Originally Posted by SicKBeATz
Since when was 12k 50% of your stack? Didn't you start the hand with 80k? The only reason you would have that much in the pot is if you raised that much. And yes I believe that "nit" as you describe him, that limps with weak hands as CL will possibly call a half-pot sized value bet if he has top pair against 3hearts. Why do you think he won't, b/c you showed extreme strength with a player allin and he folded? I would of folded a weak K too if you were showing that much strength into a dry side pot with a player all in.
But here's a question, what did you accomplish by reraising? One player was allin already and you reraised an extra 10k to push out the bigstack. My question is why? Were you hoping for him to shove, call, or fold?
He's not going to reraise or even bet a weak K here as he already might think he's behind, and the other player is already allin.
I never said you were dumb or said I was a genius, but I don't agree that reraising to shut out a hand that has potential to pay you off is the right play. The other player is already all in and you're risking more chips than you need to against a bigger stack on a draw. Seat 4 with a weak K is likely to check the next two streets to you and possibly check call 15k if you make your flush which is more than the all in player started with.
Ok, letís run the numbers:
I started with $80K-ish, yes thatís true. Seat 1 had $160K and seat 4 had $11.9K.
I limp from the button for $3K after the other two players had limped as well. There is a $300 chip ante and the SB folded Ė the BB was a mega super, super, NIT woman that I didnít even put in the OP Ė she was of no concern and she check/folded the flop after checking her option.
Pot - $16,500
After the flop comes out, the Nitty like player in seat 1 leads out for $8.5K and seat 4 moves all-in for $8.9K.
I know seat 1 has me beat right now, and likely seat 4 as well. If heís not a NIT he is most certainly a straight forward player and he most certainly has me beat. After the all-in from seat 4, Iím getting about 5:1 on a call ($8.9K for $43.2K). I have 9 heart outs and 3 aces (assuming thereís no two-pair or set comboís) for a total of 12 outs; or roughly 48% to win. So by the math Ė I have to play this hand!
Option 1 - I raise because I know I can get the straight forward NIT to fold; and he does, thereby allowing me to chase 5:1 pot odds after only risking 14% of my own stack. If successful my stack will increase by almost 40% to 110K+; and all this without having to play the only player in the hand that has me covered by 2:1 and also has me beat.
Option 2 Ė I flat the $8900 all-in and Seat 1 calls the $400 to complete the betting round. The pot would then be $43.2K. A blank hits the turn and my aggressive NIT friend almost certainly bets out for $15K to $30K. This still gives me close to 5:1 pot odds; however, my hand is now closer to 5:1 to win as well. Additionally, I will then have anywhere from 34% to 52% of my stack in the middle when I miss as we now know that I will. There is a chance that seat 1 checks the turn Ė in which case I check behind Ė and still manage to lose the same amount as I did with Option 1. However, I donít believe he would have checked the turn Ė but I have been wrong before.
So by choosing Option #1 I raised the best hand out of the pot and still managed 5:1 on the pot and the chance to eliminate a player with a 2.1:1 hand. I canít take the chance against seat 1, he has a 2:1 chip lead on me and is ahead Ė if I miss (like I did) Iím ****ed! Obviously, it would be real nice if I did make my hand. Whether or not he would pay me doesnít matter as I would rather have the option of having him pay me Ė but itís just not going to work in this situation Ėthatís it!