Q: 3. What is your reason for calling the flop bet with A8o?
A: 3. I don't want him to think he can resteal in the future, and I can either peel an A or 8, or bluff him off on a later street (I thought).
I think you should lead him into thinking he can steal whenever he wants. He will try an overaggressive move at a time when you land a monster. Early in the tourney and with a short stack, you don't have a ton of wiggle room for making plays and using your chips in this fashion. In order to make the bluff on the turn, you had to basically commit your stack to do so due to the size of the pot.
Q: 5. Since your bluff failed, why in heavens are you calling off your stack which still has 20bb remaining against his all-in on the turn with A8o?
A: I can't remember the stacks exactly. I think I must have had more like 4k because I had 1.5k left after he shoved. He probably had around 7k.
If he's got bottom pair, I have 9 outs to pair my hand or counterfeit him, with pot odds of 4.4:1. I don't like my chances in the tournament with only 1.5k. It's still possible he has air.
Still with 15bb remaining, I wouldn't be calling that all-in on the turn with A8o. unless the blind structure was such that I'd only be seeing maybe one more orbit. I've made comebacks with less than 15bb left in MTT with 100+ runners before, and I would prefer to take my chances with 15bb than to call off my stack when all I beat is total rags.
Yeah, maybe he has air. The way he played it, he is also representing a king. I don't play much live so perhaps you did have a good physical tell on him and were fairly certain he had a weak hand. But there are still a lot of weak hands that beat yours... like any pair or a better ace.
Even if you had x-ray vision and knew for a fact he had bottom pair and all your outs were live, with 9 outs you are getting 5:1 odds, so it's almost break-even. However, you have to adjust his range slightly because you can't know for certain that your ace or 8 would be good even if they hit on the river. In the mathematical sense, you are not getting the right odds to make the call on the turn.
Originally Posted by schismist
Okay, so this is what I'm taking away from all this.
1. Only float wet boards.
2. Pay more attention to the plausability of represented holdings' fitting with my play on earlier rounds.
3. Pay more attention to villain's propensity to fold rather than the weakness of his hand.
4. If I want to represent a connection with a paired board when I can't possibly be holding an overpair, I need to make it look like I'm slowplaying (if I'm playing a multiple-level thinker).
I think you've gotten a lot from this thread. I would make a few addendum to what you have summarized though:
1. It's ok to float dry boards too if you have a specific reason to. Like if villain cbets or donk bets close to 100% of the time but then often gives up on subsequent streets.
3. Definitely do this. Some players might have weak holdings, but still won't fold. You on the turn in this very hand, for example. I'm sure a thinking villain would poop his pants a little when you made the call, as he probably didn't expect you to do so.
4. If he indeed was a good, thinking player, and if you were basically 99% certain he was holding crap and wouldn't cbet the river, then yes -- calling the turn and shoving the river or making a large value bet if he checked it to you might have gotten him off his hand if you were certain he was able to fold a semibad hand. You make it more plausible that you have a king or a full house this way as opposed to popping the turn.