How to bluff when the board pairs

[schismist]

Hi,

Early in a MTT, I played the first several rounds uncharacteristically tight-passive, and so I started to look for an opportunity for a spot to pull a big bluff. Anyway, it didn't work despite my read's being correct. Here's what happened. Can anyone tell me if I did something wrong, or suggest another way to play it?

In the CO six-handed, blinds are 50/100, and my stack is slightly smaller than average at around 5k. It's folded to me with A8o, so I go for a steal-raise to 250. BB calls.

Flop: K 6 4 rainbow

SB bets 300. I call.

Turn: K, still rainbow

SB bets 500. My read says he's bluffing or is blocking with second or third pair, so I raise to 2000, looking for a fold. He re-raises all-in. I don't have much left in my stack at this point, so I call. He shows 74o.
Why is it obvious I don't have a king or 6? Does he not fear the K because I didn't raise him on the flop? Would it be better to call again and ship it on the river?
Thanks for your help.

 

[mrmonkey]

Yikes to this hand.

1. What are the stakes? How big is villain's stack?

2. Why are you so certain you can make your opponent fold?

3. What is your reason for calling the flop bet with A8o?

4. Why are you so certain of your read on the turn cbet that he's bluffing or doing this with middle/bottom pair? Is it not possible that HE has a king?

5. Since your bluff failed, why in heavens are you calling off your stack which still has 20bb remaining against his all-in on the turn with A8o?

To answer your question, it's not obvious that you don't have a K or a 6. But there are also a lot of bad players that are trying to pull off a big play for no very good reason and make you fold like you tried to make him fold, and bad players that will just call you or shove all in for the fun of it. I'm guessing this was a freeroll or a very low-stakes game. In general don't try to bluff bad players. You can't really bluff someone who isn't even thinking about what you might be holding.

 

[schismist]

Thanks for your response. Great questions.

1. $40 live, four tables. I can't remember the stacks exactly. I think I must have had more like 4k because I had 1.5k left after he shoved. He probably had around 7k.

2. He's folded to raises before, and I know his hand is weak. I would fold with bottom pair here. Wouldn't you?

3. I don't want him to think he can resteal in the future, and I can either peel an A or 8, or bluff him off on a later street (I thought).

4. After his bet, he gives me a challenging stare rather than looking away or at the board. Caro would say this means weakness. He also made a lot of cbets oop on previous hands. He called a small steal from BB.

5. If he's got bottom pair, I have 9 outs to pair my hand or counterfeit him, with pot odds of 4.4:1. I don't like my chances in the tournament with only 1.5k. It's still possible he has air.

I don't think he was a bad player. I think he correctly read my bluff.

If the answer is not to try to bluff anyone off mediocre hands early in the tournament, at these stakes, that's fine. I'll cut it out. But if my bluffs are only failing because they're not believeable, I want to improve my bluffing skills.

 

[pfb8888]

he probably read you were bluffing...just like you read he didnt have a k

 

[schismist]

he probably read you were bluffing...just like you read he didnt have a k

Exactly. I agree. Now, I'm trying to figure out what gave it away, and how I should have played it instead.

 

[LombardiStix]

40$ live is a bit of a crap shoot. Lets say this guy knows a bit about poker in order to conjure up a relevant response.

You've been relatively tight... I don't see you springing the 2000 raise out of nowhere unless it was a bluff. It looks to me like you don't want a call in this situation. Annnd if you don't want a call you certainly don't want a re-raise. I think you played it like a bluff instead of playing the hand like you had what you were trying to represent.

Smaller raise gives you the info you need and looks stronger on your side.

 

[schismist]

Smaller raise gives you the info you need and looks stronger on your side.

Raise less than 60% of the pot? I would expect him to fold only hands I could beat if the raise were smaller.

 

[bgomez89]

You both played the hand awfully /endthread

 

[baudib1]

Raise or fold flop, it's a bad board to float.

 

[schismist]

You both played the hand awfully /endthread

I agree I made a mistake. There's no need to post in the thread if you have no interest in helping me improve.

Raise or fold flop, it's a bad board to float.

I agree, and I think this is the lesson I'm taking away from this. If I had anything, I would probably have raised on the flop, so calling with the intention of taking it away later is too suspicious. Do you have any guidelines about what makes a board good or bad to float? Thanks!

 

[bullishwwd]

I agree I made a mistake. There's no need to post in the thread if you have no interest in helping me improve.

I agree, and I think this is the lesson I'm taking away from this. If I had anything, I would probably have raised on the flop, so calling with the intention of taking it away later is too suspicious. Do you have any guidelines about what makes a board good or bad to float? Thanks!

Good post.

Seems like "when I read that opponent is bluffing", they usually are NOT. And, I get burned...big leak.

 

[MediaBLITZ]

Well I would think of it as a big continuity error in your bluff story if you didn't rep the K on the flop but on the turn you now all of sudden want to rep it with a huge overbet. If you actually had a K with that no draw board and another come on the turn, you would definitely want me to go all the way to the end with you. But as you said, you raised it to 2000 on the turn looking for a fold - if you were holding a K you would not be looking for a fold. A flat call there would have been much more worrisome than what you did. Float the turn and take it to the river to shove and he probably goes away. I sure would.

 

[schismist]

Okay, so this is what I'm taking away from all this.

1. Only float wet boards.
2. Pay more attention to the plausability of represented holdings' fitting with my play on earlier rounds.
3. Pay more attention to villain's propensity to fold rather than the weakness of his hand.
4. If I want to represent a connection with a paired board when I can't possibly be holding an overpair, I need to make it look like I'm slowplaying (if I'm playing a multiple-level thinker).

Thanks!

 

[CuttleFish]

I tried to play this hand in my head and i didnt buy your bluff either. Look at it from his perspective: From his perspective he's holding rags. If he knows that you know a bit about what youre doing then your bet to steal looks like the right size for a steal. In which case he knows you are holding ATC and is therefore justified in calling with his ATC. He hits on the flop. If he knows the odds of hitting a pair on the flop are 1 in 3 then if he has hit it is likely you havent. If you have then he would be looking for a "reply" which is why he bets 300. you call here rather than raise which most likely means you have yet to hit. Rainbow board so no fear of flush, 4 and a 6 so straight possibilities or overcards (but not K). When the next K comes on the turn, for him, nothing has changed, so he bets out 500. All of a sudden youre betting 2000???? So which is it, you have the K or dont have the K? Easy, you dont, you didnt hit, and now youre trying to bluff. I would have raised same way he did, even if I was holding 2/2. Agree 100% with Media's post above. you call the 500 then shove on the river and he would assume you'd slow played and get away.

I will qualify this by saying im pretty crap at this game so dont take my advice too seriously...............

 

[mrmonkey]

Q: 3. What is your reason for calling the flop bet with A8o?

A: 3. I don't want him to think he can resteal in the future, and I can either peel an A or 8, or bluff him off on a later street (I thought).

I think you should lead him into thinking he can steal whenever he wants. He will try an overaggressive move at a time when you land a monster. Early in the tourney and with a short stack, you don't have a ton of wiggle room for making plays and using your chips in this fashion. In order to make the bluff on the turn, you had to basically commit your stack to do so due to the size of the pot.

Q: 5. Since your bluff failed, why in heavens are you calling off your stack which still has 20bb remaining against his all-in on the turn with A8o?

A: I can't remember the stacks exactly. I think I must have had more like 4k because I had 1.5k left after he shoved. He probably had around 7k.

If he's got bottom pair, I have 9 outs to pair my hand or counterfeit him, with pot odds of 4.4:1. I don't like my chances in the tournament with only 1.5k. It's still possible he has air.

Still with 15bb remaining, I wouldn't be calling that all-in on the turn with A8o. unless the blind structure was such that I'd only be seeing maybe one more orbit. I've made comebacks with less than 15bb left in MTT with 100+ runners before, and I would prefer to take my chances with 15bb than to call off my stack when all I beat is total rags.

Yeah, maybe he has air. The way he played it, he is also representing a king. I don't play much live so perhaps you did have a good physical tell on him and were fairly certain he had a weak hand. But there are still a lot of weak hands that beat yours... like any pair or a better ace.

Even if you had x-ray vision and knew for a fact he had bottom pair and all your outs were live, with 9 outs you are getting 5:1 odds, so it's almost break-even. However, you have to adjust his range slightly because you can't know for certain that your ace or 8 would be good even if they hit on the river. In the mathematical sense, you are not getting the right odds to make the call on the turn.

Okay, so this is what I'm taking away from all this.

1. Only float wet boards.
2. Pay more attention to the plausability of represented holdings' fitting with my play on earlier rounds.
3. Pay more attention to villain's propensity to fold rather than the weakness of his hand.
4. If I want to represent a connection with a paired board when I can't possibly be holding an overpair, I need to make it look like I'm slowplaying (if I'm playing a multiple-level thinker).

Thanks!

I think you've gotten a lot from this thread. I would make a few addendum to what you have summarized though:

1. It's ok to float dry boards too if you have a specific reason to. Like if villain cbets or donk bets close to 100% of the time but then often gives up on subsequent streets.

3. Definitely do this. Some players might have weak holdings, but still won't fold. You on the turn in this very hand, for example. I'm sure a thinking villain would poop his pants a little when you made the call, as he probably didn't expect you to do so.

4. If he indeed was a good, thinking player, and if you were basically 99% certain he was holding crap and wouldn't cbet the river, then yes -- calling the turn and shoving the river or making a large value bet if he checked it to you might have gotten him off his hand if you were certain he was able to fold a semibad hand. You make it more plausible that you have a king or a full house this way as opposed to popping the turn.

 

[Poker Orifice]

When playin' donks, keep it simple! They'll give you plenty of oppurtunity to get it in good vs. them.
After the mis-step on turn, don't compound your mistake by calling off here w A8o. (I wouldn't anyways).

 

[KardKlub]

The problem with paired boards such as this is that if you had a King why would you raise turn? surely you would call and try to get him to bluff again on the river seen as you have position.

When the board pairs on the turn or river you have to think that it doesnt change his range any but it also doesnt change your. So If he bet flop what makes you think he will fold now when nothing changed.

 

[BlueNowhere]

What real hand do you play like that? Also donk-bet is quite often weak pair and he probably thought you raise a king, when the board pairs odds of you having a king do down, then you try and represent it? Don't pretend you have it when random cards come. It's like runner runner flush getting there and then deciding you want to pretend you have a flush despite playing it nothing like a flush.

Also live players are shit. No need to bluff randomly in spots. As others have said you compound your error by calling the rest of your stack off.

 

[schismist]

I get that the turn raise was awful, but calling the rest of my stack was +EV given my read. Bottom pair was the best he could have had. Whether you believe my read was that strong or not, it turned out that I called 4.4:1 pot odds with hand odds of 3.8:1. The only way you learn to read live opponents is to get feedback by making calls like that.

 

[BlueNowhere]

I get that the turn raise was awful, but calling the rest of my stack was +EV given my read. Bottom pair was the best he could have had. Whether you believe my read was that strong or not, it turned out that I called 4.4:1 pot odds with hand odds of 3.8:1. The only way you learn to read live opponents is to get feedback by making calls like that.

You're msitaking $ev with cev.

 

[schismist]

You're msitaking $ev with cev.

I'm a believer in Snyder's chip utility theory. At this stage in the tournament, I'd much rather have a 20% chance at 7.5k than a sure 1.5k.

 

[BlueNowhere]

I'm a believer in Snyder's chip utility theory. At this stage in the tournament, I'd much rather have a 20% chance at 7.5k than a sure 1.5k.

Well using Snyders chip utlity you presume you can outplay your opponents and show your skill more. Judging from this hand I think your wrong in making this assumption. Also your odds are based on him never having a king/set. Don't tell me you soul read him and knew he had a weak hand 100% of the time.

 

[schismist]

Hey, Doyle Brunson believes in ESP

 

[Lite10bet]

Just slow down and think through all of the aspects. What are you trying to represent it this bluff? How often does your opponent think you will be taking thins line with a k?
Judging from experience flat calling a k high flop then re-raising when another k hits the turn is a very peculiar play and would have rang bluff bells in my head too.
Most players will try to extract value and disguise the strength of their hand and a re-raise on the turn looks like your chasing him away.
it sounds like your read was correct so in improving the frequency your bluffs will work i would do two things:
1. Think hard about what range you are representing
2. If you have a good read and want to pull the trigger on a bluff, put your opponent to a decision. Raise more and don't leave him room to exercise his good read

 

[bremensha]

someone who is paying w/ any two cards and hits will pay anything afterwards. Otherwise his play doesn't make sense. IF he has a real hand (AQ; AJ) he will probably play too. So your play makes only sense if you and your opponent are deep stacked so that he will be afraid loosing his whole stack.