How much of your stack do you risk to set mine?

teepack

teepack

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This hand happened to me in the Seniors Event at the wsop Circuit stop in Cherokee in April.

It was near the end of the eighth level (last level to rebuy). A couple of players who had just re-entered the tournament sat down. I had worked my way up from a starting stack of 10,000 to a little over 40,000 when the hand in question occurred.

I was in the cutoff and got pocket 6s. UTG+1 limped in (he had around 8,500). The BB was 500 so I limped (I try to set mine as cheaply as possible). It folded to the small blind who raised to 2,500. He had just bought in so was around 10,000. The big blind called (he had also recently bought in and was around 12,000). The short stack shoved his 8,500 into the middle. With two players in the blinds behind me, both of whom were likely to call, I figured the right move was to fold. I didn't want to risk 30 percent of my stack trying to chase a set, especially since I was only in for 500 chips and there would likely be at least 2 if not 3 other players.

I fold, both blinds called. One player had pocket 8s, one guy has A-9 and the other has K-J suited. Needless to say I felt good about the fold with a higher pair and four overcards. The flop contained a king, which made me feel even better, but then the turn was a 6!

I think I made the right move, but it sure would have been nice to scoop what turned out to be a pot worth about 32,000 chips, especially considering I got moved to another table after that and didn't win a hand the rest of the day (except for one chopped pot).

My general rule of thumb is to risk no more than 10 percent of my stack when I am obviously set mining (8s or lower and I believe there will be at least three to see the flop). If I had thought the blinds would have folded, I would have called. I'll risk a little more if I can isolate a weak/desperate player and I think he might be playing a weak ace.
 
Luvepoker

Luvepoker

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I would not worry about the % of the stack i would risk as much as how much I could win. Depending of where you look, any time you are set mining you should make sure you have the ability to win 12-15 times the amount you are risking to set mine. Even though you may be only risking say 3% of your stack if you are are set mining for maybe 500 chips but the player that you just called had 3000 the amount you can win wont make up for the time you miss the flop and fold. In this situation you would be better off raising instead of calling.

As for the hand you played, i would have raised the limper to 1750 and would have folded if the BB raised it up. Had you raised him the blinds may have folded and you would have had position and could represent a better hand on the flop with a c-bet if you missed it.

You made the correct move and folded once you were re-raised by the way.

So how did you do in the event if i may ask?

May the flop be with you
 
GameTheoryOptional

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For me I usually go with the rule of 10. If I can win 10x as much as I put in pre-flop when I hit a set then it is a good call to make. If not then I do not setmine.
 
teepack

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I don't think a raise would have accomplished anything there, except cause me to lose more chips. Maybe the SB, BB and UTG+1 flat my raise and I get to see a flop, but I doubt it. And I would have been out after the flop because whichever player had the K-J suited on the K-X-X board would have certainly shoved given their remaining stacks and the size of the pot. But I think UTG+1 still shoves pre-flop when it gets back to him, at which point I am folding because of the other two players still in the hand, which means I would have lost 1750 instead of 500.

I ended up going out around 300th. The top 99 made the money out of 989 players. I went horribly chip dead after I got moved to a new table. I got a steady stream of 8-3, 4-2, 7-3, 10-5, 5-2 (which I got two hands in a row and three hands in five at one point) for almost 90 minutes except for about three hands. No pocket pairs. No Aces. No suited connectors. No Broadway combos. Nothing. One hand I wound up chopping when the river paired the board and saved my kicker problem (got desperate and played Ace-rag from early position). Another hand I tried a bluff and it failed miserably (he shoved me; never bluff the big stack). And another hand I had a flush/open-ended straight draw after the flop and could not hit or get the other player to fold with my C-bets. Just wasn't my day.
 
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Mepper95

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Sorry to hear about the downhill slope your tournament went on after this particular hand, but I think you made the correct play by folding. I agree with the other people replying here. It's not as much as how much % you're risking, but how much you can win. A cheap multiway flop is always nice with a low-medium pocket pair to me :)
 
teepack

teepack

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For me I usually go with the rule of 10. If I can win 10x as much as I put in pre-flop when I hit a set then it is a good call to make. If not then I do not setmine.

How do you calculate the 10x factor? If you bet 1000 and two players call, that's 3000, which is just 2x the 1000 chips you put in preflop. Are you assuming these players are going to continue to put in money? You would have to bet 4000 after the flop for them both to call to get it up to 10x ROI your pre-flop investment of 1000. If one of them were to fold, you'd haev to bet 4000 again on the turn or river and hope the other player calls (and doesn't have you beat) to achieve your goal of winning 10x your preflop bet. That seems very hard to calculate.

Ken said you need to win 12-15 times your preflop investment ,but again, how do you calculate that your opponents will call your bets?
 
teepack

teepack

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Sorry to hear about the downhill slope your tournament went on after this particular hand, but I think you made the correct play by folding. I agree with the other people replying here. It's not as much as how much % you're risking, but how much you can win. A cheap multiway flop is always nice with a low-medium pocket pair to me :)

I agree. Emphasis on "cheap" multi-way pot.

I don't think its advantageous to try to build a pot pre-flop with mid or small pocket pairs in a multi-way flop. I ran the numbers on the CC odds Calculator, and I was 16 percent preflop. My understanding of equity is you don't try to build equity when your equity is low.

If I had been the SB or BB and it folded to me after the UTG+1 limp, then I would have raised him and if he shoved, I would likely have called. I'll take a chance on winning a flip in a heads-up pot against a small stack (i.e. less than 20-25 percent of my holdings), especially one that has shown weakness by limping. But not in a multi-way.
 
Luvepoker

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Ken said you need to win 12-15 times your preflop investment ,but again, how do you calculate that your opponents will call your bets?

You truly cant calculate what your opponents will put into the pot but to make sure of worth you putting in the chips in the 1sr place. Lets say the limper has 4500 and the blinds are 500/1000. The big blind had 7000. You call and only the BB goes to the flop. If you flop the set and if lucky you will get one of the players to put in all there chips. Its much less likely you would get both of them. If you get the 1st limper to commit all his chips you would win his 4500 and the 1500 from the blinds for 6000 chips gain of 6 times the amount you invest into the pot. If it was the BB who committed toy would gain 8500 chips or 8.5 times the amount you invest. As you can see in this instance over time your calling would be -EV. Yes you would win chips today but when you think of the times you do flop the set and they all fold of the times you miss the flop and fold, you can see the problem with calling without there having the chips to make it worthwhile.

The formula for figuring out would be adding the 2 blinds chips and only the player with the most chips that you could win divided the big blind.
 
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