Calculate Chips Needed for Satellite

I didn't find a post that detailed how to calculate the number of chips a player will need in order to win a satellite ticket, so I thought I'd share this simple calculation I use.

The discussion in the Venom thread prompted me to post this. I will cross post in that thread after I've created this one.

This is for satellite events that have prize pools consisting of tickets into another event.
Something like the ACR Venom freeroll step events.

I will use the old ACR Venom freeroll format as an example.

To calculate how many chips (approximately) a player will need to earn a ticket.

Take the number of starting chips (3000) multiplied by the number of entrants (900) and then divide by the number of tickets available (113).
3000x900 ÷ 113 = 23,894 chips.
This calculation can be done at any time, but will need to be revised when late registration closes.

From my experience playing in these events, the number of chips is a rough approximation, and is usually a little higher than what is needed. This is most likely due to bigger stacks going head to head and busting one another out and smaller stacks attempting to fold their way to a ticket.

User Advisory Warning: This simple calculation is only an approximation. I am not responsible for a calculation being too high or too low and the expected chip count causing a player to have unmet expectations.


Hope this is helpful for the community.

Hey there, I am the co-author of Poker Satellite Strategy, my co-author Dara did an AMA here on satellites https://www.cardschat.com/forum/tou...-okearney-satellite-specialist-ask-me-425223/

Your method is pretty much in line with what we found, to add to it, when there are lots of seats on offer we suggest that you usually can get to the money with 70% of that average chip stack, so in your example about 17,000 chips would usually do it (but not always).

Average chip count - at what point?

daveshoelace said:

Hey there, I am the co-author of Poker Satellite Strategy, my co-author Dara did an AMA here on satellites https://www.cardschat.com/forum/tou...-okearney-satellite-specialist-ask-me-425223/

Your method is pretty much in line with what we found, to add to it, when there are lots of seats on offer we suggest that you usually can get to the money with 70% of that average chip stack, so in your example about 17,000 chips would usually do it (but not always).

Click to expand...

Hey - thanks for the input. I have seen the AMA though I've yet to dig through the information shared.

One question related to calculating chip count, at what point could the calculation you propose be used? I assume this may be useful if the same event runs with a similar number of runners, the calculation can be used to estimate an upcoming event.
However without a historical event to relate to how could a player estimate the average chip count?

The approximate chip stack you state seems pretty accurate - using the example I provided.
The usefulness of the calculation I share is it can be performed at any time of an event, with the knowledge that the outcome of the equation will be slightly higher than the very least amount of chips needed.

theANMATOR said:

Hey - thanks for the input. I have seen the AMA though I've yet to dig through the information shared.

One question related to calculating chip count, at what point could the calculation you propose be used? I assume this may be useful if the same event runs with a similar number of runners, the calculation can be used to estimate an upcoming event.
However without a historical event to relate to how could a player estimate the average chip count?

The approximate chip stack you state seems pretty accurate - using the example I provided.
The usefulness of the calculation I share is it can be performed at any time of an event, with the knowledge that the outcome of the equation will be slightly higher than the very least amount of chips needed.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure you could use the same calc for a regular MTT if that is what you mean? Other than that it can be applied for any satellite with more than one prize. The only difference is the more seats, the smaller your stack can be in practical terms. If, for example, 100 seats are to be won, you can sometimes sneak over the line with 50% of the average stack - most of this info is gleaned from Dara's years of experience more than anything.

We also have some calcs in the book on how to estimate when to play looser/tighter before you get near the target stack, but thats way too involved to post quickly here.