Deb's dissection of a downswing

Cliff Notes: Help! I feel like I'm losing constantly at the SnGs that I'm playing. Is this just typical variance over a small sample size or do I suck? Reality check, please.

I've been neglecting CC for little while, but not neglecting poker. I've been playing SnGs for a little while: I feel like I've been running really bad and don't know how to assess my play, since I have a short sample size of games to see how I'm playing. I'm a recreational player and don't really have a high volume of play.

I'm looking for advice about how to assess whether I'm just in a "normal" downswing or if I'm a much worse player than I think I am! Not that I think I'm great by any means, but I am serious about playing and learning:

I'm studying theory videos, reading books, reviewing stats and hands, posting histories, and really analyzing my play. I have a fairly decent, if tight, PBJ chart, I'm aware of ICM.

The frustration I feel with posting hand histories is that there is a self-selection going on because perhaps I'm not posting the right hands. I post the ones I have questions on, but there could be other spots where I should be improving but I don't realize it.

My stats over my tiny sample size are posted below. I'd love any and all suggestions for what I can do to improve my play. Is there more I should be doing? Am I over-analyzing a small sample size too much?

Review: I'm playing on Merge (BCP)
Started with a bankroll of about $550 and have been playing $11 and $5.50 turbo SnGs primarily.

Since January 1st: I've played 102 SnGs (86 over the last two months)
$11:
44 played. ITM 25%;
1st place: 9%; 2nd place: 9%; 3rd place:6%
4th & 5th:13% each
6th: 11%; 7th 2%; 8th: 18%; 9th 15%

$5.50:
58 played. ITM 32.76%;
1st place: 13%; 2nd place: 10%; 3rd place:8%
4th: 10%; 5th: 20%
6th: 5%; 7th 10%; 8th: 10%; 9th 10%

Your samples are small, but from eyeballing the info, it looks like you're almost not too far below b/e at 5.50, and a fair bit farther away at 11. This kind of begs the question as to why you're playing 11 when you aren't beating 5.50.

BRM isn't just about having enough buyins for a certain level. You build your roll (i.e. manage it so it grows) by playing where you're +EV. You can take shots at the next level up, but the bulk of your play should be where you're profitable.

Just based on what I see here, my initial reaction is that you might want to drop down to 2.20 and/or 3.30. When you've established that you can run a solid ROI there, you can always give 5.50 another shot.

Sng's - especially turbos - will rip your heart out. I wish I had quit playing them when I got to where you are now.

The % of players who profit at sng's is very small. The variance is ridiculous and you never have those big cashes you can get from tournaments to bring you back around.

I have friends who made a lot of money playing sng's - but they crushed me.

I highly recommend coaching if you are going to play those. And yea - way too soon for you to be playing $11's. You are going to run into some tough opponents at that level - the US players who can play higher have to add some of those in just to get volume.

You are both my heroes! I appreciate pointing out the obvious (that I have to stay away from games that are out of my league) and also, Debi, for sharing your frustration with the SnGs. I really am grateful for this forum!

Most likely this is mostly variance, but I immediately dropped down today, and also played two MTTs (micros). I just placed second in one of the MTTs ($50 won for a $3.30 buy-in) and have finished ITM in 5/7 of the lower stakes SnGs I played, cashed in 5/6 of the DoNs I played, and, best of all, "met" a nice player in the MTT (we were heads up) who was asking about forums. I, of course, told him about the best forum in the interwebs! His name is Chofmeister on BCP, not sure if he'll show up here or not (but hopefully he will-- very nice guy).

So it's been a much better day for poker today. Of course, being in NC with my honey for a long weekend (took today off in addition to yesterday's US holiday) and having a very nice walk on the beach, and being with the dogs just makes it all the more sweet!

Now I'm off to catch some Dr. Who (but that's for another thread...).

I really wouldn't make anything from 102 games. You can take literally nothing from your finishing distribution.

e.g. you have managed to get HU like 21 times in these games, probably <25bb deep when you get HU. I've had 300 game downswings/1500 games BE at that type of HU so when you get HU your finish distributions won't even be close to reliable with that sample size. I probs wouldn't look at distributions till I had like a few k games.

BlueNowhere said:

I really wouldn't make anything from 102 games. You can take literally nothing from your finishing distribution.

e.g. you have managed to get HU like 21 times in these games, probably <25bb deep when you get HU. I've had 300 game downswings/1500 games BE at that type of HU so when you get HU your finish distributions won't even be close to reliable with that sample size. I probs wouldn't look at distributions till I had like a few k games.

Click to expand...

What he said...back before black friday I was playing mostly cash and even I was casually playing around 200 sng's a month. I of course was an idiot and playing way beyond my means, with no real committment to any one format or level, but the point is...your sample size is far too low to look to much into. Having said that, it is good that you are thinking the way you are and analyzing your game, but again I wouldn't sweat the numbers too much with variance being as brutal as it is with sng's.