My thoughts are I can get villain to fold all 1 pair hands which rep most of this particular villans range. Thoughts on this play?
You completely discount sets which might well repop that flop with 2 to a flush. TT, 44, 33 never show up here?
There is damn little chance the CO is going to fold to your AI after she has already check raised. So fold equity has very little to do with this hand after that happened. She put you on a range based on your loose style that told her she was ahead in the hand (and she was right) and bet it aggressively. Your response to shove when it was a pretty sure thing you were behind (and even if ahead, with 2 cards to go, it could easily collapse) was not worth the risk is early stages of tournament play. However the reality of tourneys are you have to take risks to be profitable. I don't think this was a good one though.
If I was her - knowing the particular room and level of play... I'm calling with over pairs, sets.. and AT. it just really smells like a flushdraw - she nailed the read - and I think that mediablitz got it right pretty concisely. check raise just isn't folding after putting in 1/4 their stack.
Really the only way you can/should be capable of expecting them to fold a pretty solid hand is if you KNOW they are not a bad player. Bad players make bad plays on a regular basis, that's why they are bad...and making a call of a huge shove with a strong but not the nuts type of hand...well that's what bad players do hehe.
Disagree Bwammo - to an extent.
You stand a chance of getting a good player to fold. --Although given the action, what hand does villain hold if they are a good player? A big check raise on that flop should say what? Is a good player ever check raising that spot and showing up with a holding where they fold? In that poker room if they are raising 2.5x they are probably not a bad player - most people up there over-raise pre - so the woman is not without a clue.
(Granted I don't like the villains line here - though it indicates to me that she clearly thought she'd get action from the activer players, maybe even OP. In that case I don't hate it at all. But that deep I'm probably cbetting, and flatting any 3bet and wanting to see another card that doesn't make the flush. )
I make the call too if I am her and I don't think I am a bad player. You need to factor in the level of play around you as well. I'm calling goofy fish differently than nitty old men and differently than players that seem/look competent.
If I think in that hand that OP would make a move that some decent % of the time, then I really have to think about calling as while your tourny life is one thing, I'm not passing up small edges for giant stacks that will be worth that much more later on.
OP himself said he'd been pretty lag, but solid. I think he means he was lag but didn't have to showdown any garbage. If I see a laggy youger guy who seems competent - this really makes the % chance of a move or a draw MUCH higher.
Also, your instashove makes me call much faster unless I'm getting a tell that feels like it's the absolute nuts. If you had a truly huge hand you are either flatting or taking a little time before jamming it in.
Anyway, Bwammo- AT is a solid call with what's in the pot and the action if OP is either laggy competent type or otherwise appears to be a poor player.
Top top or an over is good in the right situations - even in the hands of a good player... especially live where one has a much better read.
Cliffs to OP: If yo ucan think through the hand to that level and are playing such a fishy field as I know shows up in that tournament, either 3bet
bluff pre or fold pre. Why even get into this situation....