How much luck is needed in large fields?

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RamdeeBen

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Hello again all.

When you're getting in a tournament with thousands of participates is it purely a luck based game? I'm not disputing that poker is a skill but these large tournaments with many participants seem quite luck based. This is based on results i'v seen on playing who win or get to the final table.

When i check their stats, it's this one tournament that actually give them a positive ROI and iv seen someone winning 5k in a 1dollar by in with only a profit long term of around 500dollars. This must mean that they have blown away 4,500 grand on tournaments previously and they are ITM like only 5% of the time.

This leads me to the conclusion that actually large field tournaments are actually just a breeding ground for bad playing who hope and in many cases do get lucky to finish on the final table.

Does anyone know of anyone who actually consistently does well with thousands of participators? If not, then would you say these large field tournaments are just a waste of money if you are a tight player who trys to actually play poker properly? Meaning you haven't really got a cat in hells chance of performing well enough ?

If that is the case then what sort of field sizes do you recommend in MTT to consistently make a long term profit? I seem to do ok at around 200-500 participants..

Your views and thoughts would br great, many thanks.
 
OnyxPanther

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In my experience, (which is playing freerolls 7-40k players and very little cash) I have found that luck does play its part in beating out large fields of players consistantly but for me this usually only comes into play late in the tournaments where I am getting behind due to large blinds. In the beggining of the tournament you should play TAG with loose tendancies when the table will let you see flops cheaply. When around 1/2 to 3/4's of the players are eliminated you should be tightening down but still keeping in mind the value of open play, i.e. suited connectors and mid drawing hands. I can't give you much advise about late in tournaments because as of recently I get to 200 or so left and am being pressured by blinds and not getting the premium hands to push and try to double up with. Try to find lessons then mtt lessons and then find the lesson entiteled M Zones... This lesson offered me some advise on late tourny play when under blind pressure. Hope you find this helpful and find some useful advise at the academy I linked.
 
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The_Pup

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I understand your reasoning, ramdeebam, but do not agree with your conclusion.

Obviously luck is a major part of the game, or rather randomness is. We've all had aces cracked by junk and flopped a straight with 74o and so on. This chance element is inescapable and accounts for a large proportion of outcomes (anyone care to put a number on it?). When the number of hands is big enough the chance element flattens out, ie it is the same for everyone. The rest is skill.

With your specific MTT question we could imagine we enter 1000 tournaments with 1000 entrants each. Let's suppose this is a purely random game with no skill at all. We can model this with a random number generator and find we will have a fairly even distribution of numbers from 1 to 1000. Not every number will appear and a lot of numbers will be repeated (try it - there are plenty online) but we can expect 10% of numbers to be 1-100, 10% 101-200 and so on. What a skilled poker player is doing is weighting this 'randomness' towards to low numbers; it is as if the random number generator is skewed towards the top end. Yes they will get a 900+ or that all too painful button number, but they will have more than 10% in top 100, more than 20% in top 200 and so on.

When we look at a skilled player's results over say 500 games it could quite easily be the case that although the RNG is skewed to the top end they haven't yet got to a final table and are making a loss, but they could be making a lot less of a loss than a random distribution would give them. When that number 1 or 2 or 3 finally comes up they are suddenly in the black and it looks as you describe.

Success in tournament poker comes from having an edge that means you have a better than 1/1000 chance of hitting the number one spot. Much like the rest of life, really...
 
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RamdeeBen

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I understand what you mean with that. A skilled player is going to be able to beat the 1/1000 chance of getting that first spot with a fair few final tables, "ITM finishes" maybe even put them in top three places once or twice hense giving them a decent profit over time - maybe even win once or more.

Thanks for your insight.

Thanks to panther i'm going to check that out also, cheers buddy,
 
Daniel72

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The variance is obv. higher, but when you play thousands of large field MTT´s like MI_turtle or shaundeeb then there´s no more "luck involved". If you hate variance, just play smaller fields and you build self confidence, because you reach a final table once or twice a week...
 
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aprig

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Big variance in large fields.Jamie Gold would be a good example in the wsop :D when he won it.U can't say a tight player can't survive a big tourney just because he isn't lucky.
 
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Bovinity

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To answer the original question:

How much luck is needed in large fields?

The answer is really "a lot". =D If you're planning on playing large MTT's, you have to get used to the fact that you can play your absolute best and still never win one.
 
Poker Orifice

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Hello again all.

When you're getting in a tournament with thousands of participates is it purely a luck based game? I'm not disputing that poker is a skill but these large tournaments with many participants seem quite luck based. This is based on results i'v seen on playing who win or get to the final table.

When i check their stats, it's this one tournament that actually give them a positive ROI and iv seen someone winning 5k in a 1dollar by in with only a profit long term of around 500dollars. This must mean that they have blown away 4,500 grand on tournaments previously and they are ITM like only 5% of the time.
Try checking out the stats. on a high buyin MTT (one that isn't fed by satellites!!)... ie. the $30K-$100-6max, the $200K ($200rebuy), etc. Check the stats. of the players on the final few tables & you'll see the large majority of them are regularly winning players. (most of the winning MTT regs. have an ITM of 9-12%).

In the large field MTT's that are fed by sattys, sure you're going to see a couple of newbs &/or regularly losing players who've gone deep in a big one. (I think it's good for online poker when these players win... more deadmoney in future MTTs).

This leads me to the conclusion that actually large field tournaments are actually just a breeding ground for bad playing who hope and in many cases do get lucky to finish on the final table.
Why would you conclude this? Good MTT players will always have an advantage over a bad player. OF course they'll need 'luck' in order to go deep (ie. have their big hands actually hold up, & win the occassional flip, etc.).

Does anyone know of anyone who actually consistently does well with thousands of participators? If not, then would you say these large field tournaments are just a waste of money if you are a tight player who trys to actually play poker properly? Meaning you haven't really got a cat in hells chance of performing well enough ?
There are many regularly winning players in MTT's. Being a 'winning player' doesn't mean you're cashing ITM 25% (although in micros it's not uncommon) but instead it relates to running deep often enough to have a decent winrate in the 'longrun'. There are tons of MTT players who have profits in excess of $100k in MTTs (and some in excess of $1mill, some with more than $2mil).

If that is the case then what sort of field sizes do you recommend in MTT to consistently make a long term profit? I seem to do ok at around 200-500 participants..
.

"It depends",... MTT regs. suggest having 100buyins in your bankroll. Alot of MTT regs. are also playing the 45plyr. SNG's &/or the 90plyr. KO's. The MTT/SNG is sort of like they're 'bread & butter' game... as MTT play comes with having long periods of no significant cashes at times.

I play some of the large field stuff but also mix in some other MTTs that have around 100-200 entrants.
 
ztw30

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In reality orifice put it right.....not to repeat but the large feilds are to try and get that big pay day..but the weak SNG MTT's are bread and butter the $4 180 are really soft comp. and thats where you will make a steady win rate...then just use a little of that to try and cash in these big MTT's lucky always plays a roll but as soon as you start tying to "use" luck you become a fish just like the rest of the feild.
 
Poker Orifice

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Hello again all.

If not, then would you say these large field tournaments are just a waste of money if you are a tight player who trys to actually play poker properly? Meaning you haven't really got a cat in hells chance of performing well enough ?

.

This sentence stuck out for me.... 'playing properly' in an MTT means making adjustments to the other players on your table, as well as making necessary adjustments in play in relation to your stack size & how it relates to the size of the blinds... and to the size of rest of the stacks on your table.
ie. quite often (situationally dependent obv.) when you're sitting on a resteal-sized stack of say 15-25bb's and you're in LP or in the blinds and an overly aggressive player who's been opening up alot of pots comes in for a raise, you'll need to be shipping in the pile with stuff like QTs, J9s, etc. (situationally dependant obviously... but just an example).

You're never (or rarely ever) going to win an MTT by playing 'tight' (aka 'proplerly' <?) in mid to late stages of an MTT - sitting & waiting for big hands is a recipe for failure.
hope this helps....
 
SlySwagga

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Luck i believe diminishes very much the higher the buy-in is. So w that in mind, as good as u r u'll still get donked out of those tourneys.

Save up and start playing buy ins $10 and higher. U'll still see ur occasional donkey but there wont be as many.

Just my $0.02
 
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I've pretty much decided to give large MTTs a miss till I move up higher limits.. micros is just too unpredictable theres always a few fish around who manage to build up a large stack and no matter how much you raise they will call with there 9-10 suited and oh what do ya know flop comes 9-10-10 or someshit...

Every flop has to go your way really or having the right people at your table aswell
 
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dan abnormal

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I notice a lot of times the palyers who seem to do the best usually arent the ones that build these big stacks early but the ones who just pick spots and then once the blinds and antes start getting big, they kick it into high gear and take down big pots. People who I think are about to be blinded out start pushing and next thing I know they are suddenly top 10 or something. Blows my mind. I myself am trying to just play all the way through from beginning to end and I seem to be a slow builder If I get a stack built at all, but I know I gotta get my stuff together
 
Kountess

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Yesss you need a lot of Luck & skill...
 
CopyCat

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I made 6 final tables last month in the $1.10 to $3.30 pokerstars. won 1 placed 2nd 3rd etc.Anyways in my short experience with these tourneys i like them as big as possible more $$$ when u make it.
I find myself buying in alot of tourneys at this range Cheap and nasty but the rewards are better than the local pub with a $20 dollar buyin.
1 to 3 dollars for the chance to win $1000 to $2000 or so thats pretty good odds

I limit my byins now to $30 a day 1.10 to 3.30 3 different sessions per day at $10 a session. Started last month and have cashed just under $2000 for the month with a starting bank roll of $30.Well it seems to be working for me with some good advice from CC forums. Thanx CC
 
JasonD1014

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luck it definitely a big part of large field tourneys, but so is patience. sometimes you gotta wait forever for a hand, and sometimes that hand never comes and you gotta get lucky
 
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RamdeeBen

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Oh my god copycat!

Thats brilliant, can you give me some pointers. It seems you have it worked out well..
 
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In any one tourney luck plays a part. The winner of a 2000 player tourney had AA hold against 55 and busted AKs with an A6 steal attempt and flopped a straight when a player flopped a set and made a boat when a player hit a straight and.........

But we aren't interested in one tournament but many. No-one makes a profit over 1000 tourneys by just getting lucky. We make good decisions, +EV decisions and take money from those making bad decisions. When our AA gets cracked by 55 and we get knocked out we should be pleased because we will lose that hand one time in five but we made a +EV play because the other four times we double up. The fact we lost that one hand makes no difference at all to our poker lives.
 
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Eclipsenz

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I feel a big cash is around the corner for me in these, had a few this month last 5 have been like this.. 500th out of 3k or so, 200 out of 3k or so.. 50 out of 4k and 30th out of 6k.

who you have at the table does make a big difference i.e I was at a table where everyone was 60-10 it was madness.. I could only do so much and today I went out early to some guy going all in with his J10 I called with AK..

Imo you gotta get some big pots and in ways the only way to do that is against donks, or flop a massive hand and bust someones aces, I.E flop a straight or something.
 
trinitus

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I don't agree that u can not play good poker on large fields, I think ur patience have to be greater than in the smaller fields. You have to understand that in large fields there is a lot of players just trying luck, but don't worry about them since they will be gone the first to the second hour into the tournament. However u have to be careful when u are involve in a hand since they tend to chase draws and higher cards making u susceptible to suck outs. Anyway i found that if u want to get better at large fields over 2000 plyrs and have the time for it, try the freerolls at fulltilt and ps. and see how far can u get, do a couple day if u can and overtime u will notice that u get deeper as u play more and more.
 
xdeucesx

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its not a stroke of luck that phil hellmuth has the most tournament cashes, or Phil Ivey happens to be the best player in the world and holds 8 bracelets, etc... Luck has a part, but playing solid, positional poker will most likely give you a good chance to cash or atleast have a chance
 
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skill is the most important thing which will bring you success in long run
luck may only help you in winning few games but will not help you in becoming a successful poker player
 
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After playing a number of large tournaments recently, I'm going with both. I know that yesterday despite playing fairly well, there were times when the river just wasn't nice to me.

But I can deal with that. Next up for me is to review my last couple of tournaments to see where I made mistakes....
 
daxter70

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"to infinity and beyond.........":icon_geek
 
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learn2playmyson

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look at the final table of the wsopme...i think this is an answer!?
 
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