Folding to the Short Stack on STT Bubble

In the past year or so I've gotten my roommate very into poker, he's actually a member here at CC but doesn't post very often. These days he's playing a ton more volume than me actually, he's been playing the $3.40 10-man turbos on pokerstars.

One of the things he complains about in these games (he complains about oh so many things ) is when he sees a big stacked player against a small stacked player bvb on the bubble, where he is one of the medium stacks either on the BTN on CO. He'll wait anxiously to see if the big stack will put the small stack all-in, and then when he sees the big stack fold he'll loudly curse at his computer screen

He says to me there's no reason for the big stack not to put the shorty all-in in that spot. But is there?

Some people will say that, as the big stack, by letting the short stack survive, you're creating opportunities for yourself to steal from the medium stacks who will be very risk-averse on the bubble. I tried using SNGWiz to analyze if this was true or not. The first two pictures I've attached are the $EV of the decisions associated with stealing from the medium stacks when we're on the BTN and in the CO. I've made some assumptions about the calling ranges of each player, which may or may not be accurate. The third picture is the $EV of shoving all-in on the short stack (the range I've given him is probably way too narrow, but that's not the point).

So it looks like there is more $EV associated with stealing from the medium stacks-- assuming they're calling very narrow. I haven't run it through Wiz yet, but I would assume this becomes was less profitable if our opponents aren't playing risk-averse, and that it'd be better to just try and attack the short stack in that bvb situation.

I'm not trying to say one play is right over the other-- I just thought I'd mess around with SNGWiz, post the results, and see what people had to say about it. So here we go-- what are people's thoughts on this type of scenario?

53 views and no replies? Come on guyzz

Are my ranges awful? Are they perfect? What else would you consider in this analysis? What non-ICM factors come into play here?

Medium stack ranges seem about right, we're talking 99+ / AQ+ or thereabouts, right? For a while they might even be a tiny bit tighter than that given that it's the bubble and they stand such a good chance of cashing.

In general I like the strategy. I do expect the medium stacks' ranges to change as they get shorter, especially since there's more than a few players out there like your friend who'll get tilted by us leaving the short stack in and picking on them instead.

Having, on too many occasions, depleted my big stack by trying to KO the short stack on the bubble, I say -- if YOU want to keep doubling up the short stack, do it. I'm going to keep playing as though my chips matter.

If I raise with not much, I want the other guy to fold. The short stack is more likely to play it out. The medium stacks are my proper prey. Even better if they try to KO each other.

It is not my responsibility as big stack to get rid of small stack. I will try if I have a good hand.

thanks for the replies guys

doops said:

Having, on too many occasions, depleted my big stack by trying to KO the short stack on the bubble, I say -- if YOU want to keep doubling up the short stack, do it. I'm going to keep playing as though my chips matter.

Click to expand...

Maybe I'm just being narrow-minded but it seems like you're looking at this from a very results-oriented point of view. We want to look at the $EV associated with the play, not with the results of the play-- I suppose if you double up the short stack you're limiting the opportunities you'll have for $EV plays later on in the game, but I don't know if that's what you were thinking when you said that you'd avoid attacking the short stack.

doops said:

If I raise with not much, I want the other guy to fold. The short stack is more likely to play it out. The medium stacks are my proper prey. Even better if they try to KO each other.

It is not my responsibility as big stack to get rid of small stack. I will try if I have a good hand.

Click to expand...

Well the thing with attacking the short stack is that if you put him all-in with a weak hand, the majority of the time you'll only be a 2:1 dog, and you're not risking a significant amount of your equity to do so. That's what makes the play +$EV. But I suppose what I'm curious about is under what conditions is that more $EV than attacking the medium stacks, and vice versa.

So yeah, we don't have a "responsibility" to get rid of a shorty, rather our responsibility is to find out which move will make us the most money in the long run.

cjatud2012 said:

Well the thing with attacking the short stack is that if you put him all-in with a weak hand, the majority of the time you'll only be a 2:1 dog, and you're not risking a significant amount of your equity to do so. That's what makes the play +$EV. But I suppose what I'm curious about is under what conditions is that more $EV than attacking the medium stacks, and vice versa.

Click to expand...

For me I guess the tipping point is when the short stack isn't really short enough to be an obvious candidate for the bubble - ideally I'd want them to have 3-4BB or less with a reasonable gap to the other stacks, how far do people think we can take that though? And is the play still feasible if there are two short stacks?

I am with Doops, I don't want to double the shorty and too often I see the shorty come back to life just from ppl playing atc to try and bust them out.

PooffyFooffy said:

I am with Doops, I don't want to double the shorty and too often I see the shorty come back to life just from ppl playing atc to try and bust them out.

Click to expand...

oh look a Pooffy sightingg!

I feel like I wanna say the same thing that I said to doops, I think this is sort of a results-oriented way of looking at it, and our selective memory is clouding our judgment as to what the best decision is-- which isn't necessarily folding to the short stack, I just don't think a valid reason to fold to the short stack would be to avoid doubling him up. Rather, a good reason would be because it is more +$EV to attack the mid-stacks than the short stacks.

I hope that made sense.

He says to me there's no reason for the big stack not to put the shorty all-in in that spot. But is there?

Click to expand...

1-Remember when you put allin a player in late game your are risking more than getting back, because even if you win the hand most equity is split to other players not only to you according to ICM, you already are safe in the $, rest of players don´t, so when you take out the shorty what are you doing really is giving the $ to the others when they are not sure yet and with out risk for them.

2-having the shorty there it helps alot to you in the way that if all get tight because are afraid of be busted then you can steal frecuently from the other 2 players that are not the shorty, unless they wake up with a strong hand or are very loose (in wich case bubble will not last much any way) you can steal and steal and steal from the other players, wich help a lot more because when you get to last3 you could have a better stack.

Is not the regular to happen, i mean some folks will know what are you doing and still not have the guts to push back, but some will do after time.

Yesterday from 20 games i get 1 table like this, i was the big stack with around 5500, 2 others where around 2000, 1900, and the shorty with 1000 or less, blinds in 200, but non of then want to step up, not even the shorty and just avoid and fold around, manage to get up to 7000 and this 2 get down to 1500/1200 until i get Aces and cant affort to let it go when the shorty finaly push (with 500 left).

But yea, i do prefeer to keep the shorty when i am the big stack, if not have a decent hand will not call his push, still will get my chips back from the others.

When i am the medium stack will try to go to other medium stack, shorty gamble more and steal not work so you need a really strong hand to go for them.

cjatud2012 said:

I hope that made sense.

Click to expand...

It does, but I agree to disagree
Everyone plays different. I am not saying I have to have Aces, but I would certainly fold holding say 84 even if it is sooted.

Oh and I don't know how I got in here, I hate tourneys, lol

PooffyFooffy said:

It does, but I agree to disagree
Everyone plays different. I am not saying I have to have Aces, but I would certainly fold holding say 84 even if it is sooted.

Oh and I don't know how I got in here, I hate tourneys, lol

Click to expand...

but you would fold even if SNGWiz says it's +$EV to shove 84 (which it does for these blinds for anything less than 95% villain calling range)?

This is kind of a derail now, lol, because the question is whether we should capitalize on the $EV of shoving bvb on the short stack, or by folding to the short stack and take advantage of the the medium stack's reluctance to gamble on the bubble with a short stack present.

OzExorcist said:

For me I guess the tipping point is when the short stack isn't really short enough to be an obvious candidate for the bubble - ideally I'd want them to have 3-4BB or less with a reasonable gap to the other stacks, how far do people think we can take that though? And is the play still feasible if there are two short stacks?

Click to expand...

I don't know, that's a good question. Say the stack distribution was 3bb's, 4bb's, 10bb's and 18bb's, just a trivial example... I think it would depend on how risk-averse the 10bb stack is going to be. Generally he's gonna be very tight I'd think, but some players are just completely oblivious and will go nuts, making our strategy less effective. That's probably the crucial component of this strategy, if we think our medium stacked opponents are going to be playing tight then we should absolutely take advantage of that rather than push all-in on the short stack.

/Logan/ said:

1-Remember when you put allin a player in late game your are risking more than getting back, because even if you win the hand most equity is split to other players not only to you according to ICM, you already are safe in the $, rest of players don´t, so when you take out the shorty what are you doing really is giving the $ to the others when they are not sure yet and with out risk for them.

2-having the shorty there it helps alot to you in the way that if all get tight because are afraid of be busted then you can steal frecuently from the other 2 players that are not the shorty, unless they wake up with a strong hand or are very loose (in wich case bubble will not last much any way) you can steal and steal and steal from the other players, wich help a lot more because when you get to last3 you could have a better stack.

Is not the regular to happen, i mean some folks will know what are you doing and still not have the guts to push back, but some will do after time.

Yesterday from 20 games i get 1 table like this, i was the big stack with around 5500, 2 others where around 2000, 1900, and the shorty with 1000 or less, blinds in 200, but non of then want to step up, not even the shorty and just avoid and fold around, manage to get up to 7000 and this 2 get down to 1500/1200 until i get Aces and cant affort to let it go when the shorty finaly push (with 500 left).

But yea, i do prefeer to keep the shorty when i am the big stack, if not have a decent hand will not call his push, still will get my chips back from the others.

When i am the medium stack will try to go to other medium stack, shorty gamble more and steal not work so you need a really strong hand to go for them.

Click to expand...

1) Okay, I think I understand what you are saying, had to read it a couple of times lol. you're right, if we put one of the medium stacked players all-in, a lot of his equity will go to the short stack, and not much will go back into our stack. So it's not a great risk/reward without knowing that the medium stack is going to play very tight.

2) I think you hit the nail right on the head, if players are gonna be risk averse then we can capitalize on that.

/Logan/ said:

Is not the regular to happen, i mean some folks will know what are you doing and still not have the guts to push back, but some will do after time.

Click to expand...

That's actually the beauty of this strategy IMO - a smart player can recognise exactly what you're doing and still not be able to do anything about it because a smart player won't want to risk bubbling when they're almost certainly going to cash.

One way they might try to adjust is to push before us, say from UTG while we're on the button figuring two can play at our game and we won't want to jeopardise our chip lead calling a medium shove light. What are the stack sizes and ranges where we call them?