Going up against a Set with an Overpair

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OloMeister

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More than focusing on a specific hand, in this post I want to focus on the general topic of going raising or calling all-in with an overpair and finding out you are almost drawing dead.

I think the main question would be if you could ever get away from this spot or if it's just a cooler and you should not pay much attention to it.
Of course in a spot where you are quite short and Villain is a very aggressive player post-flop you really cannot fold your overpair. But in instances where the effective stack is over 100BBs and you have just registered the tournament, does it make sense to fold an overpair to a flop- or turn-reraise-shove on a not very draw-heavy board?

I know that most of the time you might be up against a smaller overpair, top pair or whatever, and when I filter for those spots in PT4 the BBs won per hand is huge... But I still wonder if those hands where I was up against sets ( or two pair ) and lost over 100BBs and the tournament live could have been avoided.

I would like to hear your opinion on this topic and if you do fold overpairs in these kind of spots. ( And like I said before, I don't mean spots where the board is very draw-heavy or Villain is normally very passive or when you have a read on your opponent )

:D
 
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Bertie Wooster

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OloMeister said:
More than focusing on a specific hand, in this post I want to focus on the general topic of going raising or calling all-in with an overpair and finding out you are almost drawing dead.

I think the main question would be if you could ever get away from this spot or if it's just a cooler and you should not pay much attention to it.
Of course in a spot where you are quite short and Villain is a very aggressive player post-flop you really cannot fold your overpair. But in instances where the effective stack is over 100BBs and you have just registered the tournament, does it make sense to fold an overpair to a flop- or turn-reraise-shove on a not very draw-heavy board?

I know that most of the time you might be up against a smaller overpair, top pair or whatever, and when I filter for those spots in PT4 the BBs won per hand is huge... But I still wonder if those hands where I was up against sets ( or two pair ) and lost over 100BBs and the tournament live could have been avoided.

I would like to hear your opinion on this topic and if you do fold overpairs in these kind of spots. ( And like I said before, I don't mean spots where the board is very draw-heavy or Villain is normally very passive or when you have a read on your opponent )

:D
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It boils down to knowing your opponent and making the best reads you possibly can and living with the result. Every situation is different.

I don't like to get pushed around early (or late)... if I think I have the best hand, I am calling with 100BB or anything else. You can do wonders with a big stack early if you know how to use it..if I think I am looking at a 2-outer, or such a huge draw that I am behind (example- a few weeks ago in a live tourney I had AA UTG, 3 callers including BB. he checks, I bet, fold fold, then he shoves on a 689 board with 2 spades (I don't have As). He could be camming something like an open ender with spades... 89 etc... I had to fold there. Even if I was ahead, I think the guy probably had enough outs to make me a dog there.

Just my opinion.
 
Andrew Popov

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You have probably never played 6+ Hold'em (sometimes called short desk hold'em). There the set is stronger than the straight. Feel all the pain when you put together a straight, senior straight with an ace, on a non-paired and offsuit board. And lose the hand. This is poker. You can never be sure.
 
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freestocks

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It happens. Sometimes it can be unavoidable. Raising enough to stop a small pair from fishing for a set can work sometimes.
 
kowrip

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IMO, the situation you describe is one of the toughest to navigate. It's especially tough to fold premiums hands like QQ/KK/AA when you face significant resistance post flop. You could always take the safe route and fold, knowing that you only have 1 pair and could easily be up against 2 pair or a set. Of course, you'll be leaking a lot of money if you do that all the time. You can also bet in such a way to help determine how likely it is that you are up against a set. For example, a player who calls both your bet on the flop and your bet on the turn is more likely to have you beat than a player who just pushes all-in over your bet on the flop (in my experience anyway). You also need to take a good hard look at the flop textures. There is no easy way to navigate this and it becomes especially tough in tournaments where the blinds are forcing the action. You really need to think hard about throwing away an over pair.
 
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OloMeister

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kowrip said:
IMO, the situation you describe is one of the toughest to navigate. It's especially tough to fold premiums hands like QQ/KK/AA when you face significant resistance post flop. You could always take the safe route and fold, knowing that you only have 1 pair and could easily be up against 2 pair or a set. Of course, you'll be leaking a lot of money if you do that all the time. You can also bet in such a way to help determine how likely it is that you are up against a set. For example, a player who calls both your bet on the flop and your bet on the turn is more likely to have you beat than a player who just pushes all-in over your bet on the flop (in my experience anyway). You also need to take a good hard look at the flop textures. There is no easy way to navigate this and it becomes especially tough in tournaments where the blinds are forcing the action. You really need to think hard about throwing away an over pair.
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This was for sure the most helpful response yet. Thanks for your comment.
Do you think, for example, betting big in position on dry, not too connected, low card boards and folding to big re-raises would be a good play to avoid those spots? Don't think many players bluff-check-raise a big bet, even when the board technically favors them. What do you think would be a similar strategy but against leads from the SB or BB?
 
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UncleConRon

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My opinion

Here is how I like to go against a set with an over pair. The over pair is do to hit trips a third of the time. Thats when you bet the over pair. You hope the play flops the set leaving you with turn/river to get them to bet. Hitting trips on turn river and stealing the win.
 
Luvepoker

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It really depends on the read of the situation. If I have 40BB and I have the over paid I will very likely go broke with it. 250BB I wont unless the play is very well know to me to bluff way to often. Then there is the player. Say you are against a player who never raises. You raise pre flop with queens and they call. Flop is 9, 7, 5 and you cbet and they re raise you. The 1st think you have to remember is they never raise so what could they have here? pocket 9,7 and 5 are good and 86 would have flopped the straight. I may call the flop here. On the turn the bet about pot. How do you feel with your over pair. Not good for sure. I can fold it here easily. Aces as well as the think to remember is they never raise. If the guy is always raiseing flop bets and betting the turn and river I will call every time. As you can see it just depends on the situation and who you are playing against.
 
proud2Bwhack

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I remember the first time I heard the term pot control, it never got easier, obviously there can be a lot of variables, but with 100+BB I'm VERY aware that all I have is a pair, even against the most aggressive opponent!!!!
 
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John bruce

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Sets

Honestly sets get me every time. It's funny that I always hit my hand strong every time i go up against a set. Tonight I had AK off flop came out A 9 3 rainbow. Villain checks so I bet 1/4 of the pot he calls. Turn flips a k villain checks so I bet half the pot he calls. River was a five villain checks and I see no flush no straight so I bet half the pot. He pushes all in about two thousand chips left but I couldn't see a set for some reason. I was already pot committed. I call and he showed pair of three for the set. Bummer
Just funny that my hands are always strong for some reason. I'm kind of tight so usually it takes a suck out to get me but sets get me every time. Chalk it up as unlucky to get lucky and hit my cards. Or is that super unlucky or just unlucky? Let's play poker. :bike:
 
dimon4ik89

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I think that a set is a combination that is harder to read in poker. Overpair can and should be folded when the flop is a combination older than your overpair, it can be straight, flush or for example a full house. Understand that the enemy has a set on hand is almost impossible, because in such cases it is just a cooler as you wrote. My friends and I call these distributions doomed.
 
kowrip

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OloMeister said:
This was for sure the most helpful response yet. Thanks for your comment.
Do you think, for example, betting big in position on dry, not too connected, low card boards and folding to big re-raises would be a good play to avoid those spots? Don't think many players bluff-check-raise a big bet, even when the board technically favors them. What do you think would be a similar strategy but against leads from the SB or BB?
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I think betting big in position on a dry flop is generally going to be the right move. Against a raise, you can fold. Against a call, it's much tougher to figure out. That's what makes the float bluff so effective. Against a bet from the SB/BB, a raise will probably get you the information you need for the least amount of chips. Maybe raise to 2.5X the initial bet. As ken nielson mentioned, you have to look at the risk vs. reward. If you have an extremely deep stack, you should be more inclined to fold to aggression and look for a better situation to put that many chips into the pot.
 
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