Originally Posted by TiltyMcSteamy
Sorry guys I forgot to mention I was in the cash in what was a large field and around 200 paid if I remember correctly. Also I'm always playing for top 3 so I like to make my calls based on this. So since then I had this spot come up again in a far more interesting spot, so here were the dynamics. 20k prize pool , final table 5 left. Payouts 1- $3.5k 2- $2.4k 3- $1.4k 4- $1k 5- $750. So I'm sitting in 4th place with 13 bb and I look down at K9 diamonds. Action folds around to sb who shoves in on me sitting in 5th with 7 bb. My read on the opponent was that he was quite tight and nitty as he had previously given me a walk from this spot 2-3 times at this final table which is pretty unusual these days. So as I've stated b4 this is usually a call for me but here given my read and the impact it would have on my stack if I lose I found myself in a tough spot. I guess on the flip side if I call and win its a $250 pay jump and I have a stack to open up a bit. So I end up tanking to the point of almost timing out and make the fold. I shove in QJ a couple hands later and lose a flip vs 55 to bust out 5th. I cant help but feeling like I missed a spot and shoulda made the call even though he was tight. I'd like to thank you guys again for all the great feedback and hope I get more here. As always GL on the felt my friends!
I think you can fold K9s in that spot because of your read. I think it's a marginal enough spot that either calling or folding are not a big error, though. The fact that he's given you 2-3 walks suggests that he is folding a lot of his trashy hands....meaning he is not likely jamming on you with a WORSE King.
So, if we assign him a range of Any pair, any Ace, K8+, Q8+, J8+, T8+, and 98 (pushing 38.5% of hands) then you have 46.6% equity vs. that range. Given the money in the pot it's probably a break even call. If you think his range is much tighter than that, then it's a good fold.