Hoping for Bad Cards Near the Bubble?

RogueRivered

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Does anyone else have this bad habit? I always find myself relieved when I see that I've been dealt weak cards when the tournament gets near the bubble.

This has got to be a terrible thing to do, right? I mean, you should want good cards and be ready to act of them, especially as you're being blinded down.

Why do I always freeze just trying to break the bubble. I don't know how many times I end up as bubble boy, but it's got to be at least 50 percent of the tournaments that I go far in. It happens often when I think I've got it made into the money, but then people don't drop out as fast as I think they will, and the blinds eat me up. It even happens as the prizes go up if I've managed to get in the money.

What should I do? I feel relieved when the push/fold table makes the decision for me, but it'd be nice to stay ahead of that problem.
 
Yermek

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On the bubble you have to play very tight
 
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joe777

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Dont wait until your stack fell below 10bb.Be super aggresive with 66+KQ+A10+. Most importantly you need to observe table dynamic and use your position to exploit any weaknesses on the table.
 
Yermek

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Dont wait until your stack fell below 10bb.Be super aggresive with 66+KQ+A10+. Most importantly you need to observe table dynamic and use your position to exploit any weaknesses on the table.

Sometimes it is better to wait out the bubble and get into the bonus area. It is better to make in tournaments with big prizes. If aggressive play hands is a good chance to become the bubble boy
 
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ph_il

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I had the same problem you had years ago when I first started playing MTTs, so I know exactly where you're coming from.

Are you usually reaching the bubble with a short or near short stack (~15 BBs or less)? If so, you're probably play a little too tight at the mid-late stages and missing key points to increase your stack size. Increasing your stack size at key points in the later stages will make playing the bubble a bit easier. Don't wait until you're at or near the bubble before you start making plays to build your stack.

As far as freezing up, does it have anything to with not wanting to lose any money? Or maybe you feel that you'd want to cash so you'd have something to show for X amount of hours of play?

If so, then stop thinking of it as money loss. If you can, disassociate yourself from money and think of it in terms of buy-ins. So, if you have a 100 buy-ins for $5 MTTs, think of it at losing 1 buy-in instead of losing $5. This might make it a bit easier to deal with non-cashes and downswings. If you're on a 10 buy-in downswing, it might be easier to look at is as still having 90 buy-ins left instead of as being down $50. It might seem silly, but not worrying about money or even being concerned about losing some (because you will downswing often in MTTs) makes decisions a lot more profitable because I'm not afraid to lose money making +EV decisions.

How you should play on the bubble itself really depends on your table's dynamics. There are times where I'm playing super aggressive because everyone is playing really tight. Other times, the table is really active and I have to be more selective with the hands I play. In either case, I'm looking to take the best approach that helps me get to the FT. My main concern isn't the bubble itself because I really don't care about a min-cash, it's how am I going to build my stack so I can it much deeper in this MTT?

Finally, I've posted this many times on this board and it's what helped me get over my hump of just min-cashing and being a bubble boy to running deep, making multiple final tables, and earning 10 MTT wins so far. Watch it and hopefully you'll get what it's saying.
 
SBEP

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There are so many things u could do, to get to the bubble with a bigger ship sack and use it to your advantage once on the bubble, but u play way to tight for that, u usually play a hand when u get dealt a good hand and i would guess only premium hands u dont even play suited connectors, u have to widen your range a bit, and play a bit more agro, sorry to say, but w8 for good hands and the board to hit your hand is not the way to play poker,like u i used to have the same problem, till i pick up a few things that helped me to build up my confidence and play better, and more agro, always follow what going on on your table, see who u should stay away, who should u attack, and never hesitate to take a chance to double up if the math and the odds are in your favor, when ever i play an MTT im always in the money, and if i ran smooth i will get on the FT, but from the beginning of the tournament to the end i play to win it, not just to make it in the money :D
 
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Sometimes it is better to wait out the bubble and get into the bonus area. It is better to make in tournaments with big prizes. If aggressive play hands is a good chance to become the bubble boy


If you are still waiting for the bubble to burst with only 5 or 6 bb left,then the risk of becoming the bubble boy yourself increased significantly.You musn't let your stack fell below danger zone(15-10bb) by then you need to act accordingly.
 
pescaofish

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I play the bubble tight because dont want to be the bubble boy, but with Top cards AA, KK I will play 3 BB not all in.

As for the video is a joke only theory and seems as a hook to get $$ subscribed to this site! :deal:
 
dbchristy

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Rogue I so, agree with you. Omg I had to get killed on the bubble. gimme a 72off
 
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freestocks

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Yea. I know exactly what you're talking about.
 
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ph_il

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I play the bubble tight because dont want to be the bubble boy, but with Top cards AA, KK I will play 3 BB not all in.

As for the video is a joke only theory and seems as a hook to get $$ subscribed to this site! :deal:
So, if you have AA or KK and only 10 BBs, you only raise 3 BBs instead of shoving? lol

Also, you don't have to subscribe to the site. The point of the video posted was to show that a winning player doesn't care about bubbling and focuses on taking flips at key spots in order to make it deeper with a larger stack.

The player, Shaun Deeb, wins MTTs by taking more risks near the bubble in coinflips and 60/40s at the risk at getting ITM less frequently, but in exchange for building a bigger stack for his deeper runs.

If you're approach MTTs in a similar way, you'll probably find much more success. Again, deep runs, making FTs, and getting top 3 is what earns you your profit. Not a handful of min-cashes.
 
RogueRivered

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Thanks philthy. That is great advice -- something I definitely needed to hear. Now, whether I can overcome the problem or not, that's another issue.

For me, it's not really about the money -- certainly not in these freerolls. I'm just so competitive that I really hate to lose. I get this sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach every time I get knocked out. And when I do make a min cash, I feel a sense of accomplishment. I was so happy yesterday when I cashed twice in a row, and then I kept thinking how great it would be if I made it three in a row. That was my bubble boy tournament. It's not logical; it's actually quite irrational.

That video you linked to was really good. I like the idea of playing high volume and not worrying too much about any one loss or win. It shouldn't be an issue as long as I'm playing smart with my bankroll. When I played 2nl, 5nl, and 10nl cash games several years ago, it was like that. I had lots of tables going and often didn't even get to see the results of the hand until after the session when reviewing the database. It was easy to laugh off the bad beats and try to learn from the mistakes without much ego involved.

Tournaments are a lot harder for me. I can barely do two games at once. Cash games I often did 1000 hands an hour (6-max). I had to drop it down at 10nl since I was only breaking even. Just dealing with increasing blinds is a big challenge for me in tournaments. One minute I have a decent amount of BBs, then next thing you know, it's getting desperate. I guess I should be making the move for a big stack about that time I feel safe, before ever reaching the desperate area.

I'm excited to try this great advice. I just wish I could get enough games in that I didn't become emotionally attached to any of them.
 
pauloprcds

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I think that all comes back to your stack, if you're with a healthy stack, you should be opening and exploring the other guys that have less chips and could get KO by you, but if you have a small stack, of course you should play more tight, after all ITM is money in the account, but play more tight doesn't mean play scared . Booble or not, try to get in the better spots possible ..
 
RogueRivered

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So I've tried to be more aggressive as the bubble approaches the last 3 tournaments. The funny thing is, I made a min cash that I feel terrible about, and got knocked out twice around the second hour of the tournament trying to build a good stack, which I feel pretty good about.

The min cash was another wimp out. I was sitting around 13 place, within one double up of the lead. Then the two big stacks were put right behind me, and they were really aggressive. I pretty much froze again, even laying down AK after the big stack behind me went all in. It was about 10 spots to the money. I know that was stupid. I paid for the add-on, so I guess I told myself I had to make it back.

The problem, I know, is that these are sunk costs (the two to three hours and the add-on expense). You can't worry about them. Tonight I went for it, and ended up saving myself an hour or more sitting through the excruciating bubble break. So, I feel good about saving myself that time, rather than trying to get back what I already invested. Now I can do some other stuff I want to do or find another tournament to try to win!
 
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ph_il

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How many BBs did you have when you folded AK?
 
IntenseHeat

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Of course, as the bubble approaches, I want to refrain from taking any unnecessary risks. Or as I tell myself, "don't do anything stupid". After all, I do understand not wanting to invest two or three hours in a tourney just to end up going out right before the bubble. But at the same time you can't be afraid of the bubble. The way I look at it is like this. I'm looking past the bubble. I'm going for the win. I've gone out close to the bubble plenty of times because I took my shot and lost. But there have been plenty of other times when taking my shot has paid off, and instead min cashing in 27th place, I've gone on to top 5 finishes that have paid considerably more. No matter what, I would rather take my shot at winning than cross my fingers and try to hold on, hoping not to lose.
 
Yermek

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I play the bubble tight because dont want to be the bubble boy, but with Top cards AA, KK I will play 3 BB not all in.

As for the video is a joke only theory and seems as a hook to get $$ subscribed to this site! :deal:

With these cards on the bubble you can well take the risk and try to double stack
 
RogueRivered

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How many BBs did you have when you folded AK?

I can't seem to find any way to get a hand history from BetOnline freerolls, so I'm not sure exactly how many BBs I had at that moment. It couldn't have been much over 10-15, and by waiting, thinking I was going to make the money for sure, I actually started to have doubts if I would make it. That's what always happens. The blinds are relentless. I didn't make it by much, going out somewhere around 35th out of 40 paid. Funny thing is, that big stack kept going at it with the other big stack, and went out only two spots higher than me. But, that's irrelevant. At least he was going for the win.
 
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Yeah, with 15 BBs, we definitely want to get our stacks in with AK. I'd even go as far as to jam up to 25 BBs in with AK.

You're never that too far behind with AK and you're getting called by a lot of weaker aces that you dominate, you flip against 22-QQ, and 60/40 against non paired hand like QJ, Q10, etc. So, definitely don't be afraid to get your money in 50/50s and slight edge situations. You're only way behind AA and have some equity against KK. However, you hold AK and block some AA, KK combinations.

With the big stack's aggressive style, their hand range is pretty wide, so you most likely had the best hand against them. So, don't be afraid to play a big hand against players with wide ranges. Sometimes, they wake up with a big hand or suck out with a weaker hand, but you're always in a +EV situation with AK vs a wide range.

If we look at the pros and cons of each option:

-fold AK/fold to money:
...pro: likely min cash
...con: likely to bust soon after/don't run deep.

-all-in with AK
...pro: double up or better. Still min cash, but have greater potential for finishing deeper and profiting more.
...con: you bust out.

So, by weighing the pros and cons, getting it in is always the better option as running deeper and profiting more makes up for all the times you bust out.

Ship it.
 
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PokerGrinder

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Play the same bubble or not. You are cheating yourself from winning the whole tourney if you play soft.
 
BogdanStark

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Weak or terrible cards can get right from the tournament beginning. Just yesterday I played 5 euro buy-in MTT (2k$ Gtd) at Net Bet poker room. I've been underdog till start. Always my pocket JJ collapsed by any Q, K, A on the board. I grappled right till the break. However just 1 minute from the break I decided make my 900 chips preflop all in with pocket AKs. But what do you think, what cards called me??? 55 called and bit me, as a result I decide did not make any re-buy, just not my evening.
 
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Does anyone else have this bad habit? I always find myself relieved when I see that I've been dealt weak cards when the tournament gets near the bubble.

This has got to be a terrible thing to do, right? I mean, you should want good cards and be ready to act of them, especially as you're being blinded down.

Why do I always freeze just trying to break the bubble. I don't know how many times I end up as bubble boy, but it's got to be at least 50 percent of the tournaments that I go far in. It happens often when I think I've got it made into the money, but then people don't drop out as fast as I think they will, and the blinds eat me up. It even happens as the prizes go up if I've managed to get in the money.

What should I do? I feel relieved when the push/fold table makes the decision for me, but it'd be nice to stay ahead of that problem.
I try and play more careful when I get to the bubble point. I fold many hands I would normally play including AA if playing online. Once I hit the money I am more likely to take more chances.:D
 
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Sounds weird, but definitely not too weird as the bubble is always very important. Depends how your stack is doing. You can also begin to play a bit more aggressively, as everyone else is worried about the bubble themselves.
 
teepack

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Blind stealing is critically important at the bubble. And you should also consider getting more aggressive, especially if there are shorter stacks after you, or stacks that are not much larger than yours, instead of tightening up. Nobody wants to be the bubble boy. Take advantage of that and start stealing some blinds.
 
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