C. Moshman SnG question

fletchdad

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I have been a bookworm since December last year. Have finished a bunch, and re reading almost everyone, as well as starting new ones. And it is amazing, how slowly but surely the knowledge sets in.

I am reviewing SnG strategy and have a question. (1 of SOOOOOO many)

In the beginning of the book - page 8 - Collin talks about the table being folded to the 2 aggresive blinds, Jim and Bob, who raise and RR each other till both are all in, with AKd and 22. Collin then goes on to talk about the negative equity this has in the long run, since double chips are not double equity. Many of you know this book and will be familiar with this story.
My question is: In a similar situation, I will raise the re raise till all in, regardless of opponent, with AA, KK, AK suited (even tho AK is starting to be a question for me). And if I have a read I may include QQ, AKos (even tho these may be pushed with out a great read most of the time, although if I have a good read, and think my QQ is dominated, I will fold) and AQ suited, and, depending on the read, JJ or even lower PP, as I said this is totally villain dependent. Normally in early stage, I will only go top premium. Now the example in the book is about understanding SNG equity, but I was just wondering what you all think and do in early stage with such hands, and what everyone's different ranges look like.
 
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I have been a bookworm since December last year. Have finished a bunch, and re reading almost everyone, as well as starting new ones. And it is amazing, how slowly but surely the knowledge sets in.

I am reviewing SnG strategy and have a question. (1 of SOOOOOO many)

In the beginning of the book - page 8 - Collin talks about the table being folded to the 2 aggresive blinds, Jim and Bob, who raise and RR each other till both are all in, with AKd and 22. Collin then goes on to talk about the negative equity this has in the long run, since double chips are not double equity. Many of you know this book and will be familiar with this story.
My question is: In a similar situation, I will raise the re raise till all in, regardless of opponent, with AA, KK, AK suited (even tho AK is starting to be a question for me). And if I have a read I may include QQ, AKos (even tho these may be pushed with out a great read most of the time, although if I have a good read, and think my QQ is dominated, I will fold) and AQ suited, and, depending on the read, JJ or even lower PP, as I said this is totally villain dependent. Normally in early stage, I will only go top premium. Now the example in the book is about understanding SNG equity, but I was just wondering what you all think and do in early stage with such hands, and what everyone's different ranges look like.

I'm going to start off here with.... 'it depends'.
Not sure how your topic came up as a result of the principle that Moshmann was trying to get across in his example??
fwiw I'm likely flatting a 3bet w QQ in early levels, but getting it ai w AA/KK (maybe calling 4bet shove w QQ but player read & structure dependent)
 
fletchdad

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I'm going to start off here with.... 'it depends'.
Not sure how your topic came up as a result of the principle that Moshmann was trying to get across in his example??
fwiw I'm likely flatting a 3bet w QQ in early levels, but getting it ai w AA/KK (maybe calling 4bet shove w QQ but player read & structure dependent)

I was pushing early in a few SnGs lately, and was reading this part of the book this morning. Collin was talking about the negative equity in the long run of getting all in early stage, it was more an explanation of equity. Collin explained how Jim and Bob are long term equity losers, so it got me to thinking, since I will do the exact same thing here - not with 2s - and thats how come I started this topic. Am I a long term equity loser? I will push a suited AK, even w/o a read. I think ai AA KK is standard, but in terms of long term equity, if I understood the example right, it is negative equity, or am I simplifying, or perhaps just misinterpreting too much?

Oh yea, as a note, I havent been playing long enough to get a realistic answer from my stats. I was a losing player till 2 months ago, since then I am a break even player.
 
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fletchdad

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I have been a bookworm since December last year. Have finished a bunch, and re reading almost everyone, as well as starting new ones. And it is amazing, how slowly but surely the knowledge sets in.

And after losing half my stack chasing the flush last night in the bodog buy in, its also amazing how quickly the knowledge is ignored........
 
cardplayer52

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You need to be a 55/45 favorite vs the villians range to get all in preflop and break even are far as equity is conserned. so the villian would need to have a lot of weaker aces in his range to justify getting allin preflop. as a rule if the is a good amount of side money in the pot and i still got a lot of fold equity i'll often shove my AK.
 
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You need to be a 55/45 favorite vs the villians range to get all in preflop and break even are far as equity is conserned. so the villian would need to have a lot of weaker aces in his range to justify getting allin preflop. as a rule if the is a good amount of side money in the pot and i still got a lot of fold equity i'll often shove my AK.

^ ?????..... huh?

I believe we're talkin' about STT SNG's here in OP's thread. (and am assuming we were referring to tournament equity, not chip equity).

... basic point being (imo) we're spewing our tourney equity (re-distributing it to remaining players) by getting it in early. Also, the benefit of increasing our stack by 2x is NOWHERE near the (obvious) detriment of losing it (this also relates to early mid-level stuff where it is often the 'correct' play to fold even if in +chip equity situations... because the negative consequences of losing chips far outweighs the benefit of winning more chips if already sitting on decent-sized stack).
Reading up on ICM will help to make sense of alot of decision making in SNG's (STT).
 
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we dont necessarily want to take flips early in a sng, but having said that, it's not a huge mistake if we do, in terms of spewing equity. early in a sng we do actually nearly double our equity, we redistribute only a small % to remaining players, as the tourney progresses though, like, say were on the bubble and we take that same flip, its much worse mistake, as we spew a lot of equity to remaining players.

i think this kind of depends on what stakes your playing. now, collin i believe is mostly a high stakes player, if you asked him what his range of shoving early would be in a $5 SNGim pretty sure it would definately include stuff like AK and QQ, the reason is due to the fact that we get called with worse hands way more often. AQ, AJ, KQ etc.
 
tomh7795

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we dont necessarily want to take flips early in a sng, but having said that, it's not a huge mistake if we do, in terms of spewing equity. early in a sng we do actually nearly double our equity, we redistribute only a small % to remaining players, as the tourney progresses though, like, say were on the bubble and we take that same flip, its much worse mistake, as we spew a lot of equity to remaining players.

I think it is a big mistake taking coin flips early in the sng. I think your spewing more equity then you think we are. Even if your a 58% fav your still spewing equity.
 
dj11

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And after losing half my stack chasing the flush last night in the bodog buy in, its also amazing how quickly the knowledge is ignored........

^^^ CLASSIC !
 
cjatud2012

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In an SNG we are always going to be "spewing equity", at least in the way that phrase is being used in this thread. Whenever a player gets eliminated, the chances that each player remaining will cash increases. So there isn't a situation in an SNG where we don't share the equity we win from knocking out an opponent, unless we are heads-up.

That said, it's not bad that we share the $EV. If we are getting it in early and our hand has about 55-60% chip equity against our opponents range, we are making a +$EV decision, even though our $EV doesn't necessarily double. Folding with good chip equity (better than 50/50, around the odds that cardplayer suggested), just because it's early, is actually -$EV.

Will talk more about this later, I have to go to class now unfortunately.
 
cjatud2012

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okay, now I have a little more time to talk about this and elaborate. So lemme try to give a couple of examples. Assume we're in the first hand of a 9-handed STT, blinds at t15-t30, starting stacks of t1500. We're in BB, and the action folds to villain in the SB who will go all-in in each example. Keep in mind that ICM does not take into account things like player skill, the benefits of having a big stack, etc., so these are not 100% accurate in terms of what our calculated $EV actually is. But they are close enough to what we need them for in this exercise.


So, to steal a scenario similar to the one in the book, let's say we have AhKh. Before we make our decision, villain flips his cards face up, and he has 2c2s. Here are our win odds:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
1,712,304 trials (Exhaustive)
AhKh 50.08% (852,207 wins, 10,775 ties)
2c2s 49.92% (849,322 wins, 10,775 ties)

This is effectively a 50/50 race. As for our pot odds in this situation, we are calling t1470 to win the villain's t1485, plus t45 from the blinds, so we are getting odds of t1530 to t1470, or 1.04:1. So clearly we are getting the right odds from a cEV perspective. However, if you translate this to $EV, we start with 0.1111 equity, and if we win, we would have 0.2028 equity (calculated from here). So to calculate the total equity of this play, we use the equation:

$EV = 50.08*(0.2028-0.1111) + 49.92*(0-0.1111) = -0.009 $EV

So our equity is negative, albeit not by a lot. Folding here is then the "optimal play".


Now let's say in a new scenario, villain turns over AsQh. Now our chip equity looks like this:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
1,712,304 trials (Exhaustive)
AhKh 75.22% (1,249,340 wins, 77,295 ties)
AsQh 24.78% (385,669 wins, 77,295 ties)

Using the same method as above, we can figure out the $EV of this decision:

$EV = 75.22*(0.2028-0.1111) + 24.78*(0-0.1111) = .042 $EV

So here, calling is correct by a pretty wide margin.


Now the question is, how much equity do we need to break even in terms of tournament equity? We can do this by setting our equation equal to zero and solving for x, the percentage of the time we win.

$EV = 0 = x*(0.2028-0.1111) + (1-x)*(0-.1111)
--> x = 0.5478

This means if we are have more than 54.78% win odds against a villain's range, then we can profitably call the all-in bet.


So if we can put a villain on a range of cards that he'd be shoving with in this spot, and our hand is about 55% against that range, we should call. Obviously, we won't always know exactly what the villain would have. Assigning a range will be based on whatever reads we have from that opponent. If they're shoving on the first hand of an SNG, we can probably assume they're pretty bad. This means two things: 1) they're probably pushing with a wider range; and 2) our tournament equity, or $EV, is probably greater than the 0.111 that we assigned initially. Basically, calling forces us to risks more chips, so there is more value in just surviving the early stages than if we
were playing against all good players and we had less of an edge. However, I would say in general we should still call if our range is ahead of his, like 60% or so.

It's up to you to determine what you should be stacking with early in an SNG against each villain. Hopefully this will help you do that a little. Also, bear in mind, in this example, we are facing an all-in shove that gives us 1.04:1 pot odds. I would say it is much more common in an SNG for villain to raise to something like t90, you 3-bet to t300, and then villain shoves all-in. Now, you are calling t1200 to win t1800, which is 1.5:1 pot odds, so your calling range should be a little wider than it would be in these contrived examples.
 
docStats

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Keep in mind that ICM does not take into account things like player skill, the benefits of having a big stack, etc., so these are not 100% accurate in terms of what our calculated $EV actually is.
...


Your (clear!) argument relies on this tenuous assumption of equal skill, etc. If one is going to apply that much mathematical machinery to their argument, then one should invest some time in "weighing" the strength of the other players (that is one adjust equity corresponding to player strength...how is up to you).

I would say that correct mathematical "crank-turning" on a bogus starting assumption results in an impressive -- but nonetheless bogus -- answer.
 
cjatud2012

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Your (clear!) argument relies on this tenuous assumption of equal skill, etc. If one is going to apply that much mathematical machinery to their argument, then one should invest some time in "weighing" the strength of the other players (that is one adjust equity corresponding to player strength...how is up to you).

I would say that correct mathematical "crank-turning" on a bogus starting assumption results in an impressive -- but nonetheless bogus -- answer.

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying, or maybe I didn't explain myself clearly... I was trying to acknowledge that ICM isn't perfect, in that it can't address certain factors, such as skill level, which we both recognized. We could try to modify our $EV to account for this, but we're never going to do this perfectly, even with reads. So it seems sort of futile, and it's simplest just to say that the model doesn't account for those things.
 
cjatud2012

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I'm not sure if I even addressed OP all that clearly, basically in the early stages of an SNG, against a random I'll stack with KK+ and AK, probably QQ too. If I'm not sure, I'll probably err on the side of caution, because so often the other players will get knocked out so quickly that it's better to wait.
 
fletchdad

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I'm not sure if I even addressed OP all that clearly, basically in the early stages of an SNG, against a random I'll stack with KK+ and AK, probably QQ too. If I'm not sure, I'll probably err on the side of caution, because so often the other players will get knocked out so quickly that it's better to wait.

Yes CJ, you did address me clearly, and TY for the time you put it. It does help. I will stack with KK+ and AK as well, and it is a definite "needs more time" if I have QQ or even JJ, as I play in low buy ins, and I have seen early stage 3-4 way all in multis with Q9s, KJos and stuff like that. Of course there will be lots of QQ+ in these as well, but it is a coin flip when I have a real good hand and am up against the all in. Having said that, I will usually fold my Js against an all in, unless I have witnessed some action from villain already.
As a side note, was in an SnG yesterday, and we had like the 4th hand a 4-way all in, me included. Its on my other computer across town, I will post it when I am there if anyone want to see it. I think I have all villains hands correct in memory, but I was AA, against AK, KK, AQ- When I saw all my outs gone, my heart sunk. But my As held up, 2 of the 3 eliminated and me way ahead. My last decent hand of that game, and I was out on the bubble.........:(
 
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I'm not sure I understand what you're saying, or maybe I didn't explain myself clearly... I was trying to acknowledge that ICM isn't perfect, in that it can't address certain factors, such as skill level, which we both recognized. We could try to modify our $EV to account for this, but we're never going to do this perfectly, even with reads. So it seems sort of futile, and it's simplest just to say that the model doesn't account for those things.

You can adjust your edge, which accounts for skill level over opponants and also future hand concerns. I'm talking about sng wizard. So whilst ICM isnt perfect, we can adjust our ICM calculators to be able to factor in these things to a point.
 
docStats

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You can adjust your edge, which accounts for skill level over opponants and also future hand concerns. I'm talking about sng wizard. So whilst ICM isnt perfect, we can adjust our ICM calculators to be able to factor in these things to a point.

This, essentially, is my response to CJ.
 
cjatud2012

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Yeah you could do that, if you expect to have more $EV, basically you would need better odds when you make decisions, since you're risking more equity. I wouldn't know how to do that by hand, so that's why I just said it wasn't perfect.
 
Collin Moshman

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This is a really good question, because it's very important to make the distinction between knowingly getting it all-in as a 50-50, versus getting it all-in with a hand that will often be 50-50 but will win > 50% of the time against your opponent's range.

So for instance, if I'm in the small blind with AK early, I will open-raise, and if the BB reraises, then I'm happy to play for stacks. When he has a lower pair, I lose equity ... but I expect to be up against AQ and worse unpaired hands often enough that I have a good enough edge to go with it even though ICM makes you less inclined to gamble early.

As for what hands to go with early, it really depends a lot on any reads (or even just the buyin), positions, exact stacks, etc. As a very rough guideline though, JJ+ and AK is a reasonable range to get all-in with early.
 
fletchdad

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This is a really good question, because it's very important to make the distinction between knowingly getting it all-in as a 50-50, versus getting it all-in with a hand that will often be 50-50 but will win > 50% of the time against your opponent's range.

So for instance, if I'm in the small blind with AK early, I will open-raise, and if the BB reraises, then I'm happy to play for stacks. When he has a lower pair, I lose equity ... but I expect to be up against AQ and worse unpaired hands often enough that I have a good enough edge to go with it even though ICM makes you less inclined to gamble early.

As for what hands to go with early, it really depends a lot on any reads (or even just the buyin), positions, exact stacks, etc. As a very rough guideline though, JJ+ and AK is a reasonable range to get all-in with early.

Thanks so much for your reply. It is really an honor to get a response from you personally. As your book is my no.1 source of SnG written advice, in some way I probably owe you a couple of bucks, seeing as since I have adopted your strategy and put it to aggressive use, my game has TOTALLY turned around.:) (I will be checking my mailbox for the bill....:D)

I have been getting a bit nittyer (is that a word?) in early play, so after reading your response, must again start to include JJ in my starting hand arsenal. I just folded them yesterday. I (UTG) raised 3 1/2 BB, was re-raised, and then an all in to the re raise. I thought against a re raise and then all in, I would pick a better spot. (Anyone care to comment on their play in this situation- early play 10 players, all average stack, blinds 20-40?)

Again, thanks for your reply, and involvement in this forum as well!!

Edit: in my situation above with the JJ, it was a SnG, and I have no info on my 2 villains..
 
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Thanks so much for your reply. It is really an honor to get a response from you personally. As your book is my no.1 source of SnG written advice, in some way I probably owe you a couple of bucks, seeing as since I have adopted your strategy and put it to aggressive use, my game has TOTALLY turned around.:) (I will be checking my mailbox for the bill....:D)

I have been getting a bit nittyer (is that a word?) in early play, so after reading your response, must again start to include JJ in my starting hand arsenal. I just folded them yesterday. I (UTG) raised 3 1/2 BB, was re-raised, and then an all in to the re raise. I thought against a re raise and then all in, I would pick a better spot. (Anyone care to comment on their play in this situation- early play 10 players, all average stack, blinds 20-40?)

Fold. You're not closing out the action & the initial 3-bet is still to act, which means you might be up against 2 opponents & you could easily be crushed. (Ideal situation obviously being they both have AK, or AK/AQ...but what are the odds of that?).
Question... what is the buyin? (THis makes a difference as was mentioned above). What is the structure? (I'd be more apt to call if it was a turbo but it'd be a big fuhged abow dit if it was reg. speed).
Another question: Why are we rasing to Pot when we open UTG? (is it because it's a micor on Pokerstars where any EP open raise in early levels often gets 4flatcalls & your JJ will be in poor shape for postflop play in a multi-way pot?).
 
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I have been getting a bit nittyer (is that a word?) in early play, so after reading your response, must again start to include JJ in my starting hand arsenal. I just folded them yesterday. I (UTG) raised 3 1/2 BB, was re-raised, and then an all in to the re raise. I thought against a re raise and then all in, I would pick a better spot. (Anyone care to comment on their play in this situation- early play 10 players, all average stack, blinds 20-40?)


Yeah it's a definite fold. I think when Colin Moshman was talking of getting it all-in pre-flop with JJ+ he was talking about from the specific type of situation you introduced in the OP. ie from SB or late position, if you're holding JJ and get 3-bet, then it's prob okay to shove here. Not from UTG with 2 reraises behind you.
 
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fletchdad

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PO, its a dollar buy in. I did fold, I had to raise PF with JJ, but the re raise and the all in convinced me to find a better place to push. It was a PF move which is why I raised. I cant see folding JJ UTG or anywhere when there has been no action yet. Well, since I was first to act, there couldnt
be any action yet, but JJ PF cant be limped, but I cant just throw it away, can i? I thought 3 1/2 BB was a reasonable PF bet. After seeing the action to followI was outa there with a healthy stack to keep going.
 
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Another question: Why are we rasing to Pot when we open UTG? (is it because it's a micor on Pokerstars where any EP open raise in early levels often gets 4flatcalls & your JJ will be in poor shape for postflop play in a multi-way pot?).

I don't mind the preflop raise but think it's a bit large. 2.5 BB would do it for me here. Four flat calls isn't such a bad thing - we just play it to setmine - fairly cheap price with good enough implied odds.

Having said that I won't always raise it. Probably 50/50 raise/limp. But then again I never have been able to play jacks :rolleyes:
 
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I don't mind the preflop raise but think it's a bit large. 2.5 BB would do it for me here. Four flat calls isn't such a bad thing - we just play it to setmine - fairly cheap price with good enough implied odds.

Having said that I won't always raise it. Probably 50/50 raise/limp. But then again I never have been able to play jacks :rolleyes:

I will usually bet my jacks if no one had moved yet, I want those K9 or A6 to fold (which they do not a lot at these stakes, but sometimes). I may limp in late position, but if I limp early I am folding to any bet bigger than my 3-4 BB anyway, so might as well make it first. I guess 2 1/2 BB would have served the same purpose tho, and saved me a small bet.

And I heard there are 3 ways to play jacks, ........... and they are all wrong.......
 
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