Fold pre?

It’s the 12PM deep stack event at my local casino, blinds are 6K, 3K, with a 500 ante and I have around 400K – my opponent has about 350K.

We’re six handed while they are breaking tables up and have been for a few hands at this point. From UTG +2 I’m deal

I raise to 15K.

The SB is a regular player and is a rock! However, today she has been 3 and 4-betting an awful lot and I think it’s because she has been getting some cards – but maybe she’s improving a little too, it’s hard to say.

She 3-bets to 30K.

This is the point in the hand where I could have saved myself a lot of chips by folding. But I’m deep and in position 6 handed with a flop primed hand. But since she’s a rock, I’m pretty sure she’s in the premium range. Anyway, I call.

She bets 60K in the dark. Quiz: What does a rock bet in the dark? Oh yeah, one hand right? I now know she’s not only in the premium range, but has the premium of premiums.

Flop:



I flat the 60K because I know she can’t fold. Her stack is nearly comparable to mine and if she catches I would like to be able to get way from this. I may be thinking about this wrong too though – would a shove or 3-bet be +EV?

Turn:



She bets 100K. I call, a little reluctantly, I would prefer a free card here and I’m willing to give her one...but, no joy!

River:



F UCK!!!

She goes all-in and I fold. She shows the aces and giggles a little; I’m thinking “no shit”, but whatever.

Anyway, I got myself into this mess by calling pre-flop when I knew I was behind. I justified it with position and a better than average hand - six handed. I guess I’m lucky I didn’t lose my whole stack. I would have loved to shove the flop but then I lose because she will call; there’s nothing I can do to make her fold and I knew it – so I did lose the minimum once I called pre, but that minimum was still half my stack. Obviously I wish I had folded pre in hindsight, but I’m sitting on a 30M stack, I think I’m playing suited J 10’s with position; what does everyone think?

I dont think you calling preflop was a bad play. I think that when she bets the 60k you should raise because it seems like you have a great read on her and knew that she had aces.

From you description, you played this hand perfectly. If you shoved on the flop, you would of most likely been called and in this case lost. This way you knew when to fold. Good job on the read!

I would have folded PF to a big raise, with that hand, to a rock.

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credsfan03 said:

I dont think you calling preflop was a bad play. I think that when she bets the 60k you should raise because it seems like you have a great read on her and knew that she had aces.

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Yeah, and against most players that’s exactly what I would do; raise! But I know she’s a rock that won’t be folding AA…How do you think she got such a big stack in the first place? Plus I know that she will probably keep on barreling, I had hoped for a free river, but really wasn’t shocked by her turn bet – I’ve got two pair to her one pair, I’ll just let her keep barreling off her chips. On top of that we are down to the final 3 tables, with 18 getting paid. I’m not trying to fold to mini-cash, but I do have some liberties with my stack at this point.

If I raise the flop, I’m nearly certain she moves all-in – I would be forced to call and be left with a 2M stack 1 seat from the BB.

I just really hate it when a player tells you what they have (she might as well have turned them over), the flop is like Yahtzee for me, and I still manage to lose!

JusSumguy said:

I would have folded PF to a big raise, with that hand, to a rock.

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I'm with JusS on this.
Why could you not put her on having Jacks or Tens for a set which would of also had you beat??
Nice read on her tho.

JusSumguy said:

I would have folded PF to a big raise, with that hand, to a rock.
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+1

ssbn743 said:

If I raise the flop, I’m nearly certain she moves all-in – I would be forced to call and be left with a 2M stack 1 seat from the BB.

I just really hate it when a player tells you what they have (she might as well have turned them over), the flop is like Yahtzee for me, and I still manage to lose!

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You were going to lose the hand no matter what. If you shoved the flop she would have called and as it ran out you would have lost. But that is exactly what should have happened. The fact that your bad play (I don't mean to imply that you're a bad player) ended up saving your bacon is really results oriented. You raised pf with a good hand and called a re-raise getting about 20:1 implied odds if you hit your hand, so far so good. Your sinister plan worked like a charm so why, why why didn't you move in for the kill on the flop?

the only way you coulda have avoided this was fold preflop... but to be honest i'm not folding there. You played it perfect though... you sacrificed the minimum amount until the river and gave yourself an opportunity to fold rather than be committed and have to call there. Yeah if you raised the flop, she wasn't going anywhere with AA. That woulda been your tourny right there! Nice play... good fold. J10 suited is one of my favorite hands and it just happened you had your opponent where you needed her to be, but it just didnt finish out for you this time!

Four Dogs said:

You were going to lose the hand no matter what. If you shoved the flop she would have called and as it ran out you would have lost. But that is exactly what should have happened. The fact that your bad play (I don't mean to imply that you're a bad player) ended up saving your bacon is really results oriented. You raised pf with a good hand and called a re-raise getting about 20:1 implied odds if you hit your hand, so far so good. Your sinister plan worked like a charm so why, why why didn't you move in for the kill on the flop?

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Is it really a bad play though? I mean obviously I should have folded pre, in my opinion and in hindsight I wish I had, but once I make two-pair and it’s obvious she is going to overplay her hand – why not let her barrel off? “It’s rarely advantageous to bet when your opponent will do it for you” (Mike Caro). If the four doesn’t hit the river, I move all-in then and get all her chips – if it does, like it did, I fold and retain my seat near the bubble.

This is the purpose of my post, I’m legitimately asking, but I don’t think the way I played it was bad. What if I moved all-in on the flop and she folded (unlikely here I know) – that would have been even worse; right?

JusSumguy said:

I would have folded PF to a big raise, with that hand, to a rock.-

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I wish she had made an actual raise, something like 40-45K or higher, as it stands she barley min-raised me. I don’t think it was a big raise at all and that’s how I got into this mess in the first place.

JusSumguy said:

I would have folded PF to a big raise, with that hand, to a rock.

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I agree with this...as many others have.

It just makes sense to me to fold here being it's against someone that you claim to know as a rock.

ssbn743 said:

Is it really a bad play though? I mean obviously I should have folded pre, in my opinion and in hindsight I wish I had, but once I make two-pair and it’s obvious she is going to overplay her hand – why not let her barrel off? “It’s rarely advantageous to bet when your opponent will do it for you” (Mike Caro). If the four doesn’t hit the river, I move all-in then and get all her chips – if it does, like it did, I fold and retain my seat near the bubble.

This is the purpose of my post, I’m legitimately asking, but I don’t think the way I played it was bad. What if I moved all-in on the flop and she folded (unlikely here I know) – that would have been even worse; right?

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By bad I mean, not optimal. Your read was spot on and I think your preflop call was fine based on it. The line goes like this. "I'm getting almost 4:1 to call with a speculative hand. That's good, but not great but I'm pretty sure the villain has aces and will stack off if I hit the flop just right giving me almost 30:1 implied odds. I think I'll play". Some might argue that even 30:1 isn't enough without a pocket pair given that she might not have aces after-all, if she does she might not stack, and if she stacks you still you might get drawn out on. But this is a tournament, not a cash game and IMO the risk to reward seems to be worth the price of admission.

But that's neither here nor there because good or bad, you did call and when you flopped what you believed to be the best hand you changed your plan. Why was this bad? Because if you think someones going to stack off, why give them a chance to change their mind? Everyone knows that aces are vulnerable but most players, even good ones, are reluctant to let them go on the flop. They correctly assume that many times when an opponent shoves the flop they have top pair, an over pair, a draw, some pair draw combo, or even complete air, so they call. You would have to have a pretty good read on someone to fold aces on this board. All that changes after the flop. As the hand progresses, both your hand and hers become more vulnerable. She becomes less likely to get it in and you become less confident as well. It still may be a big pot, but it won't be for stacks.

If effective stacks are smaller, say 20BB's or less than letting them hang themselves is a good strategy as one they have more than half their stack in they are unlikely to fold to a river shove or, they may just value own themselves to death. I this case I think the best line is to just get it in. If they fold, then so be it.

Gotta go. Dinner. glgl

Agreed with Four Dogs on all counts.

Four Dogs said:

By bad I mean, not optimal. Your read was spot on and I think your preflop call was fine based on it. The line goes like this. "I'm getting almost 4:1 to call with a speculative hand. That's good, but not great but I'm pretty sure the villain has aces and will stack off if I hit the flop just right giving me almost 30:1 implied odds. I think I'll play". Some might argue that even 30:1 isn't enough without a pocket pair given that she might not have aces after-all, if she does she might not stack, and if she stacks you still you might get drawn out on. But this is a tournament, not a cash game and IMO the risk to reward seems to be worth the price of admission.

But that's neither here nor there because good or bad, you did call and when you flopped what you believed to be the best hand you changed your plan. Why was this bad? Because if you think someones going to stack off, why give them a chance to change their mind? Everyone knows that aces are vulnerable but most players, even good ones, are reluctant to let them go on the flop. They correctly assume that many times when an opponent shoves the flop they have top pair, an over pair, a draw, some pair draw combo, or even complete air, so they call. You would have to have a pretty good read on someone to fold aces on this board. All that changes after the flop. As the hand progresses, both your hand and hers become more vulnerable. She becomes less likely to get it in and you become less confident as well. It still may be a big pot, but it won't be for stacks.

If effective stacks are smaller, say 20BB's or less than letting them hang themselves is a good strategy as one they have more than half their stack in they are unlikely to fold to a river shove or, they may just value own themselves to death. I this case I think the best line is to just get it in. If they fold, then so be it.

Gotta go. Dinner. glgl

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Ok, I see a lot of good logic to this, thank you!

The one thing I would say though is that I didn’t know she had aces until the dark 60K bet. When I made the pre-flop call all I knew was that I was most likely up against a premium. Not that it changes much on this flop with these hands, QQ is that same as AA here. But with stack sizes and her ability I’m calling pre specifically for the opportunity to flop two-pair; so you’re right, I should have shoved or at least raised the flop.

That being said, I don’t mind how I played it all that much either.

What about a hybrid? Flat the dark 60K, and shove the turn? I don’t really like this because I would have lost all fold equity, but when a rock has AA, I’ve already lost all fold equity anyway.

EZ call pre....I mean of the min 3B in pos.

EZ raise and call it off on the flop; just think of all the cards that could kill your action on turn....

A2345Razz said:

EZ call pre....I mean of the min 3B in pos.

EZ raise and call it off on the flop; just think of all the cards that could kill your action on turn....

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You’re absolutely right, what if a 10 or King hit the turn? However, by this point I was near positive of her holdings – if she draws a runner runner Broadway out on me oh well huh? This was just interesting because I knew what she had, she didn’t know (or was even thinking about) what I had. I flat called her flop and turn bets – that would worry most players, not her though – I doubt she even noticed that she made aces up; she would have shoved the river regardless. That is the primary reason why I don’t have a problem with how I played it. I think Four Dogs is right, it certainly wasn’t optimal and was a little donkey-ish, but it wasn’t without reason or thought.

fold pre, raise flop, raise turn

you called v a narrow narrow range, she has 2 combos that beat you (very unlikely but im putting them in) and like 36 that dont fold, get the money in dont take a free card.

I would prolly fold pre...but it depends on the player who raised..his game,,,3bet % and stuff..

duggs said:

fold pre, raise flop, raise turn

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duggs said:

you called v a narrow narrow range, she has 2 combos that beat you (very unlikely but im putting them in) and like 36 that dont fold, get the money in dont take a free card.

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Obviously this is the point of my post and in this case (and hindsight) a fold would have been best.

However, is raised 9K to 15K – the next minimum raise is 24K and she only 3-betted to 30K. I have an extremely deep stack and so does she. I do think she’s a rock, a little on the good side though, however a 3-bet from the SB with this player is transparent; it’s certainly a legitimate hand.

Nonetheless, I don’t really see how a pre-flop fold is the right play – she’s giving me every excuse to crack her! I don’t understand the people that keep saying that folding pre is the answer. You have every advantage in this situation, she’s a rock, you know what she has, you have position and quality cards, and you have a 30M stack 10 places off the bubble. How can a pre-flop fold here possibly be +EV?

But, this is where I choose the wrong line. If I was going to call pre with the intent of hitting two-pair and cracking; why didn’t I raise the flop? I don’t know the answer to that question other than my thinking made sense to me at that time; and still does in some ways – I did retain me seat, and in this case that meant a win about 4 hours later – but I know, I know, that’s results-oriented; right?

When this bad nit min 3bets you you're getting a good price to call with your JTs, so calling is fine as you know she has QQ+ and you can't make a big mistake and lose big pot against her but you can potentially double your chips when you hit something big. She's not folding her overpair and you don't want to see any of 4 Q K A on the turn so i'd raise it and get it in on the flop.

Most of us agree that PF it's a fold.

Since you were in the hand, had the right read. The only post flop action is to push. Leave the decision up to her.

A raise only gives her the push, leaving you with the decision. The only line here is to take her push away. You can't allow her to see two more cards.

Fold Pre... Push the flop.

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Pre flop im ok with, seems you did the right thing folding even if you push after the flop which isnt a bad play your way ahead you get rivered.

ssbn743 said:

Obviously this is the point of my post and in this case (and hindsight) a fold would have been best.

However, is raised 9K to 15K – the next minimum raise is 24K and she only 3-betted to 30K. I have an extremely deep stack and so does she. I do think she’s a rock, a little on the good side though, however a 3-bet from the SB with this player is transparent; it’s certainly a legitimate hand.

Nonetheless, I don’t really see how a pre-flop fold is the right play – she’s giving me every excuse to crack her! I don’t understand the people that keep saying that folding pre is the answer. You have every advantage in this situation, she’s a rock, you know what she has, you have position and quality cards, and you have a 30M stack 10 places off the bubble. How can a pre-flop fold here possibly be +EV?

But, this is where I choose the wrong line. If I was going to call pre with the intent of hitting two-pair and cracking; why didn’t I raise the flop? I don’t know the answer to that question other than my thinking made sense to me at that time; and still does in some ways – I did retain me seat, and in this case that meant a win about 4 hours later – but I know, I know, that’s results-oriented; right?

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no, you arent deep stacked at all, you are 59bb eff. and you absolutely dont have anywhere near the required equity to call here, moreover, look at the frequency and average equity you will flop. you pretty much have to flop J10 or Q98 to get any kind of value, since AKQ she has sets 100% of the time. most of the time your hand flops between 20-35% equity and we have to check/fold. we have no perceived fold equity so when we flop draws we have to play them passively.

there is a good argument for calling 3bets 100bb deep at this sizing to setmine, never ever with J10s v a rock.