Coolers in tournaments

So I make the right call almost every time in tournaments, but I usually get knocked out right at the end by stupid coolers.

How do you avoid this happening?

Poker coolers are common. It seems to us that this happens very often due to the fact that we feel failure 2 times stronger than success. To verify this, record all cases all in, and analyze your chances of winning. To avoid coolers, you can only reach the showdown with nuts, but this is not profitable.

As you go deeper in tournaments, preflop hand strength goes up, so as people play better and better hands, the chances of strong vs strong go up. Try to tighten your play a little more at the end. Other than that, you just can't really fold certain hands in certain spots so losing with AA v KK or set over set is just something that happens.

Build a big enough stack that you can survive being a cooler or two.

smallfrie said:

Build a big enough stack that you can survive being a cooler or two.

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This really is about the only thing you can do. You WILL get cooled and have bad beats sooner or later. If you can manage to build a stack, then you can survive anything thrown at you, for a limited time of course.

Unless I have the nuts, I have estimated that the "optimum" risk on a hand should be about 67% of your stack. If you play AA only, with an 84% chance of winning, you might find that this level of risk yields the biggest stack at the end or 25 hands. In other words, if you get to showdown 25 times with AA, and you risk 67% of your stack each time and get called, you will have the biggest stack using a 67% stack risk. You might think all-in is the best result, but all you have to do is lose one time with AA and you have zero chips and you can't get them back. Saving 33% of your chips always gives you enough to recover if you are winning 84% of the time.

No player will let YOU determine how much of your stack you want to risk, but this is the optimum number, in my opinion.

Good luck.

NWPatriot said:

This really is about the only thing you can do. You WILL get cooled and have bad beats sooner or later. If you can manage to build a stack, then you can survive anything thrown at you, for a limited time of course.

Unless I have the nuts, I have estimated that the "optimum" risk on a hand should be about 67% of your stack. If you play AA only, with an 84% chance of winning, you might find that this level of risk yields the biggest stack at the end or 25 hands. In other words, if you get to showdown 25 times with AA, and you risk 67% of your stack each time and get called, you will have the biggest stack using a 67% stack risk. You might think all-in is the best result, but all you have to do is lose one time with AA and you have zero chips and you can't get them back. Saving 33% of your chips always gives you enough to recover if you are winning 84% of the time.

No player will let YOU determine how much of your stack you want to risk, but this is the optimum number, in my opinion.

Good luck.

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Thanks, this was very helpful.

My opinion

I have the same thing happen to me. Don't worry you proved you were worthy so you will get the job. They will work out your winning details when they see your work.

NWPatriot said:

This really is about the only thing you can do. You WILL get cooled and have bad beats sooner or later. If you can manage to build a stack, then you can survive anything thrown at you, for a limited time of course.

Unless I have the nuts, I have estimated that the "optimum" risk on a hand should be about 67% of your stack. If you play AA only, with an 84% chance of winning, you might find that this level of risk yields the biggest stack at the end or 25 hands. In other words, if you get to showdown 25 times with AA, and you risk 67% of your stack each time and get called, you will have the biggest stack using a 67% stack risk. You might think all-in is the best result, but all you have to do is lose one time with AA and you have zero chips and you can't get them back. Saving 33% of your chips always gives you enough to recover if you are winning 84% of the time.

No player will let YOU determine how much of your stack you want to risk, but this is the optimum number, in my opinion.

Good luck.

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This is quite possibly the strangest thing I've ever read in a strat forum. That doesn't mean it's inaccurate, but IDKuke:

The only thing you can do is try to avoid the situations.
Remember
"The chips you have are worth more than the chips you can win"
"Most wins are marginal and Loss's can be fatal"

rmcneice said:

The only thing you can do is try to avoid the situations.
Remember
"The chips you have are worth more than the chips you can win"
"Most wins are marginal and Loss's can be fatal"

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Those quotes are so true, thanks.

Lots of interesting thoughts in this thread. Coolers and bad beats happen, you cant control them. You just have to make the best decisions you can. It is very difficult to win a poker tournament and you most likely need to get lucky at some point unless you sun run the entire tournament.

I just bubbled a tournament AQs vs A5o and they caught 345. This is getting ridiculous.

Phoenix14 said:

I just bubbled a tournament AQs vs A5o and they caught 345. This is getting ridiculous.

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If this gets to you too much maybe tournaments aren't for you. I know it sucks but you are supposed to lose this 1 out of 4 times and you run into this situation a lot in mtts. You have to learn to manage your stack to where these beats don't crush you. Also you will be on the receiving end of beats like this pretty often, as they are supersuper standard

The only thing I can think to do is play more suited connectors and steal more pots so I'm not relying on not catching bad beats.

Opinions anyone?

Phoenix14 said:

So I make the right call almost every time in tournaments, but I usually get knocked out right at the end by stupid coolers.

How do you avoid this happening?

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Having a big stack so you can absorb them.

NWPatriot said:

This really is about the only thing you can do. You WILL get cooled and have bad beats sooner or later. If you can manage to build a stack, then you can survive anything thrown at you, for a limited time of course.

Unless I have the nuts, I have estimated that the "optimum" risk on a hand should be about 67% of your stack. If you play AA only, with an 84% chance of winning, you might find that this level of risk yields the biggest stack at the end or 25 hands. In other words, if you get to showdown 25 times with AA, and you risk 67% of your stack each time and get called, you will have the biggest stack using a 67% stack risk. You might think all-in is the best result, but all you have to do is lose one time with AA and you have zero chips and you can't get them back. Saving 33% of your chips always gives you enough to recover if you are winning 84% of the time.

No player will let YOU determine how much of your stack you want to risk, but this is the optimum number, in my opinion.

Good luck.

Click to expand...

tmfnsanders said:

This is quite possibly the strangest thing I've ever read in a strat forum. That doesn't mean it's inaccurate, but IDKuke:

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AGREED! & of course it's inaccurate.
if only it was that easy... we could all just fold til' we're holding the nuts & expect action. I mean of course we're gonna run THAT GOOD, lol.

Poker Orifice said:

AGREED! & of course it's inaccurate.
if only it was that easy... we could all just fold til' we're holding the nuts & expect action. I mean of course we're gonna run THAT GOOD, lol.

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Sorry guys, i guess i didn't explain myself well enough. I never said that I only play AA or that I only play the nuts, and i don't think i suggested a strategy to do such a thing. The point i was making in regards to the initial question was to agree that building a big stack so you do not have to go all-in at risk is really the best answer for the posed question.

My analysis stating 67% maximum stack risk IS IN FACT the optimum number, but it is nearly impossible to implement a 67% maximum stack risk strategy in a real game setting. I don't think I said this is what anyone should do, i was merely stating an observation i have made. Isn't it good to know what the perfect answer is given a set of conditions?

Try it yourself: 25 hands to showdown with an 84% equity = 21 wins and 4 losses in a perfect world, whatever your starting stack is, what stack risk would give you a better result than risking 67%? Obviously the real world includes some folds and 25 hands with 84% equity would not really play out this way. When analyzing a specific condition, you must be careful to only vary one variable at a time, otherwise you may not know which variable is causing your anomaly, if you think there is one.

tmfnsanders said:

This is quite possibly the strangest thing I've ever read in a strat forum. That doesn't mean it's inaccurate, but IDKuke:

Click to expand...

Thanks for the encouragement - I especially like the puking emoji. Did you take the time to try and understand what I was trying to say?

smallfrie said:

Build a big enough stack that you can survive being a cooler or two.

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This just skips the question. How do you avoid coolers while you try to build your stack?

rmcneice said:

The only thing you can do is try to avoid the situations.
Remember
"The chips you have are worth more than the chips you can win"
"Most wins are marginal and Loss's can be fatal"

Click to expand...

Blinds are fatal. Unless everyone folds while you are the Big Blind every time, you are going to get blinded out with a 100% certainty.

Coolers happen thanks to the Gap Concept. If you only cold call/3bet with a strong hand against a tight player, a cooler is expected, because it's very likely that both of you have strong hands. If you want to avoid it, then lay down your strong hand, but you run the risk of becoming too tight. If your opponents are aware of the gap concept, the same is true when you open with a strong hand—you'll be called/re-raised by another strong hand only. If everyone on the table plays according to the gap concept, then expect most hands to never reach showdown, and whenever they reach it, the cooler is almost inevitable. On such tight tables, you should try to steal more pots with marginal hands. Just don't overdo it, or you'll be caught. If you've been folding for a long time, you can get away with some bluffs, thanks to your table image. Hey, at least when you get caught it won't be a cooler—you'll be crushed , but you give yourself the chance to get a lucky board. If you only play premium hands which play themselves, your entire good luck depends on how often you get such hands, and whether you get any action from your opponents then, and whether you are lucky to avoid a bad beat.

One way to avoid coolers is to play looser, and to try to catch a monster hand. If you are low on chips, though, that's not wise. Your only hope then is to catch a decent starting hand and to try to isolate some loose player. Unfortunately, they'll have you covered most of the time, because only the big stacks can afford to play loose. Another target might be someone who is desperate to survive. Such players will often shove with any Ace, King or a pair, but it will be hard to isolate them when there are bigger stacks around.

I like how in Omaha, the winning hand is way more often the Nuts, or at least the second best. It's easier to know where your hand stands.

Unless I was in danger of blinding out if making the money is the goal then I'm not playing AQ there. If the goal is to improve my stack and try to run deep you take the risk and forget about the loss.

Lol I had some guy call me a fish, then he donked off his stack with 59o all in pre. Just thought I'd share.

Phoenix14 said:

Lol I had some guy call me a fish, then he donked off his stack with 59o all in pre. Just thought I'd share.

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Did you berate him at the table after this hand?

Phoenix14 said:

So I make the right call almost every time in tournaments, but I usually get knocked out right at the end by stupid coolers.


How do you avoid this happening?

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Well how else can you lose if you make the right call almost every time?

NWPatriot said:

This really is about the only thing you can do. You WILL get cooled and have bad beats sooner or later. If you can manage to build a stack, then you can survive anything thrown at you, for a limited time of course.

Unless I have the nuts, I have estimated that the "optimum" risk on a hand should be about 67% of your stack. If you play AA only, with an 84% chance of winning, you might find that this level of risk yields the biggest stack at the end or 25 hands. In other words, if you get to showdown 25 times with AA, and you risk 67% of your stack each time and get called, you will have the biggest stack using a 67% stack risk. You might think all-in is the best result, but all you have to do is lose one time with AA and you have zero chips and you can't get them back. Saving 33% of your chips always gives you enough to recover if you are winning 84% of the time.

No player will let YOU determine how much of your stack you want to risk, but this is the optimum number, in my opinion.

Good luck.

Click to expand...

How I can downvote this?

This is bound to happen relatively often the deeper u get in a tourney. There is obviously the bad luck that is involved in poker. When your good hand runs into a better hand there is not a lot u can do. I just got knocked out of a tourney with 2 pair Aces and Fives that ran into a set of Sixes. There just is not a lot u can do when a hand like this is disguised and beats u.