Is Harrington advocating a bad play?(Touranment volume 2)
I'm fairly sure that Harrington is recommending a bad play but wanted some opinions. It is hand 10-2 on page 241. For those who haven't got the book I'll go through the question:
Toward the end of a one-table satellite. Player B(villian) and E are aggressive and C is super aggressive. Blinds are $30/$60, no ante
Player A. $610: folds
Player B. $610: raises $120
Players C. $2840 folds
Player D. $1480 folds
Player E. $1700 folds
SB(hero). $1330 (Ah Td)
My move(BB has $1430)
Harrington suggests just a call here and I tend to agree; if we shove we are only going to be called when we are beat( I can't see anyone calling this with (KQ/A9) so essentially we are bluffing
with a hand that definitely has value.
So hero calls, BB folds and the flop comes : Jc 6s 5h
Hero is first; my move?
I'm not sure if I should give me opinion now because it may bias your responses but I'll do it anyway(bad decision?)
The pot currently has $210 and villain has $490. Because of this, Harrington suggests to bet a half pot probe bet and if villain shoves, call his all-in since villain is aggressive and I will be getting the correct odds
to call( would be getting 3-1; AT beats pockets and a pair of 5/6 here 3-1 times so calling is correct, the only thing to be concerned of is pockets TT-AA, 55-66 and a pair of JJ which is unlikely, the amount of times he would be bluffing here off sets that)
However, I believe that an aggressive player in this situation would shove much wider if his opponent checked to him. By raising and calling any shove, I'm basically going to get the money in with more hands that have me beaten.
So I believe(correct me if I'm wrong) that checking the flop and calling any shove is a much better play because if I'm going to call any shove if I raise, I miles as well check because he is going to bluff more often.
Some of the arguments against checking would be:
It would be tough if villain checks behind
Harrington says that by betting it makes a easier decision for him; when villain just shoves like that it is a close call.
I hope that makes sense, I don't really know how else to describe my thoughts