Coin flips in tourneys? Slight hand analysis

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goodhandluke

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This is like half hand analysis half im looking for some input on the situation in general..


Okay so do you take 50/50 risks in a tournament mid or early stage?

I was in BB. Holding AK offsuit. Someone in late position shoved for 3k, i had a 2.5k stack.

Blinds were 100/200.

When he shoved, i figured he had aces or kings, i couldnt imagine him shoving with anything lower. But for some reason i was hoping he had AQ or AJ so i called.

But he turned over pocket 7's and i lost. Its a coin flip.

But for some reason I feel like i shouldve folded. The 50% risk wasnt worth it, i could still be alive in the tourney and have taken a better risk somewhere else..

What do you think? Would you guys fold here?
 
TheBigFinn

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you had 11 big blinds left so you should be looking for push opportunites. I think your analysis is wrong. Aces and Kings Likely QQ andJJ too) raise and hope for a call Ak and medium pairs push.

You can't fall below 8 big blinds or you lose any hope of other players folding to your raise.
 
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goodhandluke

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See in that situation i agree with you.

But here i was in the blinds, i couldnt raise.

He straight shoved in ahead of me. And it was either call for all in or fold.

I had 2700 so i had abouttttttt 14 bb's

And id rather have folded and still be playing and maybe try to steal the blinds longer or pick up the same or better hand in a better spot on the table..
 
Jacki Burkhart

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not all coin flips are created equal.

for instance if he shoves into you and you hold ATo and you ask "should I take the coin flip? the answer might be "no" because you can't really be sure you are flipping. he could have 77 he could have AJ he could have TT so you're anywhere from 25-50% equity but you're rarely very much ahead.

AK is different, you're pretty much always flipping with AK. yes, sometimes they'll have AA or KK but that is basically balanced out by the times they hold AQ or AJ so it's a flip. (In fact weighted away from AA and KK because there are fewer combos than AQ and also people might just make a standard raise with hands as strong as KK, AA so they might not be jamming into you to begin with).

and yes, I think you should take most flips WHEN YOU ARE SURE YOU ARE FLIPPING in the late stages of a tourney. the shallower the stacks, the more important taking flips becomes.

In the example you gave you need to be calling quite wide because your stack is shallow. I'd say you should be calling something like 66+ and A9+
 
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S3mper

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The shover only had 15bb and in late position his range is way wider then AA KK you can add Ax K9s+ sooted connectors, small PP lots of hands

This is an insta call with the stack sizes and blinds considering the shove came from a 15bb in late position

You have to take some chances in tournaments
 
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goodhandluke

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well points made guys.

Idk. I just feel like someone who just insta shoves with 18 BB's probably has something that can beat or tie AK, enough times that its worth folding.

Depends on a lot of factors but i regret not folding in the position i was in

Even if i won that hand its still a coin flip, id rather atleast feel like im ahead

if i shoved and he calls its different, or if i raise and he shoves thats different too

Is it important to note he was in late position and couldve been trying to steal so his range was wide? sure. But i had a good read on this guy, he was super tight, never once stole, so i really put him on AK minimum.

He turned over a pocket pair and i lost, and after checking the poker calculator i was less than a coin flip at about 47% i think, maybe 43%.. cant remember lol even pocket deuces are favored against me

if i had 10 BBs id insta call. but i had about12-13 and couldve went a few more rounds.. I didnt NEED to make this call. And thats the point of this thread, do you take coin flips you dont need too?
 
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SwiftHax

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Insta-call. Yes, you have 47% equity against any pocket pair which is nearly a 50/50 aka coinflip. The good side about AK is that your hand blocks AA and KK, so you have decreased chance of going against them meaning you're flipping most of the time. In late and mid stages I'll always take a flip and so should you.

Early tourney is different. If you are able to put pressure on the table and earn even more chips, take it, but in these low buy-in MTT's I sometimes play, there are too many calling stations so you can't use your big stack to a full advantage, so I'll try putting my chips in better spots. Once my stack compared to the blinds get shallow, it's normally mid tourney and flips are encouraged.
 
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hffjd2000

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Many factors to be considered on our decision whether to accept coinflips.

But then again, the proposition is 50 50, meaning when you accept it and lost, you gamble. When you accept it and win, you still gamble there.
 
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joe777

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AK also has the raise value of 15bb so i would definitely call against the average stack.
 
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Lekoo

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With stack low like yours you should call always from BB. In many cases it will be a flip, but also in many cases you will be ahead (there is opportunity that he is shoving with worse cards than yours, and thinks that u will fold).

So, all in all, you made a correct choice.
 
Michael Paler

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If you are not calling/shoving 10-14 BB preflop when holding AK, you are in the wrong game. Unless your close to the money, or KNOW your opponent has a big pair, you just gotta go to the races. It's a certain raise from any postiton, so your pretty much stuck. You wait for a top 3 big pair at that stack, your going to most likely get blinded out.
All that being said, I would consider a fold, even short stacked, if there was a ton of action ahead of me....maybe. You watch the table, I assume, so you should have some idea as to the range of certin players shoving range. Bigger stacks can easily afford to try to get lucky with a far wider range. Yet, if two-three short stacks go all in ahead of you and It's going to kill you if you don't win, you might consider a fold. Remeber, AA flys into possible losing territory the more players in the hand. Same thing for AK. But it's really hard not to call. The more all ins, the more likely your looking at showing up with only two over cards to someones pair. But heads up? Unless you just know they have AA, you simply must call. And it's not like no one has ever beat AA with AK...you see it all the time. Sure, it also sucks to show up against 33, hit trip K's on the flop and watch your chips go bye-bye when the guy rivers a 3 for a full, but what are you going to do?
Some folks can never give it up tho. I see that all the time. A tight player goes 2x or 3x preflop, gets a call, and fires away on a board with no paint. If you know he's tight and most likely has a big A or AA and you get lucky with your 89 suited for two pair, you can snap him off and double up. I mean, calling or betting all three streets with ace high is so common, it's no wonder these types get snookered all the time, lol. But get ready - you call a 2x rasie from the BB and call the guy down when you hit bottom pair, knowing what he most likely has, he will call you lots of names. So if you do this remeber the old adage "Never wise up a sucker"
 
Mordecoke

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You did fine considering you were short stack.
If you would've folded that would've been the wrong play.
AK is a really profitable hand especially when you have to ladder up.
Plus look at the odds. The odds of getting dealt pocket aces are 1 in 221
So it is more unlikely he has AA when you are holding one ace.
Plus if your opponent is holding pocket kings, you still have hope of hitting an ace because of the one over & also, your opponent is less likely to hit his set with pocket kings because you hold 1 king.
Don't fold AK when your short. :D
 
TheBigFinn

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well points made guys.

Idk. I just feel like someone who just insta shoves with 18 BB's probably has something that can beat or tie AK, enough times that its worth folding.

Depends on a lot of factors but i regret not folding in the position i was in

Even if i won that hand its still a coin flip, id rather atleast feel like im ahead

if i shoved and he calls its different, or if i raise and he shoves thats different too

Is it important to note he was in late position and couldve been trying to steal so his range was wide? sure. But i had a good read on this guy, he was super tight, never once stole, so i really put him on AK minimum.

He turned over a pocket pair and i lost, and after checking the poker calculator i was less than a coin flip at about 47% i think, maybe 43%.. cant remember lol even pocket deuces are favored against me

if i had 10 BBs id insta call. but i had about12-13 and couldve went a few more rounds.. I didnt NEED to make this call. And thats the point of this thread, do you take coin flips you dont need too?

I think your evaluation "someone who just insta shoves with 18 BB's probably has something that can beat or tie AK, enough times that its worth folding" is faulty. IMHO shoving instead of raising indicates a weaker hand and makes AA or KK less likely and AQ, AJ and even AT more likely. IMHO, you are calling a range with over 50% equity. The question is, "Will you have a significantly better spot later? How good a spot do you want? The odds of drawing any particular pocket pair are less than 1/2 percent. You can't wait for AA or KK.
 
martymart48

martymart48

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On bb whit AK is hard to fold.Call is not a bad play here you can win.
If you fold 100% sure you lose 200 chips.
 
romych007

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I probably pushed his chips all with aces or kings
 
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DrHorrible

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As has been stated there is no reason to fold in this situation. Insta-call if I have ever seen one, exception being if you are ON the bubble...but you weren't.
 
horizon12

horizon12

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And what here to analyze ? Your have small stack, AK top our range, so easy call..
 
deluns28

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This is the good spot to shove it in. If you think you can fold here and wait another chance, be prepared to be blinded out. That is also another type of gamble. The play is fine. I will be focusing on how to improve to get to the midstage with bigger stacks than regretting this hand.
 
n3rv

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Easy call... you need to win a few coin flips to win a tourney. Preferably towards the end of the tourney, but if you are short stacked early on then you have no choice.
 
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nygmen2007

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I mean AK is not a made hand, so it is a gamble and one I would make early one, because you want to get chips early so you can hang on near the bubble and not have to be desperate. What if this exact thing happened later on in the tourney, does it make it any different? I like the call...
 
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