re: Poker & Cant win this big one year!
Originally Posted by grindsince93
Ill give you an example of some of the things I go through. In a 3.30 rebuy tournament that I entered last week, there were 17 left, pay was at about $120 at the time and my stack was at about 375k (average was 410k), on the big blind I was dealt As Js with UTG raising it to 60k (blinds 10/20k) so I called. flop came down Ks 2s Jc, UTG bet 100k, I shipped and he snapped me off with Kings. Its generally been my exit in nearly every tournament so far when I have ran deep.
If you have an average stack after bubble bursts, I would suggest laying low for a little bit. Play loosens up drastically after the bubble burst, so its best to tighten up until things cool down a bit. On the flip side, I suggest trying to be more aggressive around bubble time. People tighten up and small pots can be had with relative ease. You can build your stack enough to ride out the loose play after the burst.
Additionally, you may be taking unnecessary risks late in the game. To make it deep, you no doubt have to get lucky, but you need to avoid big pots in middling situations.
Looking at the hand above, a UTG raiser (Assuming this was 9 handed) isn't going to be raising with a weak hand. This deep in the tourney, you can assume a AQ, AK, and TT or better as the range. Depending on his play, it could very easily be even tighter.
So AJ is dominated by 3 hands, in bad shape against 3 hands, and a slight dog in 1 hand. There is a good argument to be made for folding here, especially
considering the fact that you will be OOP the rest of the hand. However, you do get a discount from the BB so a call can also be justified.
On the flop, his lead out is a standard CB, but the board is very favorable to his range. I don't like the shove here. It is a huge gamble for your tourney life, IMO. Personally, I would keep the pot as small as possible because I am still on a draw. I wouldn't assume the J is good here without more info. If he calls, you know your behind. There is a chance you take it down right there, but that flop is all over his range. I wouldn't expect him to fold very often.
To me, this wasn't a necessary risk to take. You could keep the pot small and play the remaining streets accordingly. At the very least, he shoves the turn and you can't get away, as risking your life with 1 card to go is pretty difficult IMO. You may be short stacked, but at least your still in the hunt.