+chipEV but -$EV spot?
This spot came up recently for me in a live tourney, and I'm stumped as to what the right play was. It felt to me like a classic +chipEV call, ie profitable in terms of chips but -$EV, unprofitable in terms of $equity, using ICM.
100 people in tourney, down to last 17. Tourney is paying 12.
Average stack: 50k
6-handed. Blinds 2000/4000, 200 ante
Dealt to hero: A8 off
Hero (70000): Raise to 8000
CO: Shoves for 18000
Pot is now around 30k. Although my holding is weak, and I'm dominated by so many better Aces, I felt that I was getting the right price to call. I needed to put just another 10k into a pot of just over 30k, giving me more than 3-1 odds
. This means that if I think I'm >25%, then its +EV in terms of chips. I figured that he's shoving a range which includes a sufficient amount of hands that I have better than 25% against (pocket pairs, KQs etc).
But then, given Bubble is so close, ICM becomes more relevant, and were the chips I risked not worth the chips I could potentially win?
Thoughts? Please and thank you