Final table of a satellite tournament vs. manic

seachicken

seachicken

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A couple of nights ago i played in a tournament that offered 5 seats to a $25,000 guarantee 100 player live tournament. Only the top five received seats and no extras for 1st place. We were down to 7 people when the manic to my left (chip leader) started shoving all-in. Chip stacks were the following starting with me and going clockwise around table( these are all approximate numbers taken at the last break about 2 hands ago).
me $52,000
$107,000
$18,000
$15,000
$35,000
$40,000
$20,000

The guy to my left had shoved all-in about 12 times in row and blinds are $1,000/$2,000. No anti and everyone was just colored up. Everyone folds to me and i look down at QQ. Easy lay down? would you call with AA or is that an easy lay down? Any thoughts.
 
Poker Orifice

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ez peezy laydown.
think about what you have to gain from a call & win.. vs. call & lose.
 
Egon Towst

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Easy fold. In this situation, you have a very high probability of qualifying without needing to take any risks. So, you have little to gain and a great deal to lose by going to war with the big stack player.
 
the lab man

the lab man

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Fold your way to seat....
 
seachicken

seachicken

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That was my thinking and what i did. After this hand i stop looking at my cards for about 15 hands. I don't play in a lot of tournaments where you are playing for 5th place but i couldn't think of shoving any hand given my stack size compared to the field. I actually skipped break and counted everyone's chips but even after counting twice i was 13k short. I really wanted to shove and have him call because the guy was a jerk but i couldn't justify the shove. The reason i even asked was because i folded the hand face up and after the tournament I took a lot of heat.
Given the stack sizes at what stack sizes would you shove/call shove with QQ? (I thought i asked this in my first post but i must have deleted it).

Edit: I should note this tournament ended up lasting longer than i expected and i had to actually play my way into a seat.
 
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only_bridge

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That was my thinking and what i did. After this hand i stop looking at my cards for about 15 hands. I don't play in a lot of tournaments where you are playing for 5th place but i couldn't think of shoving any hand given my stack size compared to the field. I actually skipped break and counted everyone's chips but even after counting twice i was 13k short. I really wanted to shove and have him call because the guy was a jerk but i couldn't justify the shove. The reason i even asked was because i folded the hand face up and after the tournament I took a lot of heat.
Given the stack sizes at what stack sizes would you shove/call shove with QQ? (I thought i asked this in my first post but i must have deleted it).

Edit: I should note this tournament ended up lasting longer than i expected and i had to actually play my way into a seat.
QQ is really the hand you dont want to get dealt at that stage of a satellite.
Satellite bubbles are very special.
Given the other players stack sizes I would say you call with 15k stack and fold with any 20k+ stack.
 
the lab man

the lab man

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there are a number of things you look at.. most Important your chip stack position
1st # of chips and Chip Stack Position to # of seats left to make satellite.
Ie your chip leader you insta call with Qs ( obviously depends on the raise/push) never be a table sherriff
2nd your mid chip stack position in relation to all...toughest position to play.
3rd your low chip stack position bubble or worse and have Qs...easy push here
Depending on your chip stack position and size of blinds you may have to incorporate a blind and chip and time stack stragedy to help you make the cut.
can't give you a BB or M value on when to call, to me it depends on Position/chip stack
I'm trying to help but I am not the best at putting into written words what or how I think
 
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only_bridge

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Ok, I did some simulations.
Its really quite simple.
I just googled ICM calculator, then put in 100 as price for 1st to 5th, then put in the stack sizes.

If for example the opponents has the stack sizes you stated, and you have 20k.
Then the big stack pushes and you call.
You will then have almost 80% chance to win vs ranom hand, plus the risk of someone else actually calling behind you with AA.
So I would say you have around 78% equity.
If you dbl you go from 62.4% to 82.7% chance to win.
And if you loose you are out.
So 78% of the time you increase your chance of qualifying with 20.3%, and 22% of the time you decrease your chances with 62.4%
That means you would have a slightly possitive expectation calling with QQ when down to 20k.

Now if you want to play around with some figures, and see how it turns out I recommend that you download pokerstove for hands calculations, and google ICM calculator for tournament equity.
 
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seachicken

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Ok, I did some simulations.
Its really quite simple.
I just googled ICM calculator, then put in 100 as price for 1st to 5th, then put in the stack sizes.

If for example the opponents has the stack sizes you stated, and you have 20k.
Then the big stack pushes and you call.
You will then have almost 80% chance to win vs ranom hand, plus the risk of someone else actually calling behind you with AA.
So I would say you have around 78% equity.
If you dbl you go from 62.4% to 82.7% chance to win.
And if you loose you are out.
So 78% of the time you increase your chance of qualifying with 20.3%, and 22% of the time you decrease your chances with 62.4%
That means you would have a slightly possitive expectation calling with QQ when down to 20k.

Now if you want to play around with some figures, and see how it turns out I recommend that you download pokerstove for hands calculations, and google ICM calculator for tournament equity.

Thanks for the advice. I was actually playing around with pokerstove and running ev calculation for random hands, over pair, under pair and high/low card and tried to do different chip stack models but i just needed to goggle icm calculator. lol

I had a trial of sng wizard but it wouldn't load on my computer. Last night i sat down and ran the different number with icm poker, I even ran other hands that called shoves and shoved.
 
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swingro

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Every chip you have more than 6 and 7 place worth a seat at the live tournament. Kidding. But in this case the guys with 18k and 15k and 20k need a lot of luck to qualify. The competition in our case is between them. They have to risk and a lot and get very lucky. You do not need ICM to see that 3 guys are shortstack and have to do something quick. In this case calling they need something before getting out blinded. And there is another factor than what ICM says. The fear factor. If the giant stack shoves all the stacks that do not have to worry for the moment are afraid of geting busted. they tremble with aces in their hands. For example the guy with 20k is scared like hell . He knows that the 2 stacks smaller than his will have to call at some point. If one of them will get lucky to double up, his a.ss will be on fire. But also if he calls with AA or KK and gets busted by a bad beat he knows another chance to qualify will not come quickly. And aces and kings do not come often. If there will be another 2-3 rounds of folding he will find himself outblinded but he will still fold hands like TT, JJ.
 
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seachicken

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My main concern was that the donkey was going all in with atc. And what ended up happening was 3 people ended up doubling up through the donkey and i found myself with an average chip stack. If the guy would have just played smart the thing would have been over in a about 2 orbits but as it turned out it lasted almost 2 hours.

I was really hoping the table would knock the idiot out after he fell from $52k to $5k. He had just lost $20k and was now at $52K when he limped UTG and i woke up with Ad10d in the bb. I checked and hit the jackpot flop. Jd,6d, 2d. I check he bets and i call. next card Qd and i check and he shoves all in and starts giving a speeck about how great he is at poker. I was going to insta call but i was enjoying the donkey show. I called and he showed Kd3c. On the next hand he was all in with $5k in the bb (blinds 4k/8k) and 3 people called with really bad hands 72, 23, 74 and i called with JTo. He had Q4 and flop came AQ4 and he ended up winning 25k. In the next hand a guy ended up going out on a bad flop call, turn call, and river shove to end the tournament.
 
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baudib1

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I cannot see how this is a good call regardless of what ICM says. Problem is it's hard to calculate the impact that a big stack shoving ATC has on the rest of the table, it's very likely that the other shorties are going to widen their range too much.
 
AtiFCOD

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You have to fold it. You are at very good position. Only have to wait for 2 players to go.
 
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