F#@%! skills!

Hello Chatters!
I have been in an ongoing argument about the impact of skill in tournament poker. I propose that it is minimal. Sure enough, variance balances itself given a statistically signifigant number of hands, and odds will be more or less realised.
Alas, in tournaments, given the specific nature of the game, where you usually play for a big portion - if not the whole - of your stack, one unlucky outcome ruins the whole darn thing.
My latest example:
I registered for a value tournament in ACR, $2.50 + 0.25 buy-in, $12.500 GTD.
The first hand I get involved in, I make a standard raise and watch what happens:

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/3qqZcEl



I get moved right after that and I get involved in a second hand:

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/2qqZcOA


Freezeout tourney was over within a few moments.
I am fairly convinced that I didn't make a mistake and both times I was way ahead when the chips went in the middle. Skillwise I was the better one, but the idiot that shoved A8o was the one doubling up. My nines were ahead of the Ace-rag, but they were counterfeited and my tourney life was over.
I say: F@#%$ skills! Luck rulezzz!

You're an idiot.

BenSprocket said:

You're an idiot.

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Thank you for your insightful and detailed analysis!

You think a thread with this title and content deserved more?

I'd say, there was no skill. Skill is to know, when to fold. Why risk all stack with hand AQ? Guy with A8 could have AK/AA, and actually, he should.

ios said:

I'd say, there was no skill. Skill is to know, when to fold. Why risk all stack with hand AQ? Guy with A8 could have AK/AA, and actually, he should.

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The fact that I had a good read and I was way ahead means nothing to you? He had position and fold equity. That widens his anyway loose range even more. Folding in this spot, being the 73% favourite is a -EV move.
He could and he should, but he didn't! It wasn't even a flip.

Believe me I feel your pain. This happens all the time in the micro tournaments that is more the rule than the exception. They always seem to get rewarded too. Not a word of a lie, I was playing a $1 tournament the other day. One guy called and went all in every hand. And he kept with winning with stuff like 84o and 92s against AA or AQ. He eventually busted when I went all in with AA and he called with 42o! The funny thing is I got an A on the flop then it went 3,5 on turn and river to give him a wheel!

The problem is nobody cares or will feel bad for you as it happens to us all. They say it’ll even out over time but it seems like there is one player every tournament who cannot lose no matter what he has or when he calls. It’s almost like they draw a player at the beginning of the tournament and the site says “Ok it’s your turn to win. No matter what you do you will win every hand”.

Hope your luck changes.

New to poker are we? Cute!

terryk said:

New to poker are we? Cute!

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PsychoVas said:

The fact that I had a good read and I was way ahead means nothing to you? He had position and fold equity. That widens his anyway loose range even more. Folding in this spot, being the 73% favourite is a -EV move.
He could and he should, but he didn't! It wasn't even a flip.

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You said, it was 1st board of tournament.Seems like you didnt had a read, but just a hope that he's worse. AI is not about skill but about luck. 73% is not 100%, on four cases you win three times, one lose. But still, if you feel skilled, why getting involved into AI when you dont have to? Why not wait for board which requires skill play? I'd feel for you, if he'd broken your aces.

PsychoVas said:

The fact that I had a good read and I was way ahead means nothing to you? He had position and fold equity. That widens his anyway loose range even more. Folding in this spot, being the 73% favorite is a -EV move.
He could and he should, but he didn't! It wasn't even a flip.

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The fact that you don't expect a donk to not reraise you all in with a 4 bb blind in a low stakes tourney is somewhat confusing. You have played over 4000 low stakes tourneys and this comes as a shock?..

Ouch! I was about to give a nasty comment to this post, but someone already did it so yea, just get ur game better then skills will matter. cHEERS

ios said:

You said, it was 1st board of tournament.Seems like you didnt had a read, but just a hope that he's worse. AI is not about skill but about luck. 73% is not 100%, on four cases you win three times, one lose. But still, if you feel skilled, why getting involved into AI when you dont have to? Why not wait for board which requires skill play? I'd feel for you, if he'd broken your aces.

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I wrote it was the first hand I got involved, not the first in general. My point and argument is not that I played good or bad. My point is that no matter how ahead you are in a hand, you might lose. Thus, in tournaments where only one bad run out is enough to ruin your game, skill is not important. All you need is luck (not love).

run187 said:

The fact that you don't expect a donk to not reraise you all in with a 4 bb blind in a low stakes tourney is somewhat confusing. You have played over 4000 low stakes tourneys and this comes as a shock?..

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No surpprise at all, I don't know what in my text gave that impression. In fact we want that to happen, getting shoved on with worse hands. My point is that in tourneys skill plays a very limited role. Bad moves and getting it in from way behind might mean that you win. I might continue posting hands like that in here, as I see that most people do not even consider I might have a point there.

PsychoVas said:

I wrote it was the first hand I got involved, not the first in general. My point and argument is not that I played good or bad. My point is that no matter how ahead you are in a hand, you might lose. Thus, in tournaments where only one bad run out is enough to ruin your game, skill is not important. All you need is luck (not love).

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Of course, you can lose AI with any hand. Even with AA. But after you explained your point, I can agree - in tournaments like freeroll, luck factor is important, because lot of people do not care if they dont put money into.