Final Two table 15 Left Itm with 99 in BB vs LP open! How is my line? 3bet/jam/fold

P

P0KerHoE69

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Jun 17, 2012
Total posts
14
Chips
0
Not a very large sample on villan, as he has only been at the table for 32 hands. He has opened and raised limpers, as well as 3 bet more than anyone at the table. my image has been very solid 19/13 and villan at 25/19!

What is your line in this spot? The pot represents 21% of my stack before i invest any chips..........


Merge, $4 rebuy (1,250/2,500 blinds, 250 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (BB): 49,517 (19.8 bb)
MP1: 36,343 (14.5 bb)
MP2: 48,700 (19.5 bb)
MP3: 42,419 (17 bb)
CO: 87,062 (34.8 bb)
BTN: 43,527 (17.4 bb)
SB: 13,647 (5.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9 9
3 folds, CO raises to 5,000, 2 folds, Hero raises to 49,267 and is all-in, CO calls 44,267

Flop: (101,534) K J A (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: (101,534) 8 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (101,534) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: 101,534 pot
Final Board: K J A 8 Q
Hero showed 9 9
CO showed (??)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
xUnrated

xUnrated

Rock Star
Platinum Level
Joined
May 1, 2012
Total posts
321
Chips
0
Definitely not a shove, too many BB's left for that. If he is a crazy player as hes showing there is a good chance of a call then you are in a race. I would call the 5000 then its an easy fold on that board instead of risking it all with a coin flip probably being the best you could hope for.
 
P

P0KerHoE69

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Jun 17, 2012
Total posts
14
Chips
0
I was thinking along the same lines. After i clicked the shove button lol!!!! 3 betting gives me a sick rush and i really need to control it. I find myself playing too quickly a lot of the times. Going to have to use the 10 second rule for these kind of decisons!
 
B

BluffYou123

Back in the Game
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 14, 2009
Total posts
3,680
Chips
0
With 20bbs this is a shove imo. You'll take down the pot alot of the time preflop.
 
B

BlueNowhere

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 1, 2011
Total posts
4,234
Chips
0
I think shoving is fine/standard. 100% not a call.
 
xUnrated

xUnrated

Rock Star
Platinum Level
Joined
May 1, 2012
Total posts
321
Chips
0
When making a decision, whatever that may be, know why you are doing it. If you cant think of a GOOD reason to do it then you probably shouldnt do it. Right here shoving is okay, if you are going for the win and just the win. But for me I would take it one step at a time, got to cash before you can win and making sure you cash isnt a bad thing. Dont fold AA pre just to cash as a general rule(unless you doubling up means nothing and others are at risk), but I wouldnt put my life on 99 against the type of player you are describing.
 
B

BluffYou123

Back in the Game
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 14, 2009
Total posts
3,680
Chips
0
This is closing in on the final table and already in the money. For me, 99 is too strong to not get it all in vs a late position open with 20bbs here.
 
Poker Orifice

Poker Orifice

Fully Tilted
Platinum Level
Joined
Jan 19, 2008
Total posts
25,599
Awards
6
CA
Chips
968
When making a decision, whatever that may be, know why you are doing it. If you cant think of a GOOD reason to do it then you probably shouldnt do it. Right here shoving is okay, if you are going for the win and just the win. But for me I would take it one step at a time, got to cash before you can win and making sure you cash isnt a bad thing. Dont fold AA pre just to cash as a general rule(unless you doubling up means nothing and others are at risk), but I wouldnt put my life on 99 against the type of player you are describing.
So you'd suggest call preflop on that stack size while OOP vs. LP raise & then what? c/f on 75% of the flops (or more)? How is that profitable?
 
W

WiZZiM

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 28, 2009
Total posts
5,008
Chips
0
Basically, listen to everyone but unrated.

This is 100% shove, we have antes in play so we do not have a true 19 BB stack, more like 15 BB's.
 
L

LaserCats

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 24, 2011
Total posts
162
Chips
0
The only thing I can add is: Hows the style of play at the table? IS it conservative? or Monkey shove time? If their dropping like flies you may want to wait it out and ride up the leader board as they donk out. If its conservative - wiat for a better spot to risk it all - this guys gonna call an all in IMHO. Whether he has 22 or a rag I'm betting this guy thinks others alway have a flip hand thats worse than his. You have plenty of time to catch AA, KK, QQ etc. and have him diown to 20% range pf. As opposed to 48%, or even worse 10 10 & ur crushed. Think of him as a free double up - 20 hands from now you could be down to $10k but with 10 players left, jam him and go up to $25k with blinds with a much better hand than 99. Jam him off his cards now and get to $25k but risk it all at 15th place... No play is wrong here - dbl up now and go deep or gamble and bust out. Ur not a genius until he turns over his cards and shows 22... or AA.
 
P

P0KerHoE69

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Jun 17, 2012
Total posts
14
Chips
0
Preflop: Hero is BB with 9 9
3 folds, CO raises to 5,000, 2 folds, Hero raises to 49,267 and is all-in, CO calls 44,267

Flop: (101,534) K J A (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: (101,534) 8 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (101,534) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: 101,534 pot
Final Board: K J A 8 Q
Hero showed 9 9
CO showed (KK)
I would like to thank everyone for all the replies here! For me poker is about doing the right thing and making small mistakes and not big ones. I have managed to regain a lot of new found love,being more active and posting hands.
 
Poker Orifice

Poker Orifice

Fully Tilted
Platinum Level
Joined
Jan 19, 2008
Total posts
25,599
Awards
6
CA
Chips
968
The only thing I can add is: Hows the style of play at the table? IS it conservative? or Monkey shove time? If their dropping like flies you may want to wait it out and ride up the leader board as they donk out. If its conservative - wiat for a better spot to risk it all - this guys gonna call an all in IMHO. Whether he has 22 or a rag I'm betting this guy thinks others alway have a flip hand thats worse than his. You have plenty of time to catch AA, KK, QQ etc. and have him diown to 20% range pf. As opposed to 48%, or even worse 10 10 & ur crushed. Think of him as a free double up - 20 hands from now you could be down to $10k but with 10 players left, jam him and go up to $25k with blinds with a much better hand than 99. Jam him off his cards now and get to $25k but risk it all at 15th place... No play is wrong here - dbl up now and go deep or gamble and bust out. Ur not a genius until he turns over his cards and shows 22... or AA.
For starters your numbers here ^ are wayyyy off (ie. how does he 'jam him off his cards now & go up to 25k'... when he's sitting with 49k before the hand?).
Suggesting he blind down & wait for AA KK QQ is a bit absurd (my opinion). Table has one super shortstack & ALL the rest are <20bb resteal-stacks.
Not sure what you mean by 'monkey shove table'... I'd be thinking there's not much room for any play here besides 3bet shoves for the most part. This one here with 99 seems as good a spot as any imo. (villain calling w 22 = bad imo).
I'm also not sure how we arrive at assuming villain's line of thinking? (is this because we assume he's thinking as we'd be thinking? or is it based on something else? I'm honestly confused & not meaning to be a dick or anything... sorry if it comes off sounding that way).
 
B

BlueNowhere

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 1, 2011
Total posts
4,234
Chips
0
The only thing I can add is: Hows the style of play at the table? IS it conservative? or Monkey shove time? If their dropping like flies you may want to wait it out and ride up the leader board as they donk out. If its conservative - wiat for a better spot to risk it all - this guys gonna call an all in IMHO. Whether he has 22 or a rag I'm betting this guy thinks others alway have a flip hand thats worse than his. You have plenty of time to catch AA, KK, QQ etc. and have him diown to 20% range pf. As opposed to 48%, or even worse 10 10 & ur crushed. Think of him as a free double up - 20 hands from now you could be down to $10k but with 10 players left, jam him and go up to $25k with blinds with a much better hand than 99. Jam him off his cards now and get to $25k but risk it all at 15th place... No play is wrong here - dbl up now and go deep or gamble and bust out. Ur not a genius until he turns over his cards and shows 22... or AA.

Lol, there are quite blatantly several wrong plays. folding is bad and calling is worse.
 
Drunkard912

Drunkard912

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 11, 2009
Total posts
42
Chips
0
Thats just a cooler in my opinion. With under 20bbs and facing a late position raise from an aggressive opponent 99 is more than enough to ship em. Calling and folding are both -ev plays over the long run.
 
B

BlueNowhere

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 1, 2011
Total posts
4,234
Chips
0
Thats just a cooler in my opinion. With under 20bbs and facing a late position raise from an aggressive opponent 99 is more than enough to ship em. Calling and folding are both -ev plays over the long run.

Folding is never -ev., it just isn't optimal.
 
Folding in Poker
Top