+chipEV but -$EV spot?

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benshouse99

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This spot came up recently for me in a live tourney, and I'm stumped as to what the right play was. It felt to me like a classic +chipEV call, ie profitable in terms of chips but -$EV, unprofitable in terms of $equity, using ICM.

100 people in tourney, down to last 17. Tourney is paying 12.
Average stack: 50k

6-handed. Blinds 2000/4000, 200 ante

Dealt to hero: A8 off

UTG: fold
Hero (70000): Raise to 8000
CO: Shoves for 18000
BTN: fold
SB: fold
BB: fold

Pot is now around 30k. Although my holding is weak, and I'm dominated by so many better Aces, I felt that I was getting the right price to call. I needed to put just another 10k into a pot of just over 30k, giving me more than 3-1 odds. This means that if I think I'm >25%, then its +EV in terms of chips. I figured that he's shoving a range which includes a sufficient amount of hands that I have better than 25% against (pocket pairs, KQs etc).

But then, given Bubble is so close, ICM becomes more relevant, and were the chips I risked not worth the chips I could potentially win?


Thoughts? Please and thank you :)
 
Arjonius

Arjonius

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I can see not opening this hand in the first place, but not folding for 10k more one you did and the small stack shoved. Even if you lose, you still have an average stack. Plus how much better off are you if you fold, leaving yourself 62k instead of 52k if you call and lose?
 
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benshouse99

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I can see not opening this hand in the first place, but not folding for 10k more one you did and the small stack shoved. Even if you lose, you still have an average stack. Plus how much better off are you if you fold, leaving yourself 62k instead of 52k if you call and lose?


With just 4 people left behind me, is the HJ seat not profitable to steal from? Everyone was playing super tight with the bubble approaching.

my worry was that if i call and lose, i lose 1/6 of my stack, a really valuable amount when so close to the money. Also, with the blinds as they were, it brought me down to about 12 BBs. Does the potential money equity loss not outweight the favourable pot odds?
 
Arjonius

Arjonius

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With just 4 people left behind me, is the HJ seat not profitable to steal from? Everyone was playing super tight with the bubble approaching.

my worry was that if i call and lose, i lose 1/6 of my stack, a really valuable amount when so close to the money. Also, with the blinds as they were, it brought me down to about 12 BBs. Does the potential money equity loss not outweight the favourable pot odds?
NP with opening. What I don't agree with is folding for barely more than you already put into the pot when losing wouldn't cripple you.

Yes, losing the additional 10K would impact your tournament equity. But so would winning the 26k that's out there.

I'm no expert in advanced poker math, but I'd tend to think that if calling is +chip EV, the tournament EV is no worse than a tiny minus, and could be a larger plus. If so, this gives me more reason to call, not less.
 
Carl Trooper

Carl Trooper

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I think I fold pre. Honestly then becomes 50/50 for me whether I call or fold here.

What is everyone elses stack size? Are you looking to win or just cash? You probably can make a move elsewhere. Although I am surprised average stack is 12 BB, that is pretty poor in itself.
 
Jblocher1

Jblocher1

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Yeah. call. You can not possibly fold in this spot after commiting that much of your stack, if you lose you will still be around The average.... call
 
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WiZZiM

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you should not be thinking about $EV unless your at the final table, it's all about the chips even at this lateish stage.
 
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kworm2013

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do not fold.He just raise more than double of 8K.We have good position.Maybe you have a good luck.
 
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d4tart

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Yeah i'm calling here. Like someone said above me this is one of the best spots to pick up chips and best prepare yourself to WIN the tourney not just cash. Your ahead of hands like QJ, KJ, KQ, 77-22 which are probably in his shoving range. I'm assuming this is a turbo with avg stacks at around 10BB. If this is the case I think this makes it an easier decision to call due to the limited amount of times to get a chip up like this. I can also understand the argument for opening the pot at all. With a short stack behind you he's either shoving or folding which is also something you should consider. So something you can do in the future in similar situations is only open the pots your willing to call with if the short stack does shove.
 
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