How To: MTT Bubble Play

Status
Not open for further replies.
StormRaven

StormRaven

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 16, 2009
Total posts
2,510
Chips
0
MTT Bubble Play

A few months ago I had the unpleasant experience of bubbling in an mtt. Nearly four hours of play and nothing to show for it: I was frustrated to say the least. To make matters worse, I then bubbled three more times that day, four bubbles in one day! I set a new personal record for myself, but alas, I couldn’t find the cookie fairy to hand out my prize!

Distraught with my obviously poor performance (and no cookie!), I made it my mission to research my hand histories and articles about bubble play to figure out where I went wrong. I discovered some fatal flaws in my line of thinking while playing near the bubble, and after reading through various poker forums, I discovered there are many players with the same fatal flaws.

(I’d like to take credit for this entire article but because I had to research the mistakes I was making, most of the items listed are ideas I read about from multiple sources during my research. I am going off memory and putting the information into my own words. I will not be addressing icm calculations, most of the math is beyond my capabilities, but please feel free to bring it up in your responses.)

Fatal Flaws:

1. As long as you’re making the money in most of your mtt’s then you’re doing well.
2. Making it in the money is better than not making it in the money.
3. It feels good to make the money.
4. At least you made the money.

Fixing the Flaws:

1. Wrong! You are aware of EV - expected value? If you play in a tournament for several hours, only to just make it in the money, then you are losing out on a lot of expected value by not trying to make the big money. You are also basically wasting your time! Next time you squeak into the money, calculate how much it cost you to be in the tournament, subtract that number from the amount you’ve won: now take the number of hours and minutes you have invested in the tournament and divide your profits into your total time to find out how much you really made. Ex: $10 profit / 3 ½ hrs (210 min) invested = .05 cents per hr. Do you still believe you are doing well?

*(If you find yourself only squeaking just in the money most of the time, instead of going deep, then you have some leaks in your game you need to research and address).

2. Wrong! Please see the example above. Do you really want to play poorly by not trying to maximize ev in order to make just pennies an hour? I would rather not make it in the money, but know that I played well, than play poorly just to squeak in for pennies. Let us not forget that one of the most important goals in poker is to strive to make good decisions and fewer mistakes than your opponents. If your good play with a flopped set gets sucked out on by the calling station chasing his gut sho,t then you should still feel good about yourself and your play because you played correctly. Most of the time your good play is going to pay off and most of the time it’s going to be good play (skill) that gets you to the final table.

3. Sigh… Please notice I said “It feels good to make the money” and not “It feels good to make money”? We play poker to make money, not the money. Each time you play an mtt, you should play in the way that will be the most profitable; squeaking into the money is not it. Most of the money to be made in an mtt is in the top few spots, therefore, it is these top spots that should be on your mind when you play. If your play does not reflect this at all times then you will not make many final tables and will eternally condemn yourself to be just a nickel an hour earner.

4. Please reread 1, 2 & 3 above. Saying something like “At least you made the money” is what people say to console each other or themselves to feel better. This thinking is very flawed! Why reward yourself for getting lucky and squeaking in the money? Any lucky donk can squeak into the money; it takes skill to go deep and/or make the final table! When all I do is go out in the bottom tier of the money - I get mad! I should have done better! I read through my hand histories and find where my mistakes are and make a mental note to learn from them. Think about this next time you post about making the money and one of the regulars responds with: “Do better”. Most of them aren’t trying to be jerks, they’re sending you a message, kind of like a coach, and you should listen to it!

*When I make the money in an mtt, I look at the lobby to see how many players are left. I do not concentrate on how many players I have to beat out in order to make it to the next pay tier; I know many players who do this, again this is flawed. Instead, I look and see that there are 800 players left, I tell myself “Just 791 players to go to make the final table”. Try this and see if it helps you focus a bit more on playing correctly, instead of comfortably during your next mtt.

Bubble Strategy:

*Step it up: steal, steal, steal! This is the perfect time to steal blinds and accumulate a larger stack for the final table. Chances are you have some timid short and medium stacks at the table that have slowed down, waiting for a premium hand to shove with, or are laying low hoping to squeak into the money. Before you reach this stage in the tournament, you should already have notes on your opponents so you know who you can bully, and who will play back at you. This is about the only time in a tournament that ring game play will be very similar to tournament play; aggressiveness is the key during this stage and if the table is allowing you to get away with it, then steal, steal, steal!

* Putting on the brakes. If you have a very active table, lots of preflop raisers, players willing to play back at you, etc; then slow things down. Chances are your steal attempts will only cost you chips or worse, your tournament life.

*Don’t mess with the big dogs! Even if you are one of the larger stacks, or even the largest stack at your table, avoid mixing it up with others who have stack sizes close to your own. This is a fatal mistake I’ve seen many people make and they quickly go from being chip leader to short stack in just one hand. Your JJ in the cut off may look enticing to you, but when you have to go through a big stack or the chip leader, then you’ve put yourself in the position to have a wide range of Ax Kx hands knock you down a notch, or out, so play these hands cautiously around other big stacks.

*Best of luck to you in your next mtt!
 
Last edited:
Maid Marian

Maid Marian

RIP Baby BooBoo
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 2, 2009
Total posts
11,645
Chips
0
This is a very well-thought article on MTT bubble strategy, Storm. It should help all of us that have coasted into the money to step up our game & finally be the winners we all should strive to be!

I always have had an eye on how far it is to bubble...but I also keep an eye on the chip leaders. I have been chip leader from time to time, but have lost my way in order to just be ITM! Thank you so much for your insight...it should help so much!

I also agree about final table play...it is very much like a ring game and often takes much aggression to be the ultimate winner. And to take alot of notes along the way is definitely key to know who easily can be bullied & who to take seriously.
 
P

PasoTex

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 3, 2010
Total posts
162
Chips
0
Good advice, thanks very much. I was able to see some of the flaws in my game from your piece.
 
salim271

salim271

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 27, 2009
Total posts
1,678
Chips
0
Mmm I have problems myself on the bubble... I have to fix myself >_< concentrate... winnnn.... forget bubble... :) lol.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 8, 2008
Total posts
2,876
Chips
0
Excellent post Storm!!! Thanks!
 
Egon Towst

Egon Towst

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 26, 2006
Total posts
6,794
Chips
0
Nice post, Storm. :)

I think that MTT players should always aim for the final table. I do not count it a success to scrape into the lowest payouts. As you rightly say, that is a pathetic reward for your time.

There is one exception, and that is when playing in a big tourney to which you won your way through a satellite. In those circumstances, you may have invested only $20 or thereabouts, but the lowest payment is $400-$500, a reasonable payday. Here, I think the bubble assumes more importance, and there is a more rational argument for cautious play at that stage.

In the main, though, you are right and your three strategies make perfect sense.
 
salim271

salim271

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 27, 2009
Total posts
1,678
Chips
0
Ahhhhhhh nooo i was so dumb. The bigstack made a big raise preflop to 7000 and i call from the BB for about 5000 more, flop came AT7, so of course i get excited and forget 'don't mess with the bigstack.' I shove all in to take the pot there or im sure i would be way ahead... he turns over kings and almost jump for joy at donkey freerollers. The turn is the king and i almost started crying.... another four hours for nothing lol.... 126th for me guysss i'll get it eventually.
 
8Michael3

8Michael3

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 5, 2009
Total posts
456
Chips
0
Here is another golden secret to thinking about the final table: Whenever I look at my position (BTW excluding what Egon had to say I never think about just scraping into the money because you stop playing aggressively when you do think about it) I break the field down into sections and see where I will be if I mainatain that postion all the way to the FT.

eg. there are 600 players left in the tourney that started with 1800, and I'm coming 350th. So if I break this down I am in the middle portion of the field. First portion = 1-200. second portion = 200-400. and third portion = 400-600. Then I tell myself that if I maintain this postion throughout my game I will be in the middle portion of the final 9 (4-6) and if there were 3 left I would be in second position etc.

Its worked for me, because when I look at the chip leaders and compare myself to them I get ansty and try to make the game happen instead of looking for the right opportunities.

GL with it.
 
S

shnish

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Jan 3, 2010
Total posts
14
Chips
0
Your example of a $10 profit over 3 1/2 hours being equal to .05 cents an hour profit isnt even close to being correct and made me stop reading.....:D :D :D
 
T

tdude

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 11, 2009
Total posts
109
Chips
0
This is a great post. It makes a lot of sense. If you are playing to just barely make itm, you will not do well. You have to be looking ahead at all parts of the tournament. You have to think about where you are and how you can advance. That is the only way to do well in a mtt
 
T

The_Pup

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 27, 2009
Total posts
254
Chips
0
Great post storm - perhaps the most important thing you have demonstrated is that you are prepared to admit to yourself that you had a problem with your game and are big enough to go back through games and find the holes. Good on you.

Here is another golden secret to thinking about the final table: Whenever I look at my position (BTW excluding what Egon had to say I never think about just scraping into the money because you stop playing aggressively when you do think about it) I break the field down into sections and see where I will be if I mainatain that postion all the way to the FT.

eg. there are 600 players left in the tourney that started with 1800, and I'm coming 350th. So if I break this down I am in the middle portion of the field. First portion = 1-200. second portion = 200-400. and third portion = 400-600. Then I tell myself that if I maintain this postion throughout my game I will be in the middle portion of the final 9 (4-6) and if there were 3 left I would be in second position etc.

Its worked for me, because when I look at the chip leaders and compare myself to them I get ansty and try to make the game happen instead of looking for the right opportunities.

GL with it.


I particularly like this way of thinking as it is about taking the tournament as a whole and having a sense of how we are placed in the scheme of things. The most valuable thing we have in a tourney is our seat and if we can keep that till the end we have done nicely thanks very much.

I think a lot of players risk their seat too often on a coin flip when the gain is a larger stack - whilst a bigger stack is always better I don't believe it is always worth the risk. For example, I often see two medium stacks getting involved in big all-in pots with two pair against a small flush. In this situation I am looking at picking up smaller pots to maintain a position where my stack is able to withstand a few knocks when I get them and enable me to make a few plays and still be able to fold if it gets hairy.
 
salim271

salim271

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 27, 2009
Total posts
1,678
Chips
0
The idea of trying to keep in the middle of the pack is a good one, its daunting to look at the chip leaders sometimes... lol.
 
J

j_unatrix

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 28, 2009
Total posts
84
Chips
0
Yes this definately makes sense but at the same time every table is different and truly good players will adjust to your aggresion when you are near the bubble and pick you off! Lol what I said is correct but lets face it in these low buy in mtt's most people are nits near the bubbles and being aggresive will help you pick up chips easily giving you a great shot at a decent amount of mulas:cool:!!
 
sammyfive

sammyfive

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 4, 2009
Total posts
128
Chips
0
Does anyone else calculate the average chip stack at the FT early on like I do?
I think it helps to know about how many chips you will need to make the final table.
 
salim271

salim271

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 27, 2009
Total posts
1,678
Chips
0
Does anyone else calculate the average chip stack at the FT early on like I do?
I think it helps to know about how many chips you will need to make the final table.

I don't, how do you do it? Calculate how many total chips are in play and then divide by 9? Would be hard as hell in a rebuy... lol.
 
salim271

salim271

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 27, 2009
Total posts
1,678
Chips
0
Ahhh ive finally broken through a freeroll. My hands held up, i waited and i stole at the right times, when i wanted an all in called, it was called, when i didnt it wasn't... beautiful. 45 paid in the tourney freeroll and I went out in 14th, went a little card dead at the end and my chip stack stayed pretty stagnant at 200K, ended up pushing from the early position with around 180K with 88 and got called by aces, 3 dollars for about 3 hours of play, not bad. This thread really helped a lot, thanks guys!
 
StormRaven

StormRaven

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 16, 2009
Total posts
2,510
Chips
0
I haven't had time to come back and check this since I wrote it. And yes, I put in the wrong calculations - thank you for pointing that out. To stop reading due to 1 mistake seems a bit self righteous to me, but to each their own. :D

I see in the wrong example I listed, I put in time per minute, not time per hr.

For the right example:
When I wrote this, I had in mind a $5.50 mtt, barely making it in the money for $10. That is actually a $4.50 profit, 3 1/2 hrs spent = 210 minutes. So that is around $1.29 per hr. profit made.

Egon - Thank You for the kind words! I like your example and considered listing one similar to it. I see now I should have and thank you for doing it. I once railed a CC member here who had won a very expensive seat into a huge payout mtt. I actually advised that person to play like it was a satellite, to barely make the money. A few reasons for this:

1. The payout was huge. He had less than $100 invested into winning the seat and it was over $5k to squeak into the money. (He did make the money btw).

2. He was card dead something awful. He did a great job picking a couple spots to bluff and pick up a couple pots to help him squeak in but he was in no position to do a showdown with anyone as he was so card dead.

3. His tables were very aggressive with 2 chip leaders that were calling down all short and medium stacks with atc (any two cards).

8Michael3 - Great idea. Thanks for mentioning this! Sometimes watching where the chip leaders are is a bad idea as you can put too much pressure on yourself and make mistakes because of it. So whatever it takes to keep you focused on your game is a good idea.

MM / Sly / Pup & everyone else - Thank You for the compliments! If this helps others to see mistakes they are making then this article has served its purpose.
 
Weregoat

Weregoat

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 18, 2009
Total posts
665
Chips
0
Good post SR. Hope to apply it to some MTTs in the near future.
 
Last edited:
dwolfg

dwolfg

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 23, 2007
Total posts
583
Chips
0
Good information, especially considering it pointed out the importance of adjusting your play with how the table is playing. Too many times I see strategy or advise posts and blogs only endorse one style of play that may win in certain game situations, but is sure to lose in other situations. My goal for the most part is to play as loose as possible while maintaining a tight image, or play tight while somehow(more difficult) portraying a loose image.
 
BeaverTrump

BeaverTrump

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Total posts
83
Chips
0
Aggressively against players with a fine stack and players at which has flown down the little more fine
 
StormRaven

StormRaven

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 16, 2009
Total posts
2,510
Chips
0
Good information, especially considering it pointed out the importance of adjusting your play with how the table is playing. Too many times I see strategy or advise posts and blogs only endorse one style of play that may win in certain game situations, but is sure to lose in other situations. My goal for the most part is to play as loose as possible while maintaining a tight image, or play tight while somehow(more difficult) portraying a loose image.

TY! I felt the same way when I was first reading poker books & articles. It was here at CC that many people helped me to understand how to change my game up & feel that is very important. Only practice & experience will get a person there to understand when & how to do it. From your comments, you are already there. Very nice & GL to you!
 
F

FITEMAN

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 8, 2008
Total posts
167
Chips
0
Lately, I have been trying to NOT pay attention to my standing in the overall tournament standings. I can get overwhelmed by how far ahead the tournament chip leader is. Instead. I just pay attention to my table. I figure if I cant lead my table, how can I even imagine leading the entire tourney. In doing this, I have often been surprised when I finally do look at the tournament standings and find myelf close to the top.

FITEMAN
 
L

Lofwyr

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 4, 2010
Total posts
456
Chips
0
Good post. One thing I'd disagree with though, I think you absolutely should pay attention to where bubbles are. Not because you'll tighten up to them, but because then you know when you can step on the gas and steal like a maniac. Especially in tournaments with 100+ player gaps between pay jumps, people often go into bubble mode when there's 10 people that need to be eliminated before the next jump. If you can recognize the times when other people notice they're near a pay jump you can add a few more steals in and pad you stack even more.
 
lcid86

lcid86

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Feb 28, 2009
Total posts
3,191
Awards
9
US
Chips
418
I remember reading this earlier in the year and having a nice run after. I've noticed I've slipped back into some bad habits! I'm glad someone updated this post.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top