Fighting the semi-bluff
You must have heard somewhere that you should raise to punish draws, or to deny their opponents good odds
to chase them. Let's get right to the point: It is good to invest and put money on the table when you are ahead, it's good bet enough to give odds wrong for opponents chase their draws - but you probably should not raise in your opponents even if they suspect they They are on a draw.
In a nutshell: bet to punish draws, but do not give raise to punish draws.
The problem is that when you have a hand that wants to take to the showdown, as an overpair or top pair - and applies raise from your opponent that you suspect is semiblefando (but not sure) is that it has the option to re-raise with their monsters or just to call with draws. This is true for both limit as to no-limit. In fact, depending on the tendencies of your opponent, you can have up to 75% sure he's semiblefando and yet it would be wrong to raise. Let's look at an example:
A flop heads-up where you went preflop against BB. You have AA, the board shows T92 with two hearts and spades. You bet and your opponent in the BB calls. The turn is a 5 of spades. His opponent comes out betting. Even if you suspect that he is semiblefando hoping to pick up the pot against a to-high that has not improved or some similiar hand, you still should not give the raise. If we expect that his range is a big draw (open ended straight draws, flush draws) as well as can be two pair or set, then we have this prediction:
Half the time, you win 80% of the time
Half the time, you get about 10% of the time
On average, it has the advantage. That alone is enough to know that we should not raise. But what if the chances of it being semiblefando were 2/3?
2/3 of the time, you have 80% winning chances
1/3 of the time, you get about 10% of the time