Confused about a certain ICM calculation...

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jaded848

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While playing around with SnG Power Tools, I discovered that while on the bubble, if the blinds are say 100/200 and I have 1500 chips, I can only shove 10% of hands from the button if I have two players in front of me with stacks of 2000 each (both have ranges of 44+, A7s, A9o, KJs). Is this correct? Normally my range here would be way wider because it's the bubble. Would I really run into 44+/A7s/A9o/KJs often enough for it to not be profitable to shove a hand like, say, QTo? Heck, I'd probably shove way worse than that just because I figure my fold equity would be good enough.

Just when I think I understand ICM, I realize I have no clue haha
 
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WiZZiM

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if your opponents are bad, and are calling that loose. (calling with some of those hands would be really bad), then yes, our range naturally has to tighten.. if we are sb vs bb and the ranges are the same then you will see we can shove probably anytwo. but on the button, now we have another person to shove into. and to be honest, were not in totally bad shape here.

so, if you refer back to my sng thread, shoving wide and getting called late in a game is a massive spew of equity.

first diagram is the situation you said, the second is when we get to the next level on stars, when the ante kicks in, as you can see, it widens our range as now, there is more dead money in the pot.

the second one is shoving sb v bb against the same opponent same range at the same level without an ante. as you can see, its a really easy shove with anytwo, and missing a shove like this is as bad as shoving when you shouldnt.

if you can see the "diff %" youll notice that in the first diagram it is -.48 so in terms of equity, we have lost .48% or 4%ROI now when you review a hand, and you make a mistake thats greater than .50 in either direction, like if you make a shove that is -.70 then its a prety huge mistake, -.48% imo is a pretty big mistake.
if you can see in the bottom diagram our diff% is +1.24, so same thing goes, if we miss this shove, weve just lost about 1.24%equity in the tournament or 12%ROI so yeah, the same thing goes, if we miss a shove thats greater than .50 its a pretty big mistake.
 

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jaded848

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if your opponents are bad, and are calling that loose. (calling with some of those hands would be really bad), then yes, our range naturally has to tighten.. if we are sb vs bb and the ranges are the same then you will see we can shove probably anytwo. but on the button, now we have another person to shove into. and to be honest, were not in totally bad shape here.

so, if you refer back to my sng thread, shoving wide and getting called late in a game is a massive spew of equity.

first diagram is the situation you said, the second is when we get to the next level on stars, when the ante kicks in, as you can see, it widens our range as now, there is more dead money in the pot.

the second one is shoving sb v bb against the same opponent same range at the same level without an ante. as you can see, its a really easy shove with anytwo, and missing a shove like this is as bad as shoving when you shouldnt.

if you can see the "diff %" youll notice that in the first diagram it is -.48 so in terms of equity, we have lost .48% or 4%ROI now when you review a hand, and you make a mistake thats greater than .50 in either direction, like if you make a shove that is -.70 then its a prety huge mistake, -.48% imo is a pretty big mistake.
if you can see in the bottom diagram our diff% is +1.24, so same thing goes, if we miss this shove, weve just lost about 1.24%equity in the tournament or 12%ROI so yeah, the same thing goes, if we miss a shove thats greater than .50 its a pretty big mistake.

Thanks for the reply WiZZiM, I was hoping to hear from you. I read some of your thread and definitely see what you mean about spewing equity at the later stages. However, something still bugs me- I've always heard that playing loose on the bubble is the key to gaining chips, particularly against bad players who will tend to tighten up on the bubble until they are ITM. But at the same time, I can see how losing on the bubble is essentially the death blow in terms of equity. How do you balance these conflicting ideologies with your style of play? Is it a matter of just trying to isolate so the bulk of your money comes from SB/BB steals?
 
tpb221

tpb221

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However, something still bugs me- I've always heard that playing loose on the bubble is the key to gaining chips, particularly against bad players who will tend to tighten up on the bubble until they are ITM.

This applys to MTT and not STT/Sng. It's not that your playing 'loose' on the bubble as much as your taking advantage of weak/small stack players. In a MTT you would pick on the small stacks that have enough to make the bubble but can not risk playing anything more than premium hands or they will be out. This is assuming that you have a decent stack and can afford to lose to the small stacks. You would also try and avoid the bigger stacks.
In a Sng/STT there is not alot of chips in play to begin with so your chips are much more vauable in terms of money/icm/equtiy then they would be in a MTT bubble setting.
Remember-There are time when the chips you lose are more vauable then the chips you win. ie..the risk is greater then the reward.
 
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WiZZiM

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Thanks for the reply WiZZiM, I was hoping to hear from you. I read some of your thread and definitely see what you mean about spewing equity at the later stages. However, something still bugs me- I've always heard that playing loose on the bubble is the key to gaining chips, particularly against bad players who will tend to tighten up on the bubble until they are ITM. But at the same time, I can see how losing on the bubble is essentially the death blow in terms of equity. How do you balance these conflicting ideologies with your style of play? Is it a matter of just trying to isolate so the bulk of your money comes from SB/BB steals?

the bulk of our money comes from expoliting bubble situations, its true that players will tighten their calling range for the most part, but that doesnt mean we can just go nuts and shove all in every hand, eventually, they will either get sick of you a spite call, or you will run into the tops of their ranges. or they will loosen their range and call you lighter.

its a very broad question your asking, and one that relies on a lot of differing factors. but basically

on the bubble with even stacks, we dont really want to get involved to much, so were shoving a much tighter range.

if were shorter in chips than the other players, then our range has to loosen, we need to make a move or we will be blinded out.

if were the big stack, that is superb as we can "own" the bubble, and exploit the smaller chip stacks.



but yes, its true that the bulk of our shoving will be done blind vs blind, so in the above example, since were on the button, with roughly even stacks, there is one bigger stack, but were not in that bad of shape, our range is still fairly tight.. now, like mentioned, if there is an ante present, then we can open up our range as there is more dead money in the pot..

that sng power tools is really quite difficult to use, i think sng wizard is much more effective and easier to use, if you want to get serious about playing sng's then i suggest investing in that piece of software.. however, i believe you can still get by with powertools, its just harder to use, when you want to analyise situations like this.
 
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