winning more often.

elizeuof said:

The game of poker requires a lot of strategy, it is necessary to carefully analyze the players and the table, a subtle change can mean a lot.

Having said that, we can conclude that what matters in the game is to make the best decision, we should not only play by the result. If we are always making the best choices sooner or later we will be winning, as much as we seem to be at a loss, over time with a higher sampling we should have a positive chart.

Today I played against a very aggressive player, he went several times allin, in a certain spot I raised and he just call, on the flop came a A he took the action and it was allin, I paid holding AJ, he had A5, for his luck came a 5 after this and he won.

I play a lot of freeroll tournaments, it's common to find complicated situations, I do not always make the best decision, but the better I play it seems that it does not matter if I dedicate myself, in the end I'll be at a disadvantage. I'm trying to change my game style, study more, and focus on winning more often.

Click to expand...

Same to same here bro.:heeeellll

GL and may we find what we seek:wink:

Hmmmm?

Sounds like online poker to me...The player going all in often. Online is crazy, and the fact that he pulled a 5 is no surprise. Key is, don't be too square in live poker. Feel your options remember your only in command if you take command.

Play tighter and play more tournaments. The higher the volume, the higher the chance your hand will eventually hold.

I've seen a lot of graphics, the variance is not the same for everyone, some almost do not feel the effect of it, so I think it has a way of slowing down, it's a matter of studying hard and adjusting the weaknesses.

Volume counters variance. And in the long run you will definitely see profits (given you are playing a good strategy and learning). That's what I believe.

do not play

to reduce variance:
- play more TAG than LAG
- look for deep stack, rather than hyper MTT's
- consider staking

I'm not sure you can recuce variance. Variance is going to happen no matter what.

There are styles that can be higher variance and styles that are lower variance short term but over the long haul poker is going to trend both ways.

That is IF you are playing correctly.

This happens all the time, but have the inclination to only remember our bad beats, but should note the times that we also gained on the river or with pre flop weaker. Lose in such a situation is to give a lot of sadness. Who gets not forget who beats do not remember.

elizeuof said:

The game of poker requires a lot of strategy, it is necessary to carefully analyze the players and the table, a subtle change can mean a lot.

Having said that, we can conclude that what matters in the game is to make the best decision, we should not only play by the result. If we are always making the best choices sooner or later we will be winning, as much as we seem to be at a loss, over time with a higher sampling we should have a positive chart.

Today I played against a very aggressive player, he went several times allin, in a certain spot I raised and he just call, on the flop came a A he took the action and it was allin, I paid holding AJ, he had A5, for his luck came a 5 after this and he won.



I play a lot of freeroll tournaments, it's common to find complicated situations, I do not always make the best decision, but the better I play it seems that it does not matter if I dedicate myself, in the end I'll be at a disadvantage. I'm trying to change my game style, study more, and focus on winning more often.

Click to expand...

Dave Freis said:

Sounds like online poker to me...The player going all in often. Online is crazy, and the fact that he pulled a 5 is no surprise. Key is, don't be too square in live poker. Feel your options remember your only in command if you take command.

Click to expand...

Thanks for this. I'm a newer live game player and this advice is perfect for me. It really is harder to show strength and take command in a live setting than online. Real chips and real people make poker a much different and (in my opinion) more enjoyable experience.

Hopefully as my comfort level increases so will the frequency of my 'taking command' of the pot. For now I'm playing winning poker, but I feel like I don't have a huge edge and can be pushed off my hands maybe a little too easily.

Variance is a double edged sword. We all walk the razors edge from time to time getting bad beats, and dealing bad beats to others. All we can do is continue to play, and hope that in time the edge swings in our favor.


"Sometimes your the fox, sometimes your the hunter. Regardless your both chasing something, survival."

Dispersion does not reduce.

Dispersion is a characteristic of a random variable that does not change with the number of measurements.
Increasing the number of measurements (the number of played hands) you can only increase the accuracy of measurement, but the dispersion can not be reduced. And even then, measurement accuracy is enhanced only if the measured value is constant. Well, that is, if you have the same skill, then playing three years, you will get a more accurate value of your skill than playing a year (with the dispersion being the same in that and in another case!). But your skill will also change in three years, so by increasing the number of measurements you cannot achieve anything here.
In the hand you played optimally. Play more and increase the skill of your game, and you probably won't be able to reduce the variance.
And yes, I'm a little tedious

Variance is a *****. But play well- and when you can, run it more than once. Focus on your decision more than the outcome. Easier said than done. I know. lol. Consistency is key. I've been running ICE cold in CC freerolls this month, a/i opponents have used their one time, dozens of times thus far. One FT recently, I got in good a/i 5 times and lost 4 of them..... Been 2 outed on the river after the chips were in several times this month and ONE outed on the river after the chips in 3x. 2 of the 3 to the last Q in the deck- that B1tch That's just in CC freerolls and just in January...
But that's OK.
You HAVE to get lucky to win a decent size MTT. But you have to be good to consistently have a shot.... And luck will turn. Example, I was lucky to click register with less than a minute left in registration on an 846 player MTT recently. The tourney had already been running 2 hours and 59 mins so had some catching up to do... Took it down about 3 hours later. Focus more on your decisions, and your attitude. That's all you can control. (I struggle with both but try and stay mindful of them)

you just have to refuse to play turbo and hyper turbo tournaments, and temporarily play deep stacks with a smooth structure.

elizeuof said:

I've seen a lot of graphics, the variance is not the same for everyone, some almost do not feel the effect of it, so I think it has a way of slowing down, it's a matter of studying hard and adjusting the weaknesses.

Click to expand...

In a big enough or I should say long enough graph variance plays out the same for all of us. Today, or this week, or this month it might seem like it's on the other guys side but realistically over the big picture it will even itself out. All we can do is make the best decisions we can in every situation and hope variance is on our side today.