dealing with the huge variance swings in online poker

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deffcity

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as most of you guys know, this part of the online world can be pretty depressing,
I've been doing pretty decent lately, but last 12 hours have been hell, lol.
every satellite i play, tourney, I'm getting dead cards and when i do get something decent I'm out flopped, turned, rivered, things can get very frustrating, i know the only way to get past is to keep playing,

but I'm just wandering how you guys deal with it
 
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3ccasd

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likely to come down streak, I think if you're going to play like he played the distance will give a positive result
 
fadisn

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I have a feeling, on online poker like PS, the 1st winner is post decided !
Usually wins every heads up with whatever hand !
 
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Poom12

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Can't do anything about it, it's the same both in live and OL. Only thing that you gotta do is compose yourself, remember and learn from the mistakes, move on, keep on playing and grind it out.
 
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deffcity

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Fadisn . i know what u mean, but it think its more variance based, i played a 0.50 cent 45 sitNgo once, and i could not lose a hand, it got so funny i would just shove with anything and win, i ended up winning with a 4 to 1 chip lead, was quiet funny, but as u know, theres the other end where u can play 50 tourneys a day and not get lucky at all. I'm still yet to play real poker . only know online so far
 
PapaC

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Hi deffcity and welcome to Cardschat. Because of what you are going through, I have folded hands for the whole first hour, except for good starting hands, and even if I catch like AK, I'm being real careful with it too, and I'm not going to be forced to all ins with that hand. I can't count the times I've folded that hand and ones like it when I know I'm card dead, and I've seen many times it was a good fold. Sometimes you think you will never catch a hand, but you will. It takes a lot of patience. You can't make the cards come to you, and sometimes you just want to get in there and make something happen. I've been there and a lot of the time I catch 2nd best which cost me a lot of my stack or all of it. Just be careful when you are card dead. GL to you
 
diablo8

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Players go through this often. I think if you keep playing it may continue to be negative. I would suggest on taking a break, regroup and once you feel you’re ready, jump back on the felt. Good luck.
 
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paulsmall007

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Gotta learn to balance ur tilt and just be patient and realize that's just poker sometimes. Even a pocket pair is just a pair
 
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deffcity

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Hi deffcity and welcome to Cardschat. Because of what you are going through, I have folded hands for the whole first hour, except for good starting hands, and even if I catch like AK, I'm being real careful with it too, and I'm not going to be forced to all ins with that hand. I can't count the times I've folded that hand and ones like it when I know I'm card dead, and I've seen many times it was a good fold. Sometimes you think you will never catch a hand, but you will. It takes a lot of patience. You can't make the cards come to you, and sometimes you just want to get in there and make something happen. I've been there and a lot of the time I catch 2nd best which cost me a lot of my stack or all of it. Just be careful when you are card dead. GL to you

thanks c. yea i think I'm gonna take a break, its starting to make me doubt my game, last 3 days have just been terrible, kk busted by random 2 pairs, sets busted by runner 4 card flushes, flushes busted by river boats, just not happening, I'm playing my first live tournament next week, seeing how that goes i might just give up playing online, just seems to be a lottery game
 
Dorugremon

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as most of you guys know, this part of the online world can be pretty depressing,
I've been doing pretty decent lately, but last 12 hours have been hell, lol... but I'm just wandering how you guys deal with it

You're complaining about 12 hours? Hell, try a whole damn month! May sucked for me. Go all-in with the best and get outrun. Jam flop with black aces, get called by red jacks, and runner, runner hearts gives him the pot. Call AI from absolute maniac with pocket threes, he has something like J7-o, lead the whole way, and he rivers a 7. He does it again with Q2-o, call him with AT-s, lead the whole way, and he rivers a queen. Shit like that, and I'm down 10BI's.

The only thing to do is play through the runbad. I don't let it get to me because I knew I got it in good. Made it all back and more over the next two weeks. You just have to wait out Vera Variance (Lady Luck's uglier, meaner sister) until she decides to go torment some other poor SoB. You play better than the fishies, you win eventually. Maybe not soon enough to suit you, but you will win as certainly as the roulette wheel will win for the house.
 
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deffcity

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You're complaining about 12 hours? Hell, try a whole damn month! May sucked for me. Go all-in with the best and get outrun. Jam flop with black aces, get called by red jacks, and runner, runner hearts gives him the pot. Call AI from absolute maniac with pocket threes, he has something like J7-o, lead the whole way, and he rivers a 7. He does it again with Q2-o, call him with AT-s, lead the whole way, and he rivers a queen. Shit like that, and I'm down 10BI's.

The only thing to do is play through the runbad. I don't let it get to me because I knew I got it in good. Made it all back and more over the next two weeks. You just have to wait out Vera Variance (Lady Luck's uglier, meaner sister) until she decides to go torment some other poor SoB. You play better than the fishies, you win eventually. Maybe not soon enough to suit you, but you will win as certainly as the Roulette wheel will win for the house.


. i salute u for ur patience, i honestly don't know if i can deal with this for a month, lol.. last hand i played went like this..

20 mins into the tourney, signed up, late reg, few hands in, a4 clubs.
small raise, 1 player calls, flop is 464, other guy bet, i called, check check on turn, rivered ace, so now i got 4s full, ... I'm good right? all in... nope... he's holding pocket sixes. just to rub salt to the wound . lol.. almost smashed mac into a thousand pieces, had to go for a walk
 
SBEP

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BRM will help with dry patches, if u have a good bank roll management ull do fine, and wont be upset that much at dry patches, when u get card dead, i always play 1/100 of my BR, its a slow progress but also cuts down your loses to a minimum, so take care of your BR and your BR will take care of you :D
 
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deffcity

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BRM will help with dry patches, if u have a good bank roll management ull do fine, and wont be upset that much at dry patches, when u get card dead, i always play 1/100 of my BR, its a slow progress but also cuts down your loses to a minimum, so take care of your BR and your BR will take care of you :D

well i built $30 to £290 in a week, but went broke last 3 days. lol.. before i make another deposit tho I'm gonna take a days break. i honestly would rather deposit enough so i don't have to play micros, the amount of fish just shoving with anything is incredible, and I'm not intending to offend any one, but its mainly Brazilians lol.
 
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Easiest and hardest way is to not look at short term results. Try it for a week of you look at results you have to send 5 dollars to a random player. I did this years ago and it was really hard to do. But once you get out of the habit of looking at your bank balance or results it really frees you up to be able to do what you need too. Which is give the next poker hand you have %107.656 of your effort.


In regards to handling bad beats everyone is differant here. But i found the main thing that helped me was to enjoy the times i lucked out on a player after a fee thousand games you tend to develop a thick skin as it happens so often.

Other things that helped me was a pre tournament routine in which i basically prepared my mind to the realization that even if i play perfectly i could still lose a ton of $$ on this session.

Lastly i tried to avoid playing when i was tired. Evrrytime i loaded games tired i would tilt and play like garbage. So i would nap for 30 mins pre me loading games helped a ton.


Oh and sorry to spam this. But when you say you are card dead its a big red light saying that you are likely playing too tight and missing spots. The other red light is the fact you mention you are always getting lucked out on. If you are too tight you will notice the beats way more and you will rarely of ever bad beat someone else which as a good player you need to be doing a certain amount.
 
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BluffMeAllIn

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I'v tried the naps pre play before and the planned 1 hour turns into 4 hours :rofl:
 
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Sadalmelik

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as most of you guys know, this part of the online world can be pretty depressing,
I've been doing pretty decent lately, but last 12 hours have been hell, lol.
every satellite i play, tourney, I'm getting dead cards and when i do get something decent I'm out flopped, turned, rivered, things can get very frustrating, i know the only way to get past is to keep playing,

but I'm just wandering how you guys deal with it

man that is not huge variance. currently i am in 150$ downswing over 4 days, playing 2.20$ 4.40$ and rarely 7.50$, in which i even don't need to loose all, since i play timed tournaments... but i can't say anything, since i am in huge plus this month.
only advice - have 100 BB or entrances in your bank, and u will eventually overcome bad period.
 
PapaC

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well i built $30 to £290 in a week, but went broke last 3 days. lol.. before i make another deposit tho I'm gonna take a days break. i honestly would rather deposit enough so i don't have to play micros, the amount of fish just shoving with anything is incredible, and I'm not intending to offend any one, but its mainly Brazilians lol.

Does not matter how much you deposit. You are going to have downswings, and you are going to find those same players there too. You can ask anyone here, if you can't beat micros you can't beat players at a higher level. And I see it all the time about players shoving with any 2 cards and winning the hand with crap. Well where I play I don't see that much, but I do see 3 and 4 bets which are just as good as all ins. Either you are going to move a player, or they are going to call no matter what you bet. I'm at 10nl which is good for me. I could go up a level but I don't have the experience. This is only my opinion. GL to you
 
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. i salute u for ur patience, i honestly don't know if i can deal with this for a month, lol.. last hand i played went like this..

20 mins into the tourney, signed up, late reg, few hands in, a4 clubs.
small raise, 1 player calls, flop is 464, other guy bet, i called, check check on turn, rivered ace, so now i got 4s full, ... I'm good right? all in... nope... he's holding pocket sixes. just to rub salt to the wound . lol.. almost smashed mac into a thousand pieces, had to go for a walk

A4 losing to 66 is NOT variance. The hand you described you got outplayed.
 
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deffcity

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A4 losing to 66 is NOT variance. The hand you described you got outplayed.

that was just the last hand i played, i was just annoyed that the board would hit the ace on the river to give me the boat, it was hard putting him on picket 6's when i haven't been able to catch a good hand and even the boat wasn't good enough lol.


@WiZZiM
sometimes i do play too tight but not often, I'm still new to the game so i do experiment and try different things, but the last 3 or 4 days, nothing has worked, speculative hands early on, pocket pairs, sets, flushes, full house, i always seem to catch the short stick . i fully understand this is just short term is it comes and goes, and i am over $1500 in profit over all, i just have a bad time dealing with days of getting screwed lol
 
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deffcity

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well i built $30 to £290 in a week, but went broke last 3 days. lol.. before i make another deposit tho I'm gonna take a days break. i honestly would rather deposit enough so i don't have to play micros, the amount of fish just shoving with anything is incredible, and I'm not intending to offend any one, but its mainly Brazilians lol.

Does not matter how much you deposit. You are going to have downswings, and you are going to find those same players there too. You can ask anyone here, if you can't beat micros you can't beat players at a higher level. And I see it all the time about players shoving with any 2 cards and winning the hand with crap. Well where I play I don't see that much, but I do see 3 and 4 bets which are just as good as all ins. Either you are going to move a player, or they are going to call no matter what you bet. I'm at 10nl which is good for me. I could go up a level but I don't have the experience. This is only my opinion. GL to you

i think i need to work on my patience to be honest, I've always been impatient but in poker i realise thats suicide
 
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deffcity

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I'v tried the naps pre play before and the planned 1 hour turns into 4 hours :rofl:

yea when i nap i go for half a day

but playing tired is a no no. so many times very deep in the tourney . I've fallen asleep, like last 30 or lower from a few thousand, the anger is unreal. lol.
 
naitutreaba

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be patient man...you will see the results!!!
 
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If you want some honest advice on where to look to improve, I'd say you can find it in one player, Lucky Chewy. Maybe even Tom Marchese most of the time. You used to be able to say that Negreanu helped "champion" the notion of small ball/pot control to control variance, but he has obviously adjusted his strategy, generally speaking, in recent years.

So back to Chewy. Watch his win at WPT Alpha 8 Las Vegas. Luckily for you, he was on the feature table most of the time through to the final table (after his initial bust out). He always opted for the lower variance route of check/calling rather than leading out, check/raising, and other pot building options. He balanced his range beautifully by doing this when he seemed to believe he had the best of it as well as when he seemed to think he needed to improve. If you watch the entire footage, he did this with the stone cold nuts and he did it needing a gutshot, a pretty wide range.

(Caveat and spoiler alert: He also did this with 35 fh vs Rast's A5 fh and doubled him up one of the few times that the pot got out of his control)

So if you can emulate this style, you should be able to reduce your variance and avoid getting trapped (or even sucked out on) in huge pots. Granted, he was playing a high roller deep stacked live tourney vs the best of the best. But, if you can avoid the minefield of shove-happy donkeyfest online and focus on limiting your risk as best you can, you'll probably find it much more enjoyable. If the cards don't come for you like they did for Chewy you may still feel a sting. But with this adjustment in your approach the sting might only be about 25% as bad as it would have been previously.

My $0.02, and not surprisingly, advice I never intend to follow myself. I prefer the high variance route because in tournaments I shoot for 1st, in ring games I shoot to STACK my opponents, and overall I balance my range through aggression to keep them guessing and maximizing my value when I need/want to get paid off.
 
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What works for me is taking some time off and allow those beats to fade away. If you keep playing those beats and coolers just piggy back on top of each other.
 
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maxdavis4321

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What works for me is taking some time off and allow those beats to fade away. If you keep playing those beats and coolers just piggy back on top of each other.

Coming back and dropping stakes and allowing confidence to build back up before playing my regular stakes pays off huge.
 
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