How do you account for variance in a tournament?

How do you guys factor variance in your call/bet decisions?

On the second hand of a tournament, I was dealt QQ in late position. The guy (or gal) before me limped (so the pot was 2.5xBB at this point), and I raised to 100 (2x the pot). Everybody else folds and the guy before me goes all-in.

A friend of mine, who is much better than I, later told me that this means my opponent has a lower pair than me, or AK. In either of those cases, if this was a cash game, my expected value makes this an easy call (QQ vs. AK is just over 50%, and would dominate any lower pair 4 to 1).

But this was a tournament and if I lose I get knocked out. So I can do all the expected value calculations I want, but I have no way to account for getting knocked out. Is there a way to account for that? Or do you just go by how much you like to gamble?

Thanks,
SD

PS: How do I insert a hand which I converted using TheHandConverter.com into a post? The best I could do was this text output and I could not attach files:

poker stars $1.00+$0.15 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 10 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/225429
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
CO: t1500 M = 50
BTN: t1680 M = 56
SB: t1480 M = 49.33
BB: t1500 M = 50
UTG: t1480 M = 49.33
UTG+1: t1380 M = 46
UTG+2: t1480 M = 49.33
MP1: t1500 M = 50
MP2: t1500 M = 50
Hero (MP3): t1500 M = 50
Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is MP3 with Qc Qs
2 folds, UTG+2 calls t20, 1 fold, MP2 raises to t100, Hero raises to t200, 5 folds, MP2 raises to t1500 all in, Hero calls t1300 all in
Flop: (t3050) 6c Ts Tc (2 players - 2 are all in)
Turn: (t3050) Jh (2 players - 2 are all in)
River: (t3050) Ac (2 players - 2 are all in)
Final Pot: t3050
MP2 shows Kh As (two pair, Aces and Tens)
Hero shows Qc Qs (two pair, Queens and Tens)
MP2 wins t3050

Sometimes you have to gamble in tournaments. With a hand like QQ its hard to fold to an all-in unless the guy is a total nit. Just be happy you had such a good chance against his hand. When you call and they show you AA, thats when it stings! That happened to me once a few players away from money in a 200+ dollar tourney for some added pain

Ha Ha I just got knocked out of a tourney 10 minutes ago with a pretty similar senario. $11 buy in @ bodog except I had Pocket K's and he DID flip A's. It was about the 6th or 7th hand. Sucks...

Thus is Poker.

I was dealt QQ in late position. The guy (or gal) before me limped (so the pot was 2.5xBB at this point), and I raised to 100 (2x the pot). Everybody else folds and the guy before me goes all-in.
^^
this isn't exactly how the hand went down from the HH.. in the HH it shows.. UTg+2 limps.. MP+2 rr's 5x... and 'Hero' 'min-reraises' to 200.
fwiw.. the minreraise wasn't big enough because you're pricing in any hand to call there, especially one that would raise it up 5x in the first place (typically you'd want to reraise the raiser.. another 3x to 3.5x his bet.. ie. ~325 to 375).
If the hand had played as you wrote... with the player just before you limping, you raising 5x and then him shoving over... my answer would be "tough to say". The motto.. 'it's better to just survive in early levels of a tournament' is actually pretty outdated. In many of the online MTT's you typically want to take most of the +EV plays you can. There's just not enough chips or time to sit there folding all day.
With QQ in this spot and how it played out prior to your decision here... I'd have to say 'FOLD'. Would he shove over with JJ?... You're probably looking at AA,KK,AK. (it also really depends upon what stakes this is).

If I could put villain on AK here.... I would've called in a heartbeat.
His play does look like AK (if he had AA, KK, he would've more likely re-raised you to around 550).

Poker Orifice said:

I was dealt QQ in late position. The guy (or gal) before me limped (so the pot was 2.5xBB at this point), and I raised to 100 (2x the pot). Everybody else folds and the guy before me goes all-in.
^^
this isn't exactly how the hand went down from the HH.. in the HH it shows.. UTg+2 limps.. MP+2 rr's 5x... and 'Hero' 'min-reraises' to 200.
fwiw.. the minreraise wasn't big enough because you're pricing in any hand to call there, especially one that would raise it up 5x in the first place (typically you'd want to reraise the raiser.. another 3x to 3.5x his bet.. ie. ~325 to 375).
If the hand had played as you wrote... with the player just before you limping, you raising 5x and then him shoving over... my answer would be "tough to say". The motto.. 'it's better to just survive in early levels of a tournament' is actually pretty outdated. In many of the online MTT's you typically want to take most of the +EV plays you can. There's just not enough chips or time to sit there folding all day.

Click to expand...

This was actually an STT. Single table, Double or Nothing tournament on pokerstars.

Poker Orifice said:

With QQ in this spot and how it played out prior to your decision here... I'd have to say 'FOLD'. Would he shove over with JJ?... You're probably looking at AA,KK,AK. (it also really depends upon what stakes this is).

Click to expand...

It seems the hand history remembered the hand better than I did. Next time, I will re-read it before posting.

FWIW, I appreciate your analysis. It's just the type of feedback I wish I could get on all my hands.

Just to clarify, you think I did not raise enough (in the actual hand, not my memory). And I thought I had made a pretty big raise (10x BB and 2x previous raise). Why do you like a bigger raise? What do I get by raising more than I did? What are the disadvantages, too?

What if I make a bigger raise and then he comes over the top AI, anyway?

Poker Orifice said:

If I could put villain on AK here.... I would've called in a heartbeat.
His play does look like AK (if he had AA, KK, he would've more likely re-raised you to around 550).

Click to expand...

This is the same analysis my friend gave.

Thanks for your feedback PO.

In a DON, I try to not get all-in. In any other tourney, I just hate going busto so early. The only times I get wiped out early in any tourney is with a choice like this.

It's too early in the tourney to have a handle on the other guy yet, so, unless you have played with him before, his bets really mean nothing.

Toss a coin. Take the gamble if it comes up heads. Accept whatever happens.

I don't, heres why.... i have AA only to have a donk call with AhJh, hit a flush. And the AdQh that called my all-in on KK, sob won with Ace high Flush, the same with AK.
Thats the variance in tournament's i see. Some THINK they have the best preflop, yet call like a donkey.
You would be smart not to call an all-in preflop with AJ Suited.
You will aways have someone call you. Don't play to many MTTs at a time, they will kill you. The variance is to high..
Poker Orifice Maybe you would like, to tell that to the one, in the freeroll on carbon, that called with AJ suited, well he was OOP....

kidkvno1 said:

I don't, heres why.... i have AA only to have a donk call with AhJh, hit a flush. And the AdQh that called my all-in on KK, sob won with Ace high Flush, the same with AK.
Thats the variance in tournament's i see. Some THINK they have the best preflop, yet call like a donkey.
You would be smart not to call an all-in preflop with AJ Suited.
You will aways have someone call you. Don't play to many MTTs at a time, they will kill you. The variance is to high..
Poker Orifice Maybe you would like, to tell that to the one, in the freeroll on carbon, that called with AJ suited, well he was OOP....

Click to expand...

With tournaments that's over simplified.

It depends upon your stack size and your opponents opening or shoving range (and therefore his stack size)

With effective stacks of 100bb AJs is a bad hand to open with in EP let alone call a shove with.

When effective stacks are say 10bb AJs is an excellent choice to open/ shove / call whatever.

When getting all in position doesn't matter.

Postion decreases in valuse as the SPR decreases. Thus the deeper the remaining stack the more important position is and the shallower the remaining stack the less iprotant position is.

When he calls an AI / shoves with AJ there is no remaining effective stack.. therefore there is no positional advantage.

Stu_Ungar said:

With tournaments that's over simplified.

It depends upon your stack size and your opponents opening or shoving range (and therefore his stack size)

With effective stacks of 100bb AJs is a bad hand to open with in EP let alone call a shove with.

When effective stacks are say 10bb AJs is an excellent choice to open/ shove / call whatever.

When getting all in position doesn't matter.

Postion decreases in valuse as the SPR decreases. Thus the deeper the remaining stack the more important position is and the shallower the remaining stack the less iprotant position is.

When he calls an AI / shoves with AJ there is no remaining effective stack.. therefore there is no positional advantage.

Click to expand...

Ok, blinds i think were 150/300, he raised with 600, me with my last bit of chips 1400, i shoved all-in..
He had 6K in chips.

I get what your saying..