Good Situation Gone Wrong?

This hand occurred this past Saturday at a local 12pm $200 event – I thought I played it well but wanted to see if anyone else thought so.

This event had 30 minutes levels, $30K starting stacks, and was already into Level 5 when I entered. I played for almost 2 whole hours before being busted in Level 7.

Level 7 ($100/$400/$800 – $23K Stack)

I was in the big blind with

UTG+1 limped in for $800 (I thought to be a pretty solid player), four other players limped as well, the small blind completed the bet, I checked my option (really, I don’t see any other option), and 7 of 10 players went to the flop.

Pot - $6,600
Flop –

I didn’t hate that flop and besides the flush draw, immediately thought the 3 was nice. I felt I could represent that 3 easily having come in blind and checked my option. The small blind checked and I elected to check and reevaluate the action – I may raise here if the conditions are right.

The UTG+1 player bet $2,300 in a very stern/fearful way and I immediately thought mid-range pocket pair, 77-99, for his range, and believed that range was consistent with his actions to date. Everyone folded back around to me in the big blind.

I thought of raising, as I said earlier, but decided to call instead. For one, I have 12 outs if I’m right about his range, and he has given me the correct pot odds – it’s close, but I’m good 24% of the time and he’s giving me basically 4:1; plus I can still represent that 3 if a club doesn’t hit the turn.

Pot – $11,200
Turn -

I checked here with the sole intention of check raising my opponents’ almost certain bet. He bet $7500. I 3-bet shoved my remaining stack ($19,900).
He immediately started talking to himself – “Man, do you really have a 3?” among several other things while he tanked for a good minute. Finally, he said, “screw it, I call” and rolled

Pot - $51K
River –

I felt I played this hand well. I can’t figure out how we got there with JJ in early position, but we did; he let 7 people take a flop and then got married to an over pair on a paired board. I didn’t think he was that strong, but I wasn’t far off and it really doesn’t change much about the hand – he likely would have called with 99 too.

Equilab has me slightly ahead of his range, on the flop (50.18%/49.82%):
(22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s,32s,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo)

I think I like this; hmm – thoughts?

Honestly, I love the play. I think we get anything else to fold besides an overpair and maybe AT with Ac blocker.

From reading your posts, you have infinitely more experience and MTT success than I do so I really don't have any right to criticize anything about your plays.

With that being said, The only dynamic I see is that he's probably pot committed (vs your stack) after he puts out $7200 on the turn. Maybe he's folding to the check raise on the flop? Probably not. The turn 4h probably doesn't scare him and really doesn't improve anything you're repping.

I couldn't have put the guy on JJ but your instincts were right about him betting fearfully on the flop. Thinking about it more, he might just call a check raise on the flop and put you on just a flush draw. I think as played, you're more likely to have a 3 with the big 3-bet on the turn so that's probably the more profitable play. And given our knowledge about the UTG+1 player being solid, this play makes the most poker sense.

You probably go deep with a ~63bb stack if a different club hits us here. Good play, definitely one I need to be be able to make more frequently.

i dont think there are a lot of players who would lead out so strong with 77-99 on such a board. I would definitly put him on a ten there (and a strong one too) and if your figure out that he will not ever fold (even a 99) why push then on the turn? you have no odds there since he is not ever folding?

westside1950 said:

i dont think there are a lot of players who would lead out so strong with 77-99 on such a board. I would definitly put him on a ten there (and a strong one too) and if your figure out that he will not ever fold (even a 99) why push then on the turn? you have no odds there since he is not ever folding?

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Well first, I figured him to be good enough to get away from a hand; especially one he limped in with and got a dangerous flop; I also expected him to recognize that I could easily have a 3.

Second, his bet was very fearful – I didn’t even attempt to put him on a hand before the flop, how could I? He could literally have ATC. His bet is what did it for me – I don’t know how to explain it except that he was afraid of something – I thought 77-99. Now how knows, really, I’m rarely right on calling my opponents’ hand, but that was what I thought at the time and that’s what I went with until he changed my mind. The $7500 on the turn didn’t do that, it just reinforced the range I had identified in my mind – but you’re right, he could have had A10 – the Equilab range I assigned does included big 10’s.

One thing I didn’t put in the post that I meant to was his stack size; $90K-$110K. So, against anything he two-barrels, I probably have no FE. So if I was going to take this line, I should have raised the flop – but I took a more dangerous line and didn’t have as much FE as I thought in the end; but I also built a much bigger pot.

One other problem I have is that I broke one of Doyle’s cornerstone rules and lost all my chips in an un-raised pot.

Even still – I don’t have a huge problem with this hand or my play in a tournament scenario – and I just wanted to see what someone else thought.

honestly you played this hand very well. It would have been a little better if you would have value check raised on the flop to give yourself a little better chance of reading and get the chips in early and give yourself a better chance to stay in the tournament. Although if you were playing a 3 like you said you would probably check raise the turn, but the only problem with that is then you are letting him get deep in the pot with a chance of having to call with just pot odds on the flush draw. I think you played it very well though considering and obviously you almost had him off the hand. He must of thought of you as a good player because thats about the only way he could put you on such a play. You played it well even so, the only thing is if you want to represent the bluff and give yourself a chance at the draw too you should check raise the flop in this case because its earlier in the hand and less chips are at risk for winning still a susbtantial increase % to your stack. But other than that you did exactly what most great players would do. It would be very hard for him to put you on a draw in that situation but the check call on the flop is the only clue he had. I dont hate his play either honestly, i often limp in big PPs early in position just to play them soft, not to try to trap or look for a big pot but just to be more careful with my chips, There are plenty of ways to get chips especially in a deep stack like this so JJ isn't that premium of a hand, but once he is in isolation with only the BB then he has to either put you on a draw or a 3, and honestly this is almost a hero call. Its very hard to tell what you are doing in this situation, if you are a good player you are going to want him to get most of his chips in the middle, but this is the way we play poker, for big pots and big chances sometimes. Like i said the only thing you could have done and like you said, is check raise the flop and give him a little more scare early to conserve your chips in case he doesnt believe you, it may give you a better chance to get out of the hand and still have some chips to dabble with. Maybe if the situation presents itself again try to play it another way and see if it changes the outcome at all, obviously he was a pretty decent player so you are going to have to make sure its another decent player you are playing against if the opportunity presents itself again. Good luck at the tables, and great play honestly.

well played, but shit happens all the time on the table and around, what you could do??

I mean, that's one of those days when you just suck it up and move on.
Bad beat man

With 7 people limping into the pot, not sure I would have played it like that. I generally try to avoid chasing flushes on paired boards; that has always been a recipe for disaster for me. Once that club hit on the river, you were probably doomed any way, even if you had just called on flop and turn. If you hadn't shoved the turn, you certainly would have on the river. What was the other dude's stack size before the hand?

teepack said:

With 7 people limping into the pot, not sure I would have played it like that. I generally try to avoid chasing flushes on paired boards; that has always been a recipe for disaster for me. Once that club hit on the river, you were probably doomed any way, even if you had just called on flop and turn. If you hadn't shoved the turn, you certainly would have on the river. What was the other dude's stack size before the hand?

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Yeah, you know that’s why I checked the flop. This isn’t a terrible flop for my hand, but it’s not a real good one either; to be honest, the two 3’s are the best part of the flop coming in blind to a multi-way limped pot. If another player had called, I would have simply folded. But I thought my single opponent had a PP, 77-99, and I had 12 outs; as it turns out that wasn't quite accurate, but was the same difference, I still had 12 outs.

I normally shy away from practically everything on a paired board as well – but, if you’re pretty sure of your opponents’ range, you can make some concessions; or, at least, I can anyway.

His stack size was $90K-$110K – which is one part I really don’t like and wish I would have considered better. Against anything he two barrels, he probably looks me up, so I almost certainly didn’t have as much FE as I thought I did.