How do you account for variance in a tournament?
How do you guys factor variance in your call/bet decisions?
On the second hand
of a tournament, I was dealt QQ in late position. The guy (or gal) before me limped (so the pot was 2.5xBB at this point), and I raised to 100 (2x the pot). Everybody else folds and the guy before me goes all-in.
A friend of mine, who is much better than I, later told me that this means my opponent has a lower pair than me, or AK. In either of those cases, if this was a cash game, my expected value
makes this an easy call (QQ vs. AK is just over 50%, and would dominate any lower pair 4 to 1).
But this was a tournament and if I lose I get knocked out. So I can do all the expected value calculations I want, but I have no way to account for getting knocked out. Is there a way to account for that? Or do you just go by how much you like to gamble?
PS: How do I insert a hand which I converted using TheHandConverter.com into a post? The best I could do was this text output and I could not attach files:
Poker Stars $1.00+$0.15 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 10 players - http://www.thehandconverter.com/hands/225429
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
CO: t1500 M = 50
BTN: t1680 M = 56
SB: t1480 M = 49.33
BB: t1500 M = 50
UTG: t1480 M = 49.33
UTG+1: t1380 M = 46
UTG+2: t1480 M = 49.33
MP1: t1500 M = 50
MP2: t1500 M = 50
Hero (MP3): t1500 M = 50
Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is MP3 with Qc Qs
2 folds, UTG+2 calls t20, 1 fold, MP2 raises to t100, Hero raises to t200, 5 folds, MP2 raises to t1500 all in, Hero calls t1300 all in
Flop: (t3050) 6c Ts Tc (2 players - 2 are all in)
Turn: (t3050) Jh (2 players - 2 are all in)
River: (t3050) Ac (2 players - 2 are all in)
Final Pot: t3050
MP2 shows Kh As (two pair, Aces and Tens)
Hero shows Qc Qs (two pair, Queens and Tens)
MP2 wins t3050