re: Poker & EV
The probability of someone folding isn't an exact science, more of a "Guesstimate". What you can do firstly though, it put the guy on a range, let's say, A6+ 22+ K10S+. Ok out of what hands will this particular player call a 3b shove with? now im not going to bother with stack size or all that shit. Just think next time, what kind of hands he will call with, and what he is likely to fold. That is where your read at the table is really helpful.
Now im not to sure on this, im not a math guy, but probability of hero winning can be done using "poker stove" punch in your opponants range, vs your hand, and that should give you your answer. Again, don't really know for sure. that's what i would use. Except, say villian is on that range above, but hes only calling with JJ+ AQs+ thats the range i would use, against my own hand, to determine probability of winning (SOMEONE CORRECT ME PLEASE!! )
More than one villian.. who knows..