Facing shove at bubble time - with a twist

Sorry I do not have handy access to a hand converter - but I do try to keep this short and easy to read

Buy-in $5.50
BB=400
5 people ITM – 6 people remain in the game
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Chips:
Me: 3065
Button: 7017
SB: 5613
BB: 3230
PlayerA: 2792
PlayerB: 5783
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I got 5h 5c
PlayerA-folds..PlayerB-folds...I went 3xBB=raise to 1200….Button shoves=7017.…SB-folds…BB-folds

Button is a good buddy of mine. I often rail him, he always feels very unlucky, copies to me in the MSN his bad beats.
In fact he is a very good player – but of course he cannot win every time.. lol… but he is very sad when he loses.
He also knows that I am a solid player.

Frankly I was stunned he went all-in on my big raise. We had MSN open and I said to him “wt#@#@ are u doing to me” .. he said “call”..
I thought a bit then called – as I would have been real short if I folded and frankly I was emotionally real disturbed by his bet

Button had Ad, Qd



-Some of my thoughts in retrospect: I should have shoved not 3xBB
-In my opinion Button was overaggressive and took a high risk – I guess he had enough chips to be able to afford a loss and still hope to do well. Real curious what would you think would have been a better/best play from me and the Button. Also would the personal relationship effected you/your perception of the play in any way?
-I know rite or wrong - I would not have done the shove - if roles were reversed - ie force a friend in bubble position with a half baked hand..

Also some more info - minimum win was $7 and winner was getting $77

vegasjj said:

-Some of my thoughts in retrospect: I should have shoved not 3xBB
ABSOLUTELY
-In my opinion Button was overaggressive and took a high risk – I guess he had enough chips to be able to afford a loss and still hope to do well. Real curious what would you think would have been a better/best play from me and the Button. Also would the personal relationship effected you/your perception of the play in any way?
NO - HE EXPLOITED YOUR MISTAKE OF NOT SHOVING WITH HIS VERY GOOD HAND. YOUR UNWILLINGNESS TO SHOVE WAS PROBABLY INTERPRETED AS WEAK AND INCREASED THE RANGE HE THOUGHT YOU MIGHT DO THAT WITH. NOT THAT HE WOULD HAVE FOLDED WITH AQs.
THE ONLY WAY THE RELATIONSHIP AFFECTS MY PLAY IS I KNOW MORE ABOUT HIS PLAY.
-I know rite or wrong - I would not have done the shove - if roles were reversed - ie force a friend in bubble position with a half baked hand..
IT MAY JUST BE MATTER OF HOW THE TWO OF YOU VALUE THAT HAND. WOULD YOU HAVE DONE IT WITH AA? KK? QQ? NOT AT ALL? EVERYONE HAS THEIR PRICE.

Also some more info - minimum win was $7 and winner was getting $77
THEN I"M GOING FOR THE WIN. I DON"T CARE IF MY MAMA IS AT THE TABLE.

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Hope you are not taking it personal.

basically, don't play it like this, ever. this is a really easy jam, you are way too short to raise fold so therefore you should never raise call because you only have value hands and never weaker hands. regardless, you'd rather they all fold because then you pick up the blinds with 100% equity and add a lot to your stack.

as for button, its a snap rejam.

MediaBLITZ said:

WOULD YOU HAVE DONE IT WITH AA? KK? QQ? NOT AT ALL? EVERYONE HAS THEIR PRICE.
yes pretty sure with AA, KK - maybe with QQ

Also some more info - minimum win was $7 and winner was getting $77
THEN I"M GOING FOR THE WIN. I DON"T CARE IF MY MAMA IS AT THE TABLE.
Just love your comment - it sure did lighten my mood and helped with your last comment below.
Hope you are not taking it personal.

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Thanks very much to both of you for taking the time to answer. It really did help!

Yes was a weak play on my part NO DOUBT!
I still think AQ - is a great hand to be first bettor with - I do not think of it as a great hand to call a solid player with. It is bound to be a race where likely I would be slightly behind. More comments on that?

vegasjj said:

Thanks very much to both of you for taking the time to answer. It really did help!

Yes was a weak play on my part NO DOUBT!
I still think AQ - is a great hand to be first bettor with - I do not think of it as a great hand to call a solid player with. It is bound to be a race where likely I would be slightly behind. More comments on that?

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His play is fine ainec. Pretty huge mistake if you fold AQs from his position.

vegasjj said:

Thanks very much to both of you for taking the time to answer. It really did help!

Yes was a weak play on my part NO DOUBT!
I still think AQ - is a great hand to be first bettor with - I do not think of it as a great hand to call a solid player with. It is bound to be a race where likely I would be slightly behind. More comments on that?

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You're right it's not a good hand to call with, but he didn't call... Jamming after your 3x raise is a good play IMO, because he's forcing you to make what was obviously a very tough decision. His hand is actually pretty strong - only dominated by QQ+ and AK - and he's most likely getting a lot of fold equity against your smaller pairs range. Even when you don't fold he has decent equity against smaller pairs. So basically he's assuming he's flipping or dominating you a lot of the time, and probably thinks that most of the time you're folding.

A strong shove IMO.

Quit colluding it's illegal.

Scourrge said:

You're right it's not a good hand to call with

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No he isn't right in saying that, if hero shoves villian should be just snap overshoving.

Scourrge said:

You're right it's not a good hand to call with, but he didn't call... Jamming after your 3x raise is a good play IMO, because he's forcing you to make what was obviously a very tough decision. His hand is actually pretty strong - only dominated by QQ+ and AK - and he's most likely getting a lot of fold equity against your smaller pairs range. Even when you don't fold he has decent equity against smaller pairs. So basically he's assuming he's flipping or dominating you a lot of the time, and probably thinks that most of the time you're folding.

A strong shove IMO.

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Absolutely. Also consider this vegasjj - you are a short stack with what should only be two moves, shove or fold. The other players at the table figure this widens your range quite a bit (as it should). It was a good, strong, aggressive move on his part - EVEN IF YOU HAD SHOVED. Of the 30+ hands in your range at this time there are only 4 of them that crush him. 10 of them put him in a race situation meaning he dominates all the others. See how that's good play on his part?

BlueNowhere said:

No he isn't right in saying that, if hero shoves villian should be just snap overshoving.

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I thought we were talking about when the Hero 3x's it - may have misinterpreted, but the rest is still valid

And yeah, agree on the over-shove, assuming it's folded to the BTN.

hackmeplz said:

Quit colluding it's illegal.

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You are the only person that said something about that. lol. You all are telling him how to play the hand and you may one day be sitting at the table where him and his buddy are cheating and he may use the same strategy you are telling him to use against you lol. JMHO.

hackmeplz said:

Quit colluding it's illegal.

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just to clear something - there was NO COLLUDING - it is wrong for you to assume that.
My MSN and skype are open most of the time - Love to chat with my friends - they rail me - I rail them. I noticed he was on MSN too - and just was pissed - BUT - I gave no indication of my hand he gave no indication of his hand I would NEVER do that - I think he would NEVER do either. So let's not turn this into something it is not.

Seems real unanimous that the AQ shove was correct - many of you say even if I played the hand correctly (shove) it would have been a correct play on his part.

I did not see it that way - but I understand it way better now.

Now let me ask ... with my 55 hand in the said position - I was one of the basically 3 short stacks... what would be the correct play?
I still think a shove would be rite - but reading all the answers I wonder if you would recommend a fold?

vegasjj said:

Seems real unanimous that the AQ shove was correct - many of you say even if I played the hand correctly it would have been a correct play on his part.

I did not see it that way - but I understand it way better now.

Now let me ask ... with my 55 hand in the said position - I was one of the basically 3 short stacks... what would be the correct play?
I still think a shove would be rite - but reading all the answers I wonder if you would recommend a fold?

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A shove with the 55 is definitely correct. If you are willing to make a raise, but a raise makes you feel pot-committed, you should probably be shoving that hand. That's usually good logic.

But more mathematically speaking... You only have 7.5 bb left. You MUST be in a shove-or-fold mindset here, and pretty any pocket pair should be a shove. Some people may opt against shoving 22 or 33 here, but IMO any pair is a shove because even when you get called (which you DON'T want - we want the blinds), you have a decent chunk of equity against any hand except for better pocket pairs.

hackmeplz said:

Quit colluding it's illegal.

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queenie279 said:

You are the only person that said something about that

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Cept me...

vegasjj said:

just to clear something - there was NO COLLUDING

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Sure there was. And it's so rampant these days that you think this was normal/okay. Were you having a conversation during the hand that nobody else at the table was privy to?

What's the difference between that, and leaning over to whisper something into the ear of your opponent, during the hand, in a live game?

-

JusSumguy said:

Cept me...
Sure there was. And it's so rampant these days that you think this was normal/okay. Were you having a conversation during the hand that nobody else at the table was privy to?

What's the difference between that, and leaning over to whisper something into the ear of your opponent, during the hand, in a live game?

-

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He's got a point. You were discussing the hand and he even advised you on what your play should be. You don't have to reveal cards for there to be collusion. But I understand - that was never your intent.

vegasjj said:

Seems real unanimous that the AQ shove was correct - many of you say even if I played the hand correctly (shove) it would have been a correct play on his part.

I did not see it that way - but I understand it way better now.

Now let me ask ... with my 55 hand in the said position - I was one of the basically 3 short stacks... what would be the correct play?
I still think a shove would be rite - but reading all the answers I wonder if you would recommend a fold?

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No to a fold - in fact in this situation you went to the flop ahead. A shove was the correct play for both of you.

Personally, with 6 players left and I'm in the cutoff that gets folded to me - I really have to seriously consider shoving any hand I'm dealt with only 7 BB left. Just one more orbit and I could be down to less than 5 BB (depending on ante's and the blinds clock) and the only way I can come out of that is to get very lucky. At least with 7 BB I can add a bit of fold equity to that luck factor.

MediaBLITZ said:

No to a fold - in fact in this situation you went to the flop ahead. A shove was the correct play for both of you.

Personally, with 6 players left and I'm in the cutoff that gets folded to me - I really have to seriously consider shoving any hand I'm dealt with only 7 BB left. Just one more orbit and I could be down to less than 5 BB (depending on ante's and the blinds clock) and the only way I can come out of that is to get very lucky. At least with 7 BB I can add a bit of fold equity to that luck factor.

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I do also believe that in the situation - a shove would have been the right play with any semi-decent hand. However - an alternate strategy would be to try and sit back and hope and pray that one of the other 2 short stacks will get eliminated first. Also in this case the "big stack" was only apx. 2 times larger then the short stack so chip positions can get reversed real fast. Any comments?

55 is a snap shove. You're probably hesitant because you're focused on his calling range. But most players don't call widely enough. Let's say you figure he'll call 20% of the time. That means you win the blinds 80% of the time, which is the main reason to do what MediaBlitz said, strongly consider shoving any two.

And even if he does call, you probably think you're in far worse shape than you are. Pokerstove isn't perfect since it doesn't always reflect how people actually play, but if you use its top 20% as the calling range vs your 55, you're 45.8% to win.

So 80% of the time, you win 600. Just over 9% of the time, you more than double up, and just under 11% of the time, you're out.

This means that over 89% of the time, the result is positive if you shove. And the chip EV is clearly positive as well. How can you afford not to?

If you change the 20% to any reasonable number, the calculations will change, but not the mathematical conclusion, which will be that you should shove.

It's more complex to calculate, or even to ballpark in the few seconds you have at the table, but your dollar EV is almost certainly higher if you shove, this despite there being other short stacks.

those numbers are useless unless you put in actual # of chips you will win.

80% of the time you win 600, 9% of the time 6600, 11% of the time lose you 3000

don't think i need to do the math on how much you'll win long run by shoving

vegasjj said:

I do also believe that in the situation - a shove would have been the right play with any semi-decent hand. However - an alternate strategy would be to try and sit back and hope and pray that one of the other 2 short stacks will get eliminated first. Also in this case the "big stack" was only apx. 2 times larger then the short stack so chip positions can get reversed real fast. Any comments?

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Well do you want to hope and pray or do you want to play cards? One of my check points before "making a move" is asking myself if I am just hoping or am I actually playing with some sort of skill and strategy?

The popular theory is everyone is on guard at this stage and the aggressor has a great opportunity to pull away from the pack. For example you thought AQs was not strong enough to move all in with - the aggressor's will take all your money a blind at a time. So let's say you are okay with this because the same is happening to another short stack. But then all of a sudden that other short stack goes all in with AJ and the big stack figures he has to call to end this with his KJ (all a very likely scenario). Now the other shorty just doubled up and all hungry eyes are on you.

But honestly - they have done studies on what you propose and they have found that 40% of the time, it works all of the time. (it's a joke)

Here's the bottom line on poker play strategy - play the opposite of the table. If everyone else is unwilling to be aggressive then you really need to step up and become the predator. Your cards are practically of no consequence - the fact that the rest of table is going uber-conservative to protect their stack is an invitation to rape and pillage to put yourself into a safer position among the chip leaders.

Also I think you need to straighten out your preflop play. 6-handed, AQs is a MONSTER - no gray area whatsoever.

MediaBLITZ said:

Your cards are practically of no consequence - the fact that the rest of table is going uber-conservative to protect their stack is an invitation to rape and pillage to put yourself into a safer position among the chip leaders.

Also I think you need to straighten out your preflop play. 6-handed, AQs is a MONSTER - no gray area whatsoever.

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So much this.

So much real well explained points, great advice!

Thank you all especially to MediaBLITZ and Scourrge for taking so much time to coach me! :flowers:

MediaBLITZ said:

He's got a point. You were discussing the hand and he even advised you on what your play should be. You don't have to reveal cards for there to be collusion. But I understand - that was never your intent.

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This ^ (realize it wasn't your intention but am actually surprised to hear this happens in what I'm assuming to be a private game). I used to occassionally be on Skype while playing & even at times with some players in same game but not once did anyone ever discuss anything about a hand. Just leaves a bad taste.

Oh & real easy shove (don't raise 3x), & real easy reshove w AQ (keep in mind the deadmoney in the middle as well.... typically you should be shoving pretty wide there but even if villain knows you're not (esp. with '3x-ing' it there, which would make it seem even that much bigger/stronger (top of range) it's still a super easy shove.
sidenote: most 'very good' players don't send HH's of badbeats or talk about how they've been done great injustices (I do though, lol .. but only to Ramdeebam).

Pascal-lf said:

those numbers are useless unless you put in actual # of chips you will win.

80% of the time you win 600, 9% of the time 6600, 11% of the time lose you 3000

don't think i need to do the math on how much you'll win long run by shoving

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Focusing on the EV calculation with the specific example numbers I used is much less important than larger point, which is that if you plug in any likely calling range, shoving a hand as good as 55 is always mathematically +EV. Once you know this, you don't need to concern yourself with assessing the difference in EV depending whether you'll get called 20% or 25% or 35% or 10% of the time. The difference in EV is not enough to change your optimal action.