BUBBLE Strategy: Interesting Question

Do you think it is a mistake to risk any %age of your stack with 55 BBs?

  • Yes

    Votes: 2 22.2%
  • No

    Votes: 7 77.8%

  • Total voters
    9
Shumkoolie

Shumkoolie

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So CardsChat sent out this tweet earlier today, which I think is a VERY interesting spot.

BubbleStrat

So, as you can see, I responded that if I had, say 10BB's+, I could justify a fold in this spot. But, with 5.5BB's, you are VERY likely one of the 2-3 shortest stacks in this satellite. So, based on the response to this point, 89% said that they would call, and I also voted to call.

Here's something interesting that came to mind as I was thinking about this, which I think could be a better point of discussion, and hopefully some of the pro's will weigh in here ITT.

Is the 55BB stack making a mistake open shoving here? (Even with Aces).

Thinking about it, you are putting part of your stack in jeopardy here for a prize that is of equal value to all winners. If you are assured of a spot in the tournament you are trying to qualify for, what benefit is it to "pressure" the smaller stacks? If anything, wouldn't you want the smaller stacks to play (essentially) a game of chicken, to see who will blink first? Whether you have 55 BB's or 25 BB's or 5 BB's, the prize is the same.

Why put yourself into a spot where you could POSSIBLY become part of that game?

What do you all think?
 
eetenor

eetenor

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So CardsChat sent out this tweet earlier today, which I think is a VERY interesting spot.

View attachment 268639

So, as you can see, I responded that if I had, say 10BB's+, I could justify a fold in this spot. But, with 5.5BB's, you are VERY likely one of the 2-3 shortest stacks in this satellite. So, based on the response to this point, 89% said that they would call, and I also voted to call.

Here's something interesting that came to mind as I was thinking about this, which I think could be a better point of discussion, and hopefully some of the pro's will weigh in here ITT.

Is the 55BB stack making a mistake open shoving here? (Even with Aces).

Thinking about it, you are putting part of your stack in jeopardy here for a prize that is of equal value to all winners. If you are assured of a spot in the tournament you are trying to qualify for, what benefit is it to "pressure" the smaller stacks? If anything, wouldn't you want the smaller stacks to play (essentially) a game of chicken, to see who will blink first? Whether you have 55 BB's or 25 BB's or 5 BB's, the prize is the same.

Why put yourself into a spot where you could POSSIBLY become part of that game?

What do you all think?

Thank you for posting

I think you misread the tweet you are in a MTT not a Satty Unless a min cash is huge money for you say 5K and your bankroll is 500 you should always get All-in in this spot with this stack size. Or of course if you just want I cashed bragging rights then fold everything

Hope this helps
 
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ph_il

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As I read it, you've won the a satellite seat and you're already in the tournament. So, this is a money bubble spot.

As played, if the bubble min-cash is something ridiculous like a 500+% increase to a BR, then maybe i can see someone folding in this spot as calling and losing could potentially cost them, say $300 from a $50 BR.

But, 5.5BBs and 4BBs is so close and it's not guaranteed that 4BBs is bubbling, I don't see how I can fold AA here. Assuming its heads-up, against a lag, I win 80% of the time and increase my stack to 13 BBs. Still short but now my odds of getting pass the bubble have increased significantly. Plus, now I have a more playable short stack.
 
Shumkoolie

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Yes, I did misread the tweet.....My bad, lol. I thought having that discussion was interesting as well.

But, to be on topic with the tweet, here are my thoughts.

If you have Aces and facing an open shove, I'm calling as well. If you double-up (and then some), you give yourself a better chance to win the tournament than if you fold 100% of your hands and try for a min-cash.

Open shove from UTG is obviously trying to take advantage of people over-folding hands, in hopes for min-cashing. This is their dream spot too, to accumulate chips with minimal resistance, though merely shoving can potentially increase their variance as well.

Conversely, you could raise small each hand pre, and you'll win those pots more often than you will get pushback (assuming table dynamics are such that people are folding VERY tight). It's all situational of course, because some tables, chip leader isn't going to be able to do that. I'm thinking that in this case, chip leader has everyone HUGELY covered, with all opponents folding most of the time. They COULD be shoving with a big hand too, in which case, they were just unlucky to be facing Aces from you.

Interesting spots.
 
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natelearnspoker

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Shoving pocket aces

Assuming that you can cover the other player's stack, I don't see the problem with shoving aces. In the long term, it could help your table image and if you make final table, people will respect your raises more.

I only wouldn't shove if the stack sizes were closer in size.
 
veltins

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Its 100% call for me as its an MTT , not an sattie.. a nice du there and then who knows anything can happen. I am ready to be bust in the hope of having bigger stack for a shot at final table. That's just my take from this spot
 
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Tyler Finnimore

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I will almost always call here because you might as well play to win and not just to min cash in this situation
 
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