Defending your BB in high blind and ante structure
I've been tossing around this idea/theory that I have, and want some input from you guys if it would be a good theory to test out, and if so, what parameters to put on it.
Basically it goes like this....I don't defend my BB very often unless I have a real hand...which is not really defending....it's just playing your good hand pretty much straightforwardly...
anyways it has occurred to me that since people tend to raise raise small, when the blinds and antes are big (usually between 2.0x and 2.5x) then with blinds and antes being so valuable, I may be making mistakes by folding my BB too often.
But I don't want to develop a leak or start bleeding chips out of my BB during a critical time of the tourney either....
So here is my idea in a nutshell....most of the time people are raising with 2 high unpaired cards.....yes sometimes they are raising with pairs but the 2 high card combos far outweigh the pair combos...so on a sheer statistical basis, with no other read it is more likely that the person raising your BB just has 2 big cards...(let's define this as any 2 cards T or higher from early and mid position and any 2 cards 9 or higher from late position).
If we just flat call the raise (guaranteed to see a flop since we have last action) then we can use our post flop skills to win a lot of heads up pots when our opponents miss.
If the flop comes raggedy and small, we lead out whether or not we hit anything.
if the flop comes with 1 big and 2 small cards we consider leading out based on board texture and player read
if the flop comes with 2 or 3 big cards we probably just check fold
if we hit the flop but have kicker problems we can pot control and bluff catch
if we smash the flop with our "big blind special" we can slow play or fast play depending on our opponent and board texture....
as you can see, the options for how to proceed on the flop are numerous and cannot all be listed here.
In the case of our opponent raising small with 2 big unpaired cards, we probably have pot odds
to call with any 2 cards...but as we know it's not all about pot odds
in a tourney due to ICM and tourney odds...so defending with A2C is gonna be a leak. But we can probably defend a lot wider than I have been.
Let's take an example of Blinds are 1,000/2,000/300 9 handed so the starting pot is 5,700 and the average stack is 55,000 and we have 57,000 in the BB so our M= exactly 10. It folds to the Hijack who has been engaged in a moderate amount of late position blind stealing, he has about 70k and has been Cbetting the flop nearly 100% of the time. Hijack raises to 4,800 Everyone else folds and you look down at T6o. What to do? Old me would have insta mucked this hand. But with my new theory....hmmmm....pot contains 10,500 and it costs us just 2,800 more to call giving us 3.75:1 pot odds.
What do you think? What is the worst hand we should defend with here?
ideas? critiques? other angles I may not have considered?