Hot 2.2, Final table, huge stack (AKs)

Hi Guys,

What do you think about this hand? Do you think that I should 4 bet this guy, or should I just to call (if we are taking into consideration ICM pressure)?
BB is a reg.

12500/25000 Ante 3125 NL - Holdem - 7 players

UTG: 23.44 BB
Hero (UTG+1): 45 BB
MP: 20.23 BB
CO: 11.12 BB
BTN: 23.13 BB (13/10/3bet:3)
SB: 19.4 BB
BB: 46.65 BB (26/20/3bet:0)

7 players post ante of 0 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.37 BB) Hero has Ac Kc
fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 2 BB, fold, BB raises to 7.52 BB, Hero raises to 44.87 BB and is all-in, fold, BB calls 37.35 BB

Flop : (93.12 BB, 2 players) 8s 8h 7s
Turn : (93.12 BB, 2 players) Qs
River : (93.12 BB, 2 players) Ks

BB shows Js Jc (Flush, King High)

Hero shows Ac Kc (Two Pair, Kings and Eights)

BB wins 93.12 BB

Hi
In my opinion, in this situation, is just call, because with a huge stack you can await/choose better 'spots' to play against players with less chips, and fight vs. maybe 2 huge stacks later in the FT and obviously win more money, these 2 short stack players, probably would make a mistake/be finished, before you.
ICM is a important thing in final tables
In this hand you had a bad luck too, but is part of the game, I understand the all-in (AcKc is a nh)

I think you should have just called the 3 bet for a few reasons. You should be worry about ICM here with the shorter stacks but more that that based on the info you shared. He is a bit loose and aggressive but his 3beting is 0. That would be the biggest warning bell in this hand. I dont know how many hands you have against him but what hands is he willing to 3 bet here? We block aces and kings but he could still have them. Ak we most likely split but against we block some of those hands. Queens and Jacks we are flipping against and considering the ICM implications and we are a big stack at the moment is it worth a flip here? Not to me here. Any other player at this table yes but the only player who can take us out i dont think so.

Against any of the other opponents I would shove without doubt. But against the only villain with more chips, I think this is a call.. Specially with that stat (3bet:0).

That said, you have a great hand to shove, not a terrible decision. I think he should've folded.

Can't see shoving here under any circumstances. You've got a stack that just might get you to the bigger payouts at 1sr or 2nd....why throw that away? I would have certainly considered folding with that 3 bet stat screaming at me. Calling would be the only other choice. The guy had to have a big hand that would put you in a coin flip or worse.

For me calling in this scenario is only option, and revalu after the flop . AK is to strong to fold but for jamming isn’t, because you’re playing against only player who can bust you. If someone with shorted stack 3bet, flip coin would be justified, but against bigger one isn’t.

I would go all in preflop without raiseing. I think u played like most players u just werent lucky

They are going to play the hand correctly, just got unlucky, plain coin.
I had a big stack in the tournament yesterday, I lost three consecutive coins, and I was out of the tournament.

I am typically all for 4-betting AK and especially AKs, but as everyone has already said, in this situation its kind of ICM suicide, so I would just call and then probably fold to his flop C-bet, when I missed the flop. It sucks, but there is to much value here in letting some of the shorter stacks bust first, and with the chips left we certainly still have a shot at winning the tournament.

Just a few words about the HUD-stats. I dont think anyone in the history of poker has been running 26/20 with a 3-bet of 0 over a large sample of hands, so this must be based on a small sample, and then VPIP/PFR is a much more reliable indicator of the player type than 3-bet.

So I am not shying away from 4-betting here, because I think, he is only 3-betting aces or kings, and I am certainly not folding AKs. But even so I still dont think, he is 3-betting us light in this particular spot. Its also really bad for him to take us on in a big spot, so the ICM-pressure goes both ways.

To be honest both players took their hands to far. Because of the chip distribution this is a spot, where I would seriously consider to not 3-bet JJ out of position, and if I did and got jammed on, I would hate life and fold.

And of course the fact, he did not fold JJ, makes this 4-bet even worse. He was probably one of those guys, who looked like a good player but was more of a bad reg. Sort of reasonable looking stats but to pridefull to fold.

I think best move go all in preflop. GL

You did everything right. Lost a coinflip - not a big deal, just move on.

vox1er said:

Hero (UTG+1): 45 BB
BB: 46.65 BB (26/20/3bet:0)

Click to expand...

You're both dominant stacks and have many blinds to manuever with. I would call. You still have position.

I mean your opponent is almost never 3 betting AQ, still might tho esp if he thinks you 2 bet wide or he himself 3 bets wide, but it's safe to assume it's definitely AK, TT+, maybe 99. (TT is a stretch, but we'll consider it. Def more likely than AQ lol)

If you 4 bet raise , then you're trying to rep a bigger pocket pair. Can be profitable if he folds JJ, TT.
Here are the hand matchups:
You're flipping with QQ, JJ, and TT.
You're 30% vs KK,
You're 50% vs AK.

You're like 7% vs AA.

Honestly I put him on a hand before I read the spoiler, so I was inclined to call. He might fold TT and JJ, but that's a small possibility. If you're ready to flip, then go for it. Some people try to win big so they always go for the high risk high reward plays, because they don't settle for anything besides 1st place. But don't expect there to be any fold equity on a shove. If you call his 3 bet instead, you still have many blinds to play with