Originally Posted by BluffMeAllIn
I'll have to take a look at the link this evening, don't imagine I can open it here at work (usually can't to to much).
In essence yes it comes down to push/fold in regards to the ranges you should push or call a push from based on position/players/range of villians etc. The calculation is a little off the wall in determining the $EV of the players at the table in regards to chipstacks but as I had mentioned somewhere else at some point, a doubleup will never double your $EV which is why taking a flip is -$EV in the long run.double ups in some cases can double equity, but very rarely is that the case. we have to take flips in sng's. not doing so would be heavily -$EV. the ICM equation in regards to SNG wiz takes all situations into account. so when we shove, how often they fold, how much equity we gain/lose if they call etc. basically it has algorithms setup which take into account all of the various situations that may arise.
An example that tends to be used to illustrate is in a 9 person sng 1st hand so all players have say 2k chips, there is a shove say from sb into bb all others folded. sb has TT bb has AK, although this is a flip situation its actually +$EV for all players at the table except the two involved in the hand. Yes the winner will now have 4k chips however their equity hasn't doubled while all players who had no risk in the hand have also had their $EV increase although slightly it increasd by doing nothing. In this situation over the long run with both sb and bb each winning this flip 50% of the time it always makes it a -$EV play for both of them.
I had an example of the exact numbers in a sng book I have read but keep getting involved in playing poker as soon as I walk in the door in the evenings and keep forgetting. however what it determines to be in regards to your equity is that in the situation where if calling for example someones shove ideally you want to you EV to be ahead to the point of being greater than the % of $EV you are going to increase if you win. So say if calling an allin is going to to increase your $EV by 40% then to call the allin you want to be 60/40 favorite against the opponents shoving range for your call to be +$EV in the long run.
As you said steve a lot of it comes down to push/fold especially in say turbo stt's when its pretty much your only option and so you are either shoving to get all to fold or shoving with a monster hand hoping someone will have what they deam to be a calling hand. Crunching #'s for ICM basically comes down to situations whereby say I just shoved AJ from the btn into sb and bb was this a +$EV play given their stack sizes the equity increase I would recieve if I won based on my equity in the hand against what I deem to be their calling range.
All of this is why when it comes to the bubble play in an stt if the big stack is shoving but you are 2nd in chips, unless you have bullets essentially its -$EV essentially to call. Granted an argument could be said for the fact that if they are following ICM they can be pushing superwide because they know I won't call without the top of my range, however even knowing this the fact that we know any Ax is certainly push worthy for them even with KK it still puts us 70/30ish on a quick rough estimate (3 outs 5x2% = 30%) and taking this risk when if they hit the 30% of the time but if we win our equity may only increase about 60% is -$EV, plus it doesn't bust the bubble because no one went out even when we win which means it might only be a 50% increase in equity. This plays differently in regards to your stack size, If I'm the shorty I have a much wider calling range because I would be under more pressure and therefore would be shoved on wider and also my $EV would likely take a larger increase with a double up than would a middle stack (also who would lay down a strong hand when folded will probably cause you to blind out without getting anything decent in the next few hands).
I'm sure this is probably more confusing lol, but tools like ICMIZER and SNGWiz generally are for analyzing the situation where in essense you analyze situations to determine if you made the correct call or shove in relation to long term $EV.
I'm sure once I have read my other sng book and reread them I would be able to more clearly reem this info off the top of my head but it has been a couple of months since i looked at it now, so hope this helps slightly more than it confuses.
Originally Posted by steveiam
I don't see how you can work it out on the spot unless i'm missing something because it changes depending on the number of BB's you have and players at the table.
It's not something i use, i do tend to go with instinct more often than not. It comes down to my range of hands i will shove with and the hands i will call with which i suppose is ICM. Where it becomes difficult for example would be to shove with say 67 suited with 10bb and 6 players but not with 9bb and 9 players if that makes sense.
You dont work it out on the spot, it's almost impossible. however, we know that a lot of similar spots happen in SNG, so we can study ICM, and over time, know if a play is profitable or not based on us playing a similar spot before. Once you have acquired a decent amount of knowledge, you can then adjust decisions based on how wide/tight players are shoving, or callign with.
SO yeah, instinct is great, but not if you don't know mathematically if you are even close to making the correct decision in a particular spot. ICM is related more closely to common sense than anything.
Originally Posted by steveiam
This site looked quite interesting for ICM.
Whenever it mentions the word "unexploitable" it's refferring to the NASH equilibrium. which is bascially a defensive play usually used against very good regular players. not technically icm, which is merely a calculator of sorts for determining the amount of equity you have in a tournament.