flush with bet

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pokersharkk

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what are the chances of hitting flush when i hold two suited if there is other cards ?


how much bet should i exactly bet in order to hit it?
 
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groggy44

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it depends.
Are drawing to the nut flush? What do you think your opponents likely have? Is the board paired? how deep are your stacks?
I think you are around 32% on the flop and 16% on the turn.
I don't change my bet sizing when I am on a draw. I try and keep them all the same. Unless of course i get reraised and I I have some type of combo draw. top pair, nut flush draw, gut shot str8, then I'm jamming.
If you're playing against a bunch of loose aggressive players, might not have bet at all. They might be on a weak flush and when it hits, they jam. Just depends really
 
Michael Paler

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it depends.
Are drawing to the nut flush? What do you think your opponents likely have? Is the board paired? how deep are your stacks?
I think you are around 32% on the flop and 16% on the turn.
I don't change my bet sizing when I am on a draw. I try and keep them all the same. Unless of course i get reraised and I I have some type of combo draw. top pair, nut flush draw, gut shot str8, then I'm jamming.
If you're playing against a bunch of loose aggressive players, might not have bet at all. They might be on a weak flush and when it hits, they jam. Just depends really

I would carefully read the above post; that covers if you should or should not chase it.

For quick and simple odds, you can estimate by using the rule of two for one card to come. That is number of outs times two plus two. Lets use your 4 card flush example (that is 9 outs);

9 outs x 2 + 2 = 20, so roughly a 20% chance of hitting your flush. If you are not getting better pot odds than that, you can raise to get it there. However, with only 9 outs I might not. 14 outs are the "acceptable" limit for many players before they will raise with outs. You can include the outs for hitting a pair as well with your two cards, but if that is already over-carded on the board and will not save you, do not include it.

For two cards to come, use the rule of 4 (9 times 4 = 36) Caution: The only time you should ever multiply your outs by 4 is when you are on the flop and your opponent has moved all-in. That is because you do not expect to face another bet on the turn that will force you to pay more to try and complete your draw and have to re-calc the pot odds to compare.

Notice how close that is to the below chart.
 

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Poker Orifice

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Notice that it is actually not quite correct.

The rule of 2 4 doesn't consist of adding two after multiplying your outs by 2.

If you have 9outs, it is fairly accurate. Anything over 9 & you need to make adjustments. (ie. if you have 15outs, you are not 30% by turn or 60% by river)
I'll let you look it up first & then when I'm done playing I'll illustrate what I mean.
 
Poker Orifice

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what are the chances of hitting flush when i hold two suited if there is other cards ?


/quote]
Your chance of flopping a flush draw are ~1 in 10 (10.9%)
{flopping a flush is ~ 1 in 100)
Chance of making your flush by the river ~ 35%
 
Michael Paler

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Notice that it is actually not quite correct.

The rule of 2 4 doesn't consist of adding two after multiplying your outs by 2.

If you have 9outs, it is fairly accurate. Anything over 9 & you need to make adjustments. (ie. if you have 15outs, you are not 30% by turn or 60% by river)
I'll let you look it up first & then when I'm done playing I'll illustrate what I mean.

what are the chances of hitting flush when i hold two suited if there is other cards ?


/quote]
Your chance of flopping a flush draw are ~1 in 10 (10.9%)
{flopping a flush is ~ 1 in 100)
Chance of making your flush by the river ~ 35%

P.O., It is an estimation; yes, some people recommend adding two and some people leave it out. Either way just does not make a hill of beans difference, does it? Nope, none at all.:)

Pokersharkk, every time you post something; if you say it's called daylight at noon, a few people will just insist it is really called starlight and you are therefore wrong, way off base, making false assumptions, etc; No adding to the discussion or backing up the accusation made, just argue, argue argue, nit picking the insignificant points. Then some will re-word a posters original comments and plop it in as if somehow more correct, brand new and without proper explanation. Get used to it, I guess. Just do not let it derail your thread.

So keep in mind that 35% to make your flush is only when all in on the flop with two cards yet to come and facing an allin (thus use the rule of 4); it's only 19.6% with any one card to come (use either of the rule of two versions you like).

You can also use the rule of two and the rule of four for any number of outs should you not have the chart memorized. So it will help you for a flush or any other hand you need to know the odds of making when you properly count the outs.
 
Poker Orifice

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P.O., It is an estimation; yes, some people recommend adding two and some people leave it out. Either way just does not make a hill of beans difference, does it? Nope, none at all.:)

Pokersharkk, every time you post something; if you say it's called daylight at noon, a few people will just insist it is really called starlight and you are therefore wrong, way off base, making false assumptions, etc; No adding to the discussion or backing up the accusation made, just argue, argue argue, nit picking the insignificant points. Then some will re-word a posters original comments and plop it in as if somehow more correct, brand new and without proper explanation. Get used to it, I guess. Just do not let it derail your thread.
Ok Michael. Just for you (although you can look it up in a beginner book like Phil Gordon's Little Green Book if you'd like).
When calculating odds/% of making your hand using the Rule of 2 & 4, you need to make adjustments when you have more than 9 outs (this does not entail adding 2% ??).. because the greater number of outs you have, the less accurate this is.

What is commonly used with 2 & 4 rule is >
Anytime you have more than 9 outs, subtract 9 from the total # of outs & subtract that number from your answer.
ie. '15 outs' 4x 15 = 60 - (15 -9) = 54
(look it up & you'll see how much more accurate this is than saying ~60% as the real answer is 54.1%).

ie. '17 outs' 4x 17 = 68 - (17 - 9) = 60

(60 is quite a bit less than 68... no? real answer is 59.8%)

Honestly I don't know anyone who recommends 'adding 2' (well other than you). I'd never heard of that before now.
 
Poker Orifice

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So keep in mind that 35% to make your flush is only when all in on the flop with two cards yet to come and facing an allin (thus use the rule of 4);
I'll nitpick again here Michael (it would seem you like some accuracy as stated prior).
Why do we have to be allin? (why > is 'only' when allin on the flop).
This is rubbish. We don't have to be allin. It's simply a calculation used assuming we're seeing turn & river. Being allin has absolutely 'beans' to do with it.
 
Michael Paler

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Ok Michael. Just for you (although you can look it up in a beginner book like Phil Gordon's Little Green Book if you'd like).
When calculating odds/% of making your hand using the Rule of 2 & 4, you need to make adjustments when you have more than 9 outs (this does not entail adding 2% ??).. because the greater number of outs you have, the less accurate this is.

What is commonly used with 2 & 4 rule is >
Anytime you have more than 9 outs, subtract 9 from the total # of outs & subtract that number from your answer.
ie. '15 outs' 4x 15 = 60 - (15 -9) = 54
(look it up & you'll see how much more accurate this is than saying ~60% as the real answer is 54.1%).

ie. '17 outs' 4x 17 = 68 - (17 - 9) = 60

(60 is quite a bit less than 68... no? real answer is 59.8%)

Honestly I don't know anyone who recommends 'adding 2' (well other than you). I'd never heard of that before now.

Ok. I'll ask;

1.) Why are you criticizing adding that 2 (lol) and then using the rule of 4 to back that up? I clearly said the rule of 2 is outs x 2 + 2. I did not say to add 2 for the rule of 4. Now did I? No, I did not. And wow - 9 outs; 9 x 2 = 18. Plus 2 = 20. Odds of hitting flush (9 outs) with one card to come? 19.6%! (Notice, I added a chart that actually lists all of the exact calcs.)

2.) Just what part of "rough approximation" do you just not get or refuse to accept? Even the 2 added does not matter that much. So, what's the problem? Why are you falling on your sword here over a rough approximation?

So, yet once again, you have used an example out of context and argued a minor (moot) point instead of adding anything useful to this discussion.

lol.
 
Michael Paler

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I'll nitpick again here Michael (it would seem you like some accuracy as stated prior).
Why do we have to be allin? (why > is 'only' when allin on the flop).
This is rubbish. We don't have to be allin. It's simply a calculation used assuming we're seeing turn & river. Being allin has absolutely 'beans' to do with it.

Ok, I guess you really just do not know, so I will gladly explain this to you. It can save you some chips and is a good lesson for you to understand.

Fact: when using the rule of 4, it only applies with 2 cards yet to come.
Fact: If you are not all in on the flop, you still might not actually see two more cards! You might have to fold the turn. That means you will only see one more card. Not 2.

So, lets stick to 9 outs for a flush, the OP's question. It's 35% with two cards to come. If you are not all in and base your pot odds off of a 35% chance of hitting and have to fold the river, you used the wrong calc; get it? You should have used 19.6 (20)%. That is the calc for one card yet to come. You cannot assume you will see the river. So you base your pot odds/hand odds off of the rule of two.

So that means that the rule of 4 is only used for all-ins on the flop. Here are some links that can explain it even better;

http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/pot-odds/4-2/

http://www.learn-texas-holdem.com/tips/the-2-4-rule-for-odds.htm

http://pokerbankrollblog.com/dont-misuse-the-rule-of-2-and-4-for-calculating-poker-odds.htm

It's a common misconception easily made and is made a lot, to this day. So it does really make beans difference! :)
 
Poker Orifice

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Michael. I give up. imo, you are unteachable because it would seem you already know. I won't bother to respond to anymore of your posts.
(PS, you've missed the point of the inaccuracy of the calculation of 2 4 rule w/o making the adjustment. you've also completely missed out on the meaning of my comment that questions your statement that 'only when allin on the flop'... do you know not see how flawed that statement is????)
idk.. maybe this 2 - 4 rule is a new revelation to you? (I just noticed you bumped a 4yr. old thread to let them know about it... even though it didn't pertain to what the OP was inquiring about). Maybe check out Gordon's book. I think you'd like it. (< I'm being nice & trying to help here)

I think I'm talking to a 10cent tourney player (which is fine) but what I'm not interested in is reading the tone of the response. Hence why I won't be responding to anything in the future.
 
Michael Paler

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Michael. I give up. imo, you are unteachable because it would seem you already know. I won't bother to respond to anymore of your posts.
(PS, you've missed the point of the inaccuracy of the calculation of 2 4 rule w/o making the adjustment. you've also completely missed out on the meaning of my comment that questions your statement that 'only when allin on the flop'... do you know not see how flawed that statement is????)
idk.. maybe this 2 - 4 rule is a new revelation to you? (I just noticed you bumped a 4yr. old thread to let them know about it... even though it didn't pertain to what the OP was inquiring about). Maybe check out Gordon's book. I think you'd like it. (< I'm being nice & trying to help here)

I think I'm talking to a 10cent tourney player (which is fine) but what I'm not interested in is reading the tone of the response. Hence why I won't be responding to anything in the future.

Well, those links back up just what I said. I am sorry if it counters what you are saying. And they clearly do. That is not my fault. And I explained in the 4 year old thread why I was responding to a 4 year old thread, not the least of which was a post in there by someone on 13th July 2013, 1:40 PM; Thus no "this thread is over one month old so you can start a new thread" note down at the bottom. A good question is a good question, however, absent of time.:)

As far as Phil Gordon is concerned, I am busy with Brunson, Caro, Sklansky and a few others. I'll certainly try to work my way around to him.
 
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WhineyLobster

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OMG...why is it every post I read...I have to read stupid posts by Michael Paler? Everyone should be on notice that Michael Paler is always right...he doesnt know when to accept that hes wrong and thats our problem...not his.

Dude plays .02/.04 yet....hes a poker pro. :rolleyes:

Seriously...every thread.
 
Michael Paler

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OMG...why is it every post I read...I have to read stupid posts by Michael Paler? Everyone should be on notice that Michael Paler is always right...he doesnt know when to accept that hes wrong and thats our problem...not his.

Dude plays .02/.04 yet....hes a poker pro. :rolleyes:

Seriously...every thread.

Hey, thanks for singling me out in all my posts, derailing threads and saying I am wrong in every one of them in some way, shape or form, starting petty arguments instead of contributing to any conversations, even after I ignore you. Makes me feel loved. Although, I think everyone has a pretty good idea what you look like by doing this.
 

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EvertonGirl

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I learned the 4 x 2 from another site, cant remember which one. That article mentioned that it was penned by Phil Gordon.

When I first learned about the 4x2 I was getting it all wrong. I thought the outs x 2 was waiting for the turn and the outs x 4 was waiting for the river lol. That article I read helped me to understand where I was going wrong.

Later on in the article it said the 4x2 revised:
For turn and river (outs x 4 (all in)) = 36% -1% = 35% actual percentage.
For next card dealt (outs x 2) = 18% +1% = 19% actual percentage.
 
Michael Paler

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I learned the 4 x 2 from another site, cant remember which one. That article mentioned that it was penned by Phil Gordon.

When I first learned about the 4x2 I was getting it all wrong. I thought the outs x 2 was waiting for the turn and the outs x 4 was waiting for the river lol. That article I read helped me to understand where I was going wrong.

Later on in the article it said the 4x2 revised:
For turn and river (outs x 4 (all in)) = 36% -1% = 35% actual percentage.
For next card dealt (outs x 2) = 18% +1% = 19% actual percentage.

Because if you use the rule of 4 and have to fold on the turn, you based everything off of the wrong calculation to compare to your pot odds, right? That was what I took it to mean; if all in on the flop, use the 4. If not, use the 2.

That last link I used (http://pokerbankrollblog.com/dont-misuse-the-rule-of-2-and-4-for-calculating-poker-odds.htm) said the same thing.

But what do I know? I'm just a .02/.04 player, lmao. Thank you EG. I was doing the same thing you were.
 
EvertonGirl

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Because if you use the rule of 4 and have to fold on the turn, you based everything off of the wrong calculation to compare to your pot odds, right? That was what I took it to mean; if all in on the flop, use the 4. If not, use the 2.

That last link I used (http://pokerbankrollblog.com/dont-misuse-the-rule-of-2-and-4-for-calculating-poker-odds.htm) said the same thing.

But what do I know? I'm just a .02/.04 player, lmao. Thank you EG. I was doing the same thing you were.

Well on the turn I was using the x2 rule and if I had not folded I was using the x4 on the river and that is where I was going wrong. Only if you are waiting on 1 card use the x2 and if you think your hand can't be beaten use the x4 (all in)

Your welcome, I hope it helps a lot of people who did not understand the 4X2 rule :)
 
Michael Paler

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Well on the turn I was using the x2 rule and if I had not folded I was using the x4 on the river and that is where I was going wrong. Only if you are waiting on 1 card use the x2 and if you think your hand can't be beaten use the x4 (all in)

Your welcome, I hope it helps a lot of people who did not understand the 4X2 rule :)

Not only that, I like your William J. Florence quote as well. I am not always successful pulling that off, but I am aiming for it, believe it or not.:)
 
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