Coin flip preflop variance

debriz

debriz

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What is the maximum period of time always losing/bust out if you always gamble all-in coin flip situation preflop? Let's say in pokerstars..
 
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WiZZiM

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not sure what you mean... over time it will be 50/50, but you can still lose 10 in a row or more, it can happen. The funny thing about variance is that the more you play, the more variance you are likely to expect to see, relative to your skill level and edge in the games you play.
 
dnegsisabadreg

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What are you asking? How many coin flips you can lose in a row? If that's the question, the answer is theoretically infinite, you might lose every coin flip you ever have.
 
Logan2

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What are you asking? How many coin flips you can lose in a row? If that's the question, the answer is theoretically infinite, you might lose every coin flip you ever have.

this

if not want to gamble then avoid high variance plays.
 
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ph_il

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It all depends on how large your sample size is. Over a larger sample size, you can expect it to be near 50/50.

Lets take a coin and flip 100,000 times. At the end, the number of heads vs tails should be pretty equal. It might not be exactly 50/50, but close enough...say 49/51.

Now, if we take that same coin and flip it only 100 times, it may not come as close to 50/50. It may be 60/40 or even 70/30. Lets say it's 70% heads, it doesn't mean that heads is going to come up more often than tails, it just means your sample size is too low to get it exact.

So, to answer your question: there is no exact number but over time, if you are in 50/50 situations, your win/lose with balance out. Busting out of 10 tournaments (for example) in 50/50 situations is nothing. Just because it's 50/50 doesn't mean you're going to win 5 flips, lose 5 flips. It's not how it works.
 
debriz

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It all depends on how large your sample size is. Over a larger sample size, you can expect it to be near 50/50.

Lets take a coin and flip 100,000 times. At the end, the number of heads vs tails should be pretty equal. It might not be exactly 50/50, but close enough...say 49/51.

Now, if we take that same coin and flip it only 100 times, it may not come as close to 50/50. It may be 60/40 or even 70/30. Lets say it's 70% heads, it doesn't mean that heads is going to come up more often than tails, it just means your sample size is too low to get it exact.

So, to answer your question: there is no exact number but over time, if you are in 50/50 situations, your win/lose with balance out. Busting out of 10 tournaments (for example) in 50/50 situations is nothing. Just because it's 50/50 doesn't mean you're going to win 5 flips, lose 5 flips. It's not how it works.

If your the shortest stack for example your near to bubble with 4k/8k blinds you have 9k left/1BB, your in button position holding AK clubs then MP raises to 3BB, cut off call, is there no choice here but to gamble with 1BB left and might triple up or bust out and not get into ITM? let's say MP has tens, cut off has Jacks...this usually happens in late game, busting out time with big hands/coin flip situation. You always regret if you lose that hand and busted out and thinking your decision is not right to gamble coinflip situation. Let say its a big buy-in tourney..
 
debriz

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this

if not want to gamble then avoid high variance plays.

Sometimes we want to be in the top/chip lead even in a middle game so we get relax and not rough getting into ITM. Example you have 40BB stack, you are in BB position, everybody folds..SB shove you all-in pre-flop with 60BB stack. And you peek cards AK clubs...Most of the time, this action clearly shows a coin flip situation (he will not shove if he's KK or AA). If the opponent's holds QQ,JJ,TT or less stealing the pot w/o showdown, if you call he might at risk a large of chips and you will get bust out if you don't win that hand as well. One time I'm on this situation hold AK suited, SB shoves me all-in with more stack than me..Actually above example is my own experience... I've used my whole time bank calculating everything if I gamble my hand in the middle game..how many players left, average stack sizes, etc. If I call and win at showdown, I'm a chip leader and more guaranteed to final table but unfortunately I don't hit my AK clubs and get bust out by pocket 88.
I always think that my decision is not right in that coin flip situation because I lost.. And now seeking for good ideas and do better next time...
 
debriz

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not sure what you mean... over time it will be 50/50, but you can still lose 10 in a row or more, it can happen. The funny thing about variance is that the more you play, the more variance you are likely to expect to see, relative to your skill level and edge in the games you play.

I mean getting bust out in a tournament usually happen near to bubble, Pokerstars give you a better hand/premium hand, especially AK suited or QQ because if you will not gamble it, more probably you didn't get into ITM. I mean it's my 4 days now playing MTT close to bubble having not a good stack so no choice but to gamble to double or triple up with huge blinds. That's why I'm confused if how long is the maximum time or days playing MTT that Pokerstars always put you in a losing part of coin flip. I'ts my 4 days now not getting into ITM because of the coinflip. I can't count the number of tourneys but so many..If I'm AK,..QQ,JJ,TT or pocket numbers will bust me out. If I'm QQ and lower pockets always lost with AK..We all know poker is vice versa, you don't always lose especially you did a right play. That's why I asked in my OP, if how long or what is the maximum time/days will Pokerstars will put you in a losing part of coin flip..So if it will take a month for me always lose coin flips so no more wonder why..atleast I'm aware already :)
 
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That doesn't depend on Pokerstars. Pokerstars doesn't say "this player lost too often. Let's let him win again." It's only luck if the random generator let's you win.
 
Poker Orifice

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I mean getting bust out in a tournament usually happen near to bubble, Pokerstars give you a better hand/premium hand, especially AK suited or QQ because if you will not gamble it, more probably you didn't get into ITM. I mean it's my 4 days now playing MTT close to bubble having not a good stack so no choice but to gamble to double or triple up with huge blinds. That's why I'm confused if how long is the maximum time or days playing MTT that Pokerstars always put you in a losing part of coin flip. I'ts my 4 days now not getting into ITM because of the coinflip. I can't count the number of tourneys but so many..If I'm AK,..QQ,JJ,TT or pocket numbers will bust me out. If I'm QQ and lower pockets always lost with AK..We all know poker is vice versa, you don't always lose especially you did a right play. That's why I asked in my OP, if how long or what is the maximum time/days will Pokerstars will put you in a losing part of coin flip..So if it will take a month for me always lose coin flips so no more wonder why..atleast I'm aware already :)

Maybe if you write to support they will tell you how many more tournaments you can expect this to happen for. (it usually only happens for 3 days so it is a bit surprising to hear it's been 4 days for you now)
 
ribaric

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what do you mean? In coin flip its all luck you can win or loose with any card
 
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WiZZiM

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I mean getting bust out in a tournament usually happen near to bubble, Pokerstars give you a better hand/premium hand, especially AK suited or QQ because if you will not gamble it, more probably you didn't get into ITM. I mean it's my 4 days now playing MTT close to bubble having not a good stack so no choice but to gamble to double or triple up with huge blinds. That's why I'm confused if how long is the maximum time or days playing MTT that Pokerstars always put you in a losing part of coin flip. I'ts my 4 days now not getting into ITM because of the coinflip. I can't count the number of tourneys but so many..If I'm AK,..QQ,JJ,TT or pocket numbers will bust me out. If I'm QQ and lower pockets always lost with AK..We all know poker is vice versa, you don't always lose especially you did a right play. That's why I asked in my OP, if how long or what is the maximum time/days will Pokerstars will put you in a losing part of coin flip..So if it will take a month for me always lose coin flips so no more wonder why..atleast I'm aware already :)

there isn't an answer to that. if the equity is 50/50 ran over a million hands, then you will finish around 50/50, the more hands you play, the closer you will fall to being exactly 50/50. IF you have played 5 tournaments in the past 4 days, you can pretty easily bust out in those tournaments and lose every single flip you play. That can happen for 100's or 1000's of tournaments. But the more you play, the more you will get closer to that true 50/50 mark, and the more ITM you will get.

More to the actual important point here, it's not pokerstars doing this to you, it's almost certainly a lack of skill and lack of volume that is truly the cause of your tournament misfortunes, sorry to sound like a dick, but the sooner you accept that, the sooner you can move on and get better at this game.


"bank calculating everything if I gamble my hand in the middle game..how many players left, average stack sizes, etc. If I call and win at showdown, I'm a chip leader and more guaranteed to final table but unfortunately I don't hit my AK clubs and get bust out by pocket 88.
I always think that my decision is not right in that coin flip situation because I lost.. And now seeking for good ideas and do better next time..."


Just wanted to address the above post to logan. The thing you need to realize about poker is that it differs from pretty much everything else you learn at on the planet. Most things, you work at it, you will get better and you will see the results of the improve as you practise. Think playing tennis, the more you play, the better you results will be to a certain point. If you are studying something in school, the more you study it the better you will understand and thus your results will improve.

however, poker is differant as you have a luck element which can really throw people off balance if they don't realize how much of a bitch variance can be. So you study poker, you get a better understanding, You bring this new understanding to the poker table and you get crushed, lose every hand, get dominated every time. But it wasn't beacuse you were playing bad, it's just that the luck element was not on your side tonight. Of course we should always be improving/tweaking our game, BUt sometimes we implement a new way to play, and if we don't see results immediately we give up or try something else, when what was to blame was a bad run of variance.

Converesly, lets say we go to a poker coach, we get training, and suddenly we run really good on the tables and we win a ton. Now, granted you probably learnt a few things, but more likely is that you are just on a run of good luck at the tables. Then in a weeks time you start running bad and you are again questioning everything you learnt.

I've been in both of these situations, but really what helped me most was looking into variance and how bad it can be, EVEN if you are playing GOOD.

Hope this babble helps somewhat.
 
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ph_il

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If your the shortest stack for example your near to bubble with 4k/8k blinds you have 9k left/1BB, your in button position holding AK clubs then MP raises to 3BB, cut off call, is there no choice here but to gamble with 1BB left and might triple up or bust out and not get into ITM?
...This is an easy call with this hand for just 1BB to get little better than a triple up, especially if there are antes. You're still short stack with ~4BBs, but now if you double up again, you're at ~10BBs (antes + blinds included). This is a lot better situation than if you hand folded the AKs, won a coin flip a few hands later and were only at ~3BBs or less. You'd still have a huge mountain to climb with your short stack.

There's very little difference if you busted out the previous hand with AKs or the next hand, but giving up a great spot with AKs to triple up would be a bad decision. When you're short stack, it's about picking your spots to get your money in.


let's say MP has tens, cut off has Jacks...this usually happens in late game, busting out time with big hands/coin flip situation. You always regret if you lose that hand and busted out and thinking your decision is not right to gamble coinflip situation. Let say its a big buy-in tourney..
...There should be no regret for getting your money in with one of the best hands you can possibly get. If you had AA and lost, do you still regret getting your money in? If you said yes, then I think you should stop playing or really think about how bad that type of thinking is. Aside for AA or KK, AKs is a very strong hand to have in 3 way situation. In fact, if you run the numbers, you're about even with the JJ to win preflop. JJ-43.21%,AKs-39.36%, 1010-17.12%. So, you'd rather have this hand, than say 1010 if your opponents had JJ and 99, because you'd only be a 17.89% favorite to win.
above.
 
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