This is a discussion on C-bet EV studying within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; I was studying the EV of CBETS relative to the board and the sizing of our open bet. I open from the CO with KJo
I was studying the EV of CBETS relative to the board and the sizing of our open bet. I open from the CO with KJo and get called by the TAG BB. Based on our HUD stats he reraises with top 3% of his hands and calls with 10% from that position (this is obviously hypothetical for the sake of the exercise). The 2 flops I made my calculations on where 1) Ad Qs 4h and 2) 2d 3d 7c. I proceed to find my Fold% by counting the villain's preflop combinations and the combinations he continues with on the flop, as well as my hand's equity against his range on each board. Now I'm ready to calculate the EV of my C-Bet on each flop with different open-bet sizing and c-bet sizing (3x open with 60% cbet, 3x open with 30% c-bet, 2.25x open with 30% c-bet, 2.25x open with 60% c-bet).I assumed that we don't loose more if our C-Bet is called or raised, I also double checked all my results there are no mistakes.
My conclusions are that on a flop that we have more Fold% against villain's range we can c-bet more often than we can on a flop that we have more equity. Also it seems like 3x open preflop and 30% c-bet is more profitable than any other option (I've been opening for 2.25x for a lot of time now). I know this is not entirely true because there are plenty of factors that affect our play's EV but how do you find this overall? Am I on the right track?