DON shove ranges?

I am slightly confused about what ICM says about what to do in some situations.


Hand 1

Merge - $5+$0.40|<> NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 3,593.00
SB: 2,351.00
BB: 2,090.00
UTG: 2,470.00
MP: 2,036.00
Hero (CO): 2,460.00

BTN posts ante 15.00, SB posts ante 15.00, BB posts ante 15.00, UTG posts ante 15.00, MP posts ante 15.00, Hero posts ante 15.00, SB posts SB 150.00, BB posts BB 300.00

Pre Flop: (pot: 540.00) Hero has Th Ac

fold, fold, Hero???

ICM had this hand being about a 2% fold. To me A10 seems like a pretty good hand against only 3 people left plus there is 540 in the pot already which makes up roughly 20% of my stack. Plus everyone left is fairly tight (13/8) being the loosest in the blinds). I want to know why is this a fold. Is it because there are to many people behind me and I have a decent stack so it is not worth the risk? I assume that if I had ~1500 then it would be an easy shove.


Hand 2

Merge - $5+$0.40|<> NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 1,165.00
UTG+1: 4,215.00
MP: 2,745.00
CO: 1,225.00
BTN: 1,925.00
Hero (SB): 1,350.00
BB: 2,375.00

UTG posts ante 10.00, UTG+1 posts ante 10.00, MP posts ante 10.00, CO posts ante 10.00, BTN posts ante 10.00, Hero posts ante 10.00, BB posts ante 10.00, Hero posts SB 100.00, BB posts BB 200.00

Pre Flop: (pot: 370.00) Hero has 8s Qd

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero???

ICM has this being very slightly a shove which I seem to understand. I only have to get through one person and it would add 25% to my stack. (BB is 21/14 FYI). But I am confused about the difference between this and and hand 3, which is from the same game the next round.

Hand 3

Merge - $5+$0.40|<> NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 1,715.00
UTG: 3,825.00
UTG+1: 2,355.00
MP: 1,390.00
CO: 1,285.00
Hero (BTN): 1,450.00
SB: 2,980.00

BB posts ante 15.00, UTG posts ante 15.00, UTG+1 posts ante 15.00, MP posts ante 15.00, CO posts ante 15.00, Hero posts ante 15.00, SB posts ante 15.00, SB posts SB 150.00, BB posts BB 300.00

Pre Flop: (pot: 555.00) Hero has Kh 6c

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero??

This seems like a very similar situation as hand 2, but ICM has it being a fold by 2%. What makes this so much different than hand 2? my hand is roughly the same strength and my stack is about the same. the only difference is that now I have to get through the SB who happens to be on the short side but is tight (7/5). how big of a difference does one more person behind me make when I am shoving all in?

I take it all these are 10 handed DONs? 5 get paid. All bubble play situation where there are not any super short stacks.

I don't know much about ICM, but I think these are all good push situations. I like my fold equity and a double up just able ensures us a cash.

If there was two super shorties in each of the other hands (except AT), I fold. Hands are too marginal... give the super shorties chance to bust.

yea they are 10 handed. But #'s 2 and 3 are 7 handed, not on the bubble. if that makes a difference.

If you require the blinds, then push all in. If not, fold, it's all about survival and taking unneccessary risks are what lose it for you. Even w, A10, if your up against QJ it's still damn near a coin flip.