Costly Mistake or Not?

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ssbn743

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My local casino has started a locally run tournament called the CPC (Colorado Poker Classic) that has a $1K buy-in main event at the end of a standard two week period. This past Saturday they held a $400 deep stack event with 30 minute levels and $35K to start – also we had the wsop Circuit structure, which is something that we usually don’t.

Now these events, particularly the higher buy-in events, always attract players that shouldn’t be there – and that’s good, dead money is awesome. At my table I was seated in seat #5, in seat #6 was an older woman (50-60) that had a T-shirt on with the phrase “I don’t care what the f$%^ you folded!” printed on the back. Now, who cares, normally, but it was just so funny because after every hand she would tell everyone, “I folded two pair” or “I folded the winner”, “Damn it, I folded the flush”; it was pretty funny. Plus, she had all the poker gear with the WSOP hat and sunglasses and new all the terminology even though it was blatantly apparent to anyone with any real experience that she didn’t understand what she was talking about!

Anyway, she was an active player and was certainly not a rock; but she was also position ignorant. For example, when she was dealt a hand in her playable range, that is to say any pocket pair and J 10 plus (maybe worse), she would raise or 3-bet regardless of position and would always size her bets very poorly; it was always exactly 3x pre-flop and 3-bets were barely legal raises. In a way I knew exactly what she was thinking because her game reminded me a great deal of my own game and thought process when I was just getting serious about poker nearly a decade ago.

She continued to play half-way aggressively for several hours and had amassed about $40K; my stack was about $60K when the following two hands take place in succession. Blinds were $400/$800/$100.

Hand #1

I was in the SB and the lady of concern was immediately to my left in the BB. The MP 1 player open raised the pot to $2,100 and got one other caller from MP as well; the button folded. I was watching out of the corner of my eye and saw the BB reaching for the exact amount of chips to make the call – I knew she was going to call – so I flat called as well with :8h4: :8d4: Not that I was going to fold here anyway – this is a pretty standard spot to set mine with or without her call; right?

Pot: $9,400

Flop: :qh4: :8c4: :7c4:

Again, I saw my opponent reaching for chips to bet and it was clear that it was not a ploy. I very calmly moved my fingers, indicating a check and she bet $4K before my fingers were done moving. Both of the MP players folded very quickly and it was left to me.

When I checked initially, I had done so with every intention of check raising, however, when the two middle position players dismissed themselves from the pot I thought better of that line and flat called the $4K. Now I don’t know if this is good thinking or not, but I knew she wasn’t on the come and probably just had a Queen, hell hopefully she made two-pair but I knew it wasn’t any stronger than that – plus her physical actions at the table were very blunt and stern, I don’t know how else to describe but she all but told me she had a Queen.

Pot: $17,400

Turn:

:9c4:

Since I have already started down the passive line and really wasn’t concerned with “on the come” hands and also because my opponent was itching to bet, again, I checked. She bet $6k in similar fashion, and again, I flat called.

Pot: $29,400

River:

:ad4:

Again, she was practically betting out of turn, so I checked again. Now this is a point in this hand that I don’t like since when I checked I didn’t really know why I did it and had no plan whatsoever. I kind of just checked by feel due to her blatant actions; I guess they kind of threw me off. She bet $10K.

I wanted to C/R all in at that point, but again, I didn’t come up with that plan before I checked and I’m a little angry at myself for that. Any of the straight or flush possibilities that beat me would have had to have been played on the come and I didn’t think she was capable of that. The only way I’m beat here is if she flopped a set of queens or made a set of aces; neither of which are really possible because I’m near certain she would have 3-bet pre flop with those hands – basically, I think I’m good here!

Yet, I decided that I was only getting called by better and elected to flat call the $10K on the river.

My opponent shows :ah4: :qc4: and I took it down with a tongue lashing for “check, check, checking all the way”. Again, she has obviously seen “Rounder’s” – not the she understands anything in the movie, but she has seen it.

So that left her steaming and me too a little because after I saw the AQ I immediately thought I may have missed value. If I had C/R the river there is a good chance she puts it in - Shit! Yet there are lots of hands in her range that she doesn’t put it in with too, KQ for example.

Hand #2

The very next hand, I now had about $80K and the woman had about $20K. This time there was an UTG +1 limp and a MP raise to $2K. Yet again, I saw my opponent reaching for calling chips. From the button I found :7c4: :7s4: and flat called the $2K. Then the woman in the small blind surprises everyone, me included, and moved all-in, clearly on tilt and still steaming. Both the EP and MP players tanked for a little while but finally folded and I snap called. She showed :qc4: :jh4:

Flop:

:qh4: :8c4: :6d4:

I don’t remember the other cards, but I know that she won all her chips back plus some. So when I go back to hand #1 and the value I may have cost myself I just cringe.

Was it a mistake?

It didn’t really matter too much, we were still pretty early into the tournament and I ended up playing for another 5 hours before busting in 40/145 with 18 spots paid. She got busted about two hours after these hands took place, but that was after she decided to call all-in to a four way all-in pot with equal stack sizes with a :kd4: :jd4: and chop half of that pot – it was pretty funny, and then she even tried to justify her “good” play – but that’s a whole other story.

So, I like the way these hands went down. On hand #2, I took what I knew to be a flip for less than 50% of my stack and just lost a flip – but I would do it again and again so the question is really about Hand #1. Was there any value to C/R the river? Or did I play it fine.
 
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DunningKruger

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You're certainly not folding 88 there pre. You're often 3betting it though. I guess it depends on a few factors not mentioned in your post. As played I would have to say you definitely missed value with effective stacks that size after flopping a set (in a pot you weren't otherwise winning playing 88 oop 4 ways) vs top top that becomes top 2. I'm inclined to make the check/raise otf - especially if I know her to make those weak 1/3 bets (which ended up saving her skin) - and I'd probably expect most of her Qx hands to call it.

Rvier play is interesting. If you knew she wasn't drawing otf and that AA/QQ reraise pre, why not raise her small river bet? Also wondering if you expected her to bet KQ/QJ otr.
 
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calling station

My local casino has started a locally run tournament called the CPC (Colorado Poker Classic) that has a $1K buy-in main event at the end of a standard two week period. This past Saturday they held a $400 deep stack event with 30 minute levels and $35K to start – also we had the WSOP Circuit structure, which is something that we usually don’t.

Now these events, particularly the higher buy-in events, always attract players that shouldn’t be there – and that’s good, dead money is awesome. At my table I was seated in seat #5, in seat #6 was an older woman (50-60) that had a T-shirt on with the phrase “I don’t care what the f$%^ you folded!” printed on the back. Now, who cares, normally, but it was just so funny because after every hand she would tell everyone, “I folded two pair” or “I folded the winner”, “Damn it, I folded the flush”; it was pretty funny. Plus, she had all the poker gear with the WSOP hat and sunglasses and new all the terminology even though it was blatantly apparent to anyone with any real experience that she didn’t understand what she was talking about!

Anyway, she was an active player and was certainly not a rock; but she was also position ignorant. For example, when she was dealt a hand in her playable range, that is to say any pocket pair and J 10 plus (maybe worse), she would raise or 3-bet regardless of position and would always size her bets very poorly; it was always exactly 3x pre-flop and 3-bets were barely legal raises. In a way I knew exactly what she was thinking because her game reminded me a great deal of my own game and thought process when I was just getting serious about poker nearly a decade ago.

She continued to play half-way aggressively for several hours and had amassed about $40K; my stack was about $60K when the following two hands take place in succession. Blinds were $400/$800/$100.

Hand #1

I was in the SB and the lady of concern was immediately to my left in the BB. The MP 1 player open raised the pot to $2,100 and got one other caller from MP as well; the button folded. I was watching out of the corner of my eye and saw the BB reaching for the exact amount of chips to make the call – I knew she was going to call – so I flat called as well with :8h4: :8d4: Not that I was going to fold here anyway – this is a pretty standard spot to set mine with or without her call; right?

Pot: $9,400

Flop: :qh4: :8c4: :7c4:

Again, I saw my opponent reaching for chips to bet and it was clear that it was not a ploy. I very calmly moved my fingers, indicating a check and she bet $4K before my fingers were done moving. Both of the MP players folded very quickly and it was left to me.

When I checked initially, I had done so with every intention of check raising, however, when the two middle position players dismissed themselves from the pot I thought better of that line and flat called the $4K. Now I don’t know if this is good thinking or not, but I knew she wasn’t on the come and probably just had a Queen, hell hopefully she made two-pair but I knew it wasn’t any stronger than that – plus her physical actions at the table were very blunt and stern, I don’t know how else to describe but she all but told me she had a Queen.

Pot: $17,400

Turn:

:9c4:

Since I have already started down the passive line and really wasn’t concerned with “on the come” hands and also because my opponent was itching to bet, again, I checked. She bet $6k in similar fashion, and again, I flat called.

Pot: $29,400

River:

:ad4:

Again, she was practically betting out of turn, so I checked again. Now this is a point in this hand that I don’t like since when I checked I didn’t really know why I did it and had no plan whatsoever. I kind of just checked by feel due to her blatant actions; I guess they kind of threw me off. She bet $10K.

I wanted to C/R all in at that point, but again, I didn’t come up with that plan before I checked and I’m a little angry at myself for that. Any of the straight or flush possibilities that beat me would have had to have been played on the come and I didn’t think she was capable of that. The only way I’m beat here is if she flopped a set of queens or made a set of aces; neither of which are really possible because I’m near certain she would have 3-bet pre flop with those hands – basically, I think I’m good here!

Yet, I decided that I was only getting called by better and elected to flat call the $10K on the river.

My opponent shows :ah4: :qc4: and I took it down with a tongue lashing for “check, check, checking all the way”. Again, she has obviously seen “Rounder’s” – not the she understands anything in the movie, but she has seen it.

So that left her steaming and me too a little because after I saw the AQ I immediately thought I may have missed value. If I had C/R the river there is a good chance she puts it in - Shit! Yet there are lots of hands in her range that she doesn’t put it in with too, KQ for example.

Hand #2

The very next hand, I now had about $80K and the woman had about $20K. This time there was an UTG +1 limp and a MP raise to $2K. Yet again, I saw my opponent reaching for calling chips. From the button I found :7c4: :7s4: and flat called the $2K. Then the woman in the small blind surprises everyone, me included, and moved all-in, clearly on tilt and still steaming. Both the EP and MP players tanked for a little while but finally folded and I snap called. She showed :qc4: :jh4:

Flop:

:qh4: :8c4: :6d4:

I don’t remember the other cards, but I know that she won all her chips back plus some. So when I go back to hand #1 and the value I may have cost myself I just cringe.

Was it a mistake?

It didn’t really matter too much, we were still pretty early into the tournament and I ended up playing for another 5 hours before busting in 40/145 with 18 spots paid. She got busted about two hours after these hands took place, but that was after she decided to call all-in to a four way all-in pot with equal stack sizes with a :kd4: :jd4: and chop half of that pot – it was pretty funny, and then she even tried to justify her “good” play – but that’s a whole other story.

So, I like the way these hands went down. On hand #2, I took what I knew to be a flip for less than 50% of my stack and just lost a flip – but I would do it again and again so the question is really about Hand #1. Was there any value to C/R the river? Or did I play it fine.


friend, really funny lady, but what happened to you have happened to every poker player, you don´t finish your work in a hand an the next the villain takes you chips for not being eliminated before, and i don´t know how you didn´t tilt after hand 2,

now, hand 1, certainly you sholld raise after the flop, and if she paid, you should not let her see the river without all the chips in the center,

just imagine she was looking for the flush or the straight, and then after those very conservative checks, you should raise in showdown, because otherwise you are not sure of your set (and as you stated she was a loose aggressive), but if you calculate the number of hands in a very wet board, itwas like 50-50 so maybe it wasn´t so bad to check at the end

her range:

losing hands:
AQ (3Ax3Q= 4 options)
KQ (4Kx3Q= 6 options)
QJ (4Jx3Q= 6 options)
77 (3 options)

14 losing options

then you said she didn´t raise, so we can erase, AA, KK, QQ, AK

99 i erase it too, because she should go easier with the Q in flop (the set was completed in the turn)

winning hands:

a flush (let´s put 4 options here), and straight (JT = 10 options)

total: 14 winning options

it looks like 50-50 after all, so maybe you were lucky,
 
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Hand 1 - it's a tough call. She's throwing out a half-pot raise in an early-ish position. To me that says "I'm on a flush draw, want to see it?" But that's only if the player knows what she's doing. If she doesn't really know what she's doing and she's very excited to get chips in, that tells me top pair high kicker. It's easy to see the misplay from here, but in the moment once that flush hit the board I'd be looking to see a show down for value.

Look at it this way - if you had C-R on the river she would probably have fired back over the top, maybe even shoved. She has 2-pair, A-A Q-Q, and she's an aggro player - she probably would have fired over the top. Then what? Then you're making a hero call against the flush.

You probably got maximum value by letting her take the betting lead to be honest.
 
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Hand 2 - snap call. No bad play there. Clearly tilted, wide hand range, chance to eliminate an annoyingly aggressive player on your left.
 
Arjonius

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I think I prefer leading out on the flop. Were you able to see how much she was going to bet or had she shown a tendency to bet on the small side relative to the pot? If so, since I know she's going to bet, she's unlikely to fold if I open, and I'll bet more than she would if I check. If one of the others has a flush draw, he won't be priced out to call behind her, and I won't be able to check-raise. But if I check and she bets small, a flush draw won't be priced out anyway, at least not by much. And if I then CR, the most likely scenario is that they both fold. I win a decent pot but lose the chance to win a big one.

If they missed the flop and will fold whether I bet or check and let her bet, I might as well build the pot larger by betting than by check-calling. Like you, I'm not check-raising if they fold. What can she have that she'd call with? Not much if anything, so I don't want her to fold.

Similarly, I'd guess you can get a little more value by betting the turn. Since she bet after you checked your possible flush, it seems likely she'd also call a smallish bet, maybe a bit more than the 6k she bet.

The river may be more questionable. Do you think you look significantly stronger to her when you lead three streets vs betting the flop and turn then checking the river? Is there anything in her range that will value bet if I check but fold if I bet smallish like her actual 10k? Probably not much if anything, so I may as well bet. If she folds, there's a good chance she would have checked behind if I had checked.

Leading all three streets doesn't give you the chance to CR her all in on the river, but you only lose value when she would call. It doesn't seem certain she would even after rivering top two.
 
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I think I prefer leading out on the flop. Were you able to see how much she was going to bet or had she shown a tendency to bet on the small side relative to the pot? If so, since I know she's going to bet, she's unlikely to fold if I open, and I'll bet more than she would if I check. If one of the others has a flush draw, he won't be priced out to call behind her, and I won't be able to check-raise. But if I check and she bets small, a flush draw won't be priced out anyway, at least not by much. And if I then CR, the most likely scenario is that they both fold. I win a decent pot but lose the chance to win a big one.

If they missed the flop and will fold whether I bet or check and let her bet, I might as well build the pot larger by betting than by check-calling. Like you, I'm not check-raising if they fold. What can she have that she'd call with? Not much if anything, so I don't want her to fold.

Similarly, I'd guess you can get a little more value by betting the turn. Since she bet after you checked your possible flush, it seems likely she'd also call a smallish bet, maybe a bit more than the 6k she bet.

The river may be more questionable. Do you think you look significantly stronger to her when you lead three streets vs betting the flop and turn then checking the river? Is there anything in her range that will value bet if I check but fold if I bet smallish like her actual 10k? Probably not much if anything, so I may as well bet. If she folds, there's a good chance she would have checked behind if I had checked.

Leading all three streets doesn't give you the chance to CR her all in on the river, but you only lose value when she would call. It doesn't seem certain she would even after rivering top two.

Reading this I actually like the lead out on the flop. If you can push a little more money into the pot you could still opt to give up the betting lead and let her bet on the turn and get more value for less risk.
 
duggs

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c/r flop, or turn. probably c/r river small aswell.
 
dresturn2

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if you know she was that eager in first hand you should have pounced cause if she was visibly that excited about her hand then there is now way she folds and as it played the snap call with 77 on the 2nd hand wasnt bad, you just lost a race sir.
 
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ssbn743

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I think I prefer leading out on the flop. Were you able to see how much she was going to bet or had she shown a tendency to bet on the small side relative to the pot? If so, since I know she's going to bet, she's unlikely to fold if I open, and I'll bet more than she would if I check. If one of the others has a flush draw, he won't be priced out to call behind her, and I won't be able to check-raise. But if I check and she bets small, a flush draw won't be priced out anyway, at least not by much. And if I then CR, the most likely scenario is that they both fold. I win a decent pot but lose the chance to win a big one.

If they missed the flop and will fold whether I bet or check and let her bet, I might as well build the pot larger by betting than by check-calling. Like you, I'm not check-raising if they fold. What can she have that she'd call with? Not much if anything, so I don't want her to fold.

Similarly, I'd guess you can get a little more value by betting the turn. Since she bet after you checked your possible flush, it seems likely she'd also call a smallish bet, maybe a bit more than the 6k she bet.

The river may be more questionable. Do you think you look significantly stronger to her when you lead three streets vs betting the flop and turn then checking the river? Is there anything in her range that will value bet if I check but fold if I bet smallish like her actual 10k? Probably not much if anything, so I may as well bet. If she folds, there's a good chance she would have checked behind if I had checked.

Leading all three streets doesn't give you the chance to CR her all in on the river, but you only lose value when she would call. It doesn't seem certain she would even after rivering top two.

I definitely see some merit to leading the flop here and I was going to; I usually do in these types of situations. But when I saw her reaching for chips, and knew it wasn’t a ploy to earn a check from me, I figured I’d let her take the lead on this one.

One of my all-time favorite poker quotes is from Mike Caro, “It’s rarely advantageous to bet if your opponent will do it for you.” Now, flopping a set OOP on a well-connected board is probably the “rarely” he was referring to, so maybe I should have taken that road.

The problem was that she kept getting dealt hands like AJ, and KQ and when they wouldn’t connect with the flop she would flip them over as she folded and start bitching; “never do they hit when I have them” type stuff. Plus her physical actions were very easy to read; she decided what she was going to bet and how much before it was even her turn, she leaned forward in her chair and every time she bet she did so with a “just fold, I’ve got this one” attitude – “God, I can’t believe you’re calling me”. With a set here, she’s basically drawing dead and that’s the main reason I choose the passive line and let her keep pumping the pot. If one of the other two players call her flop bet, I C/R 100%.

But if I lead out like you suggest she likely calls and the :9c4: on the turn kills my action. Maybe not, who knows, and maybe she would have raised my flop bet too – I still prefer the C/R plan here, but I could go with leading as well.

Now I don’t know if I missed value or not, but I think I did. I would have folded aces up to a river C/R but she’s not thinking like I am and that’s my main dilemma. Instead I took the conservative route and just thought I may have missed some value. I think a min C/R, or a C/R all-in would have both been paid by this player – I mean she has two-pair – and that may well be un-foldable to her.

Either way, I get her entire stack in two hands over 50% of the time, so I guess it doesn’t really matter too much anyway.
 
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DunningKruger

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One of my all-time favorite poker quotes is from Mike Caro, “It’s rarely advantageous to bet if your opponent will do it for you.” Now, flopping a set OOP on a well-connected board is probably the “rarely” he was referring to, so maybe I should have taken that road.

No, you and Mike Caro both have it right in this instance. If you know for sure the player immediately behind you is going to bet then let her donk into the preflop raiser (with the intention of raising). Leading however is probably better than check/calling. Being out of position the plan should have been to take the betting initiative here at some point since we can't rely on this woman to get her 40k in by herself with the bet sizing she uses.
 
Arjonius

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Either way, I get her entire stack in two hands over 50% of the time, so I guess it doesn’t really matter too much anyway.
I think it does matter. The more chips you get from her on the first hand, the more you reduce her play options on subsequent hands. Plus at that time, you can't be sure you'll find yourself in another situation where you have a good chance to get her chips. And even if that does happen, if you've gotten enough of her chips, she won't be able to bust you.
 
ChipEaterMan

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I have made more costly mistakes than that when I started playing poker
 
JusSumguy

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This OP needs to be stickied, and labeled "why we don't limp"

Not only can it bite you right now, but it can cost you in future hands.

-
 
duggs

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lol who limped in this hand?
 
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hawtshawt420

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I don't understand your flat call on river. You set the whole story up as knowing she wasn't capable of beating trips. And her aggression with hands weaker than your 888 is ok by me. The only reason I could see flatten the river is to see what sort of hand she would have. You seemed like you already knew that information. Seemed like she'd be paying you off even if the ace didn't come right?
 
duggs

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lol flatting isn't limping, flatting is calling a raise, limping is calling the blinds
 
el_magiciann

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I think you do played your second hand much more worse that the first one, and its obvious mistake to call all in for 1/4 of your stack to just 77 pair, of course she isn't good player and she is on tilt but its not the right move to call with only 7's pair. The first hand though I prefer re raising the flop then re raising the river maybe too, something more if u had a tell on her to have nothing more than pair Q at the flop and you knowing that she wont fold her hand its much better re raising her with nothing less than 11k so she probably goes all in and there are no problems the other hand... :) That's what my opinion is.
 
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Over 24 BB on a flip with pair 7's is a mistake that's what I think. You should pick your spot careful in that type of tournaments when u play more than 6 hours you should avoid all this flips when it is possible..
 
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1st hand - 3bet pre but as played check raise flop, you had a nice read that she hit so go with your gut and go for max value, then ugly turn but no turning back put it in!

2nd hand - fold.
 
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1st hand - assuming she calls your flop check raise it's such an ugly turn but you've got to lead i think with the intention of snap calling a shove. it's ugly i know because of J10c and similar being a big part of the active fish range but so is exactly what she had AQ 1club and similar. your money should be in on flop or turn imo. missed value. worst case scenario you still have equity to fh.
 
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A limp is a limp. Call it what you want.-

Yeah, I don’t understand what’s going on here either – I didn’t limp, I called a raise both times. On hand #1 I don’t think there’s much argument here, I’m not going to 3-bet OOP into an EP raise and an EP call with 88; I guess you can call me a rock! On hand #2 you can certainly make a case for 3-betting from the button with 77 – but neither one was a limp! Did you read the OP?

I think it does matter. The more chips you get from her on the first hand, the more you reduce her play options on subsequent hands. Plus at that time, you can't be sure you'll find yourself in another situation where you have a good chance to get her chips. And even if that does happen, if you've gotten enough of her chips, she won't be able to bust you.

No – I completely agree and that statement is all in hindsight now knowing exactly how these two hands played out. I was just saying that my money went in ahead both times so this whole post should have been a moot point and would be over 50% of the time. But make no mistake it does matter, every hand matters regardless of what happens before or after.

I don't understand your flat call on river. You set the whole story up as knowing she wasn't capable of beating trips. And her aggression with hands weaker than your 888 is ok by me. The only reason I could see flatten the river is to see what sort of hand she would have. You seemed like you already knew that information. Seemed like she'd be paying you off even if the ace didn't come right?

Quite simply, I talked myself into playing it safe thinking that a 3-bet would only be called by a hand that beats a set – and that may still be true, I don’t really know. I thought I had her range nailed and was right as it turned out but I didn’t have the balls to follow through with it I guess.

Over 24 BB on a flip with pair 7's is a mistake that's what I think. You should pick your spot careful in that type of tournaments when u play more than 6 hours you should avoid all this flips when it is possible..

1st hand - 3bet pre but as played check raise flop, you had a nice read that she hit so go with your gut and go for max value, then ugly turn but no turning back put it in!
2nd hand - fold.

I’m going to quote something I have seen Duggs say many times:

“We should never be afraid to flip for less than 50% of our stack.”

I think her all in was $19.5K total, if memory serves, and I had $80K. I knew we were flipping, I would have bet a million dollars on it (though it would have been a great play on her part if she did pick up a hand there) and I took the flip for 25% of my stack – I’ll do that every time!
 
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