Do you fold A hi flush with with no pairs and four to a straight flush on the board?

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rule72

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This is a $125 live MTT weekly tourney with 20 minute levels, 15k stacks and blinds start at 0/25/50. This time poor turnout so only 2 tables of 6-7 players and we are still in the first level (late entries to the end of 6th level). I have no history on the players thus far.

UTG open raises to 150 there's a caller and I have AA in the blind I raise to 350 knowing there will be no more than two callers, I'm ok with no more than two callers, both call and we see the flop 3-handed. (Pot 1075).

Flop is QcTc9c, I have the Ac. I bet 700 and have one caller the utg pre flop raiser. (pot 2475)

Turn is 8c. I have A hi flush (3rd nut) and the two hands that can beat me are the Jc or the 6c7c.

Do we worry about nuts 1 & 2 or do we just play as though we have the nuts????

I'll post more after I get a few comments.
 
mbrenneman0

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think of it this way, if you list all the possible combinations of hands that he plays this way, how many of those contain Jc and 7c6c?

do you have any information on him that could help us define his range a little better? does he seem like a solid reg, or is he a very active player?
 
Michel_11

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I wouldn't play like I was nuts, but with an almost unbeatable hand. If I play seeing ghosts imagining that my opponent always has the magic card I will not get anywhere.
 
DougPkrMonsta

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This is a $125 live MTT weekly tourney with 20 minute levels, 15k stacks and blinds start at 0/25/50. This time poor turnout so only 2 tables of 6-7 players and we are still in the first level (late entries to the end of 6th level). I have no history on the players thus far.

UTG open raises to 150 there's a caller and I have AA in the blind I raise to 350 knowing there will be no more than two callers, I'm ok with no more than two callers, both call and we see the flop 3-handed. (Pot 1075).

Flop is QcTc9c, I have the Ac. I bet 700 and have one caller the utg pre flop raiser. (pot 2475)

Turn is 8c. I have A hi flush (3rd nut) and the two hands that can beat me are the Jc or the 6c7c.

Do we worry about nuts 1 & 2 or do we just play as though we have the nuts????

I'll post more after I get a few comments.

So starting stack is 15,000 and the BB is 50 for this hand, correct?

Assuming effective stacks of 300BB I wouldn't be too thrilled getting all my chips into the pot after the turn, but to me, an under-the-gun raiser is more likely to have the Kc than the Jc or 6c7c, so I certainly wouldn't be checking the turn either.

After the pre-flop and flop betting (300 + 750) you should have about 14K left with a pot of 2,500... I would be trying to get value from the Kc (as well as other flushes, sets etc.) and not be worried about a straight flush quite yet.

I'm leading the turn for close to pot, between 2,000 and 2,500, and seeing what happens - re-evaluate if raised on turn (I'm not sure I would fold, especially if you can re-enter, tournaments are about accumulating chips). If you're not raised, see what the river brings, you can slow down and check-call (depending on sizing) if the board pairs, but otherwise value-betting big on almost every other card.

Hope this helps - good luck to you! :D
 
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fmartins123

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I think you can bet 1/2 pot and in the river you can check because you have good position, right?
 
SuzdalDEcor

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I think you must play check/fold, ofcourse KcJc (or AxJc) is quite real from UTG with 3bb raise.
 
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Two6JJ

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You don't always have to worry about being beat by a bigger hand but just the way the hand and previous action with the player will allow you be more accurate with your move in this specific situation.
 
luiaguila

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if you were afraid of a letter that you can beat the other hand you should slow play preflop you should play very strong as well those bad times are avoided and in any case no longer fold nesecitas to risk much less having large stacks
 
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Winalotapots

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I agree with
DougPkrMonsta

W/O an idea of player history, A decent value bet assuming the other plyr doesn't fold will give you some insight but no real info. Even an over the top raise doesn't translate to the SF. Either of which is more likely to slow roll and trap an impulsive move.
Don't play as if the nuts, be mindful of utg starting that would have included the Jc, and slow down if a value play is made against yours. But I don't think I'd fold to any move made that early in a tourney, Bingo is a valid early strategy for many players.
Love to hear how it worked out
 
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rule72

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I have no history on the players thus far.

I'll post more after I get a few comments.

Continuing...I lead out a 1500 bet on the turn he raised to 3k and I shoved expecting some worse hands to still call. He had JcJd.

What caused me to post is another player asked me if I didn't see the straight flush so made me curious what others might think.

Even though I had no history on this player at this tournament price there are some amazing bad calls. I've seen possible straight flushes on the board a fair number of times where just the flush wins, I've only lost one hand to a straight flush once in about 800 live tournaments.

At this point I'd probably only slow down to a pair on the board or if I didn't have the Ac.

So my thought is long term if I slowed down to a possible straight flush every time I'd be loosing value.
 
TeUnit

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think you can look at the villans stats, if they are very loose..they may have 2 clubs or a combo hand with Jc or 8c

dont think you need to stack off 300bbs deep, but i think you stab at the turn and if they shove over you may have to fold(tough without knowing anything about villans)

dont think you need to bet big because what can the villans feel comfortable shoving over with besides the nuts
 
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Reelmookey

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that alays depends on how much your staying in the hand for
 
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WillaIsAway

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I'm trying to think of all the times my A high flush has been beaten by higher flush and it's RARE.. I think I've done it ONCE to someone and never seen it again. That's in like 100,000 hands.

If someone pushed back against my bet on that turn I would suspect they thought I was bluffing, or that they had the Kc, not that they had the better flush.

I'll take the one loss in this scenario to the dozens of wins to someone who loves their KQs
 
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