On the bubble question.....

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roygor

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Hey guys,

I was wondering, lets say you play in a big tournament with a lot of money on the line. 90% of the players are out and its time for the "bubble" player, you hold an average stack.

You get pocket aces (AA), you raise and then you get re-raised by the chip leader for your entire stack!

Do you call it or fold it ?
 
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deffcity

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personally id call. chip leader knows nobody wants to be bubble boy so he's range is much wider than average stack and he's putting pressure on, ur holding the best hand pre flop.
 
Abramo Della Luce

Abramo Della Luce

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Easy call. If you're scared to lose your buy-in because it was so high, you're probably playing in the wrong tournament for your bankroll in the first place.
 
Vitaliy Popik

Vitaliy Popik

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It is difficult to answer .. Nobody knows what have the enemy, and that what be on the table .. It is better to fold and wait until the end bubble , and then play easy :)
 
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nyolcas

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Depends on the amount of your your first raise and your stack. In case if your first raise was a decent raise based on your stack, I would say easy call.
 
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3ccasd

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for it would be very important in daannoy situation as I paid money for their participation in the tournament, and what sort of first prizes.
If it's Sunday Million which I got via satellite, I'll go to the best first prizes.
In any other sitatsii I kolirovat chip leader with pocket AA, since it will have a very wide range.
 
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redmast

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It all depends on my raise before the flop. If it was 1/4 of my stack and no more, and I can fold. Only if this tournament with a very grand entrance. In all other cases the call. The last place on the bubble and the prize is only 2 or 3 times the input. Better to fight for a larger prize and make a call.
 
Talden

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Easy call. You should play for top not mini cash. Last week I bust in 51st of a 50 payout tourney. I busted with KK . It happens my .02c. TAL
EDIT: just noticed the part about the re-raise, worst case scenario, he has AA too. Otherwise your a big favorite pre.
 
Kenzie 96

Kenzie 96

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If you can't call here, you don't belong in this game.
 
fadisn

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You should call, BUT on online poker like PS, when I do this, it was always the chip leader who wins ! even with 2 7 :(
 
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rule72

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...say you play in a big tournament with a lot of money on the line. 90% of the players are out and its time for the "bubble" player, you hold an average stack.

You get pocket aces (AA), you raise and then you get re-raised by the chip leader for your entire stack!

Do you call it or fold it ?

In most cases you call. Stack less than half your stack for sure. But for stack bigger than yours you have to consider the pay jumps and the other stack sizes. A scenario I might fold is several smaller stacks and folding means at worst cashing in the middle of the pay jumps and you still have a stack to win first with.

Calling and winning this hand you double up and have a monster stack, will happen 80% of the time.

Calling and loosing you have nothing, will happen 20% of the time.

If you can walk out empty handed satisfied that you got it in good and not beat yourself up, or the other guy, call all-in regardless. And don't start telling another "how I got my aces cracked" story... very boring and nobody cares. lol
 
quick

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Insta call with AA vast majority of the time. We're ahead pre flop, only tie pre flop is AA which I've actually lost AA to AA a few times before but that shouldn't even be a consideration for you.

Now with KK is trickier. As others said if it's a really big stack they likely have wide ranges and are bullying with many weaker hands. But a smaller or mid stack is probably not shoving weak wide ranges. So on bubble they're not likely risking the tourney life on like 99.

I've folded QQ and AK in this spot a lot as well. But AA the only time I'm folding it pre flop facing a shove is if multiple stacks are already all in and one has me covered, and one of them busting means i get into the money. AA seems less great when you're facing half the table all in and you're out if you lose.
 
PapaC

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Was just reading about where and with what cards to go all in. For me, it's an easy call there. I'm never would fold AA no matter how the hand turns out. Around bubble time the big stacks will play any 2 cards because nobody wants to be the bubble boy. I would really say you are lucky for the all in just in time you need the double up. GL to you
 
luiaguila

luiaguila

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simple allin because you have the best hand before the flop in the worst case he may have AA also otherwise you will be above it and more if the chip leader probably pay a AK AQ and you will be a very large pile acuerdate the last places that pay only 2 or 3 times your entry and to be honest is not a big deal to win that after so many hours spent
 
teepack

teepack

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That's a pretty easy call, I think. If you lose, then you lose. THe bubble time is a great time to get more chips as small stacks get very conservative and large stacks can get overly aggressive trying to feed on the smaller stacks.
 
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LalaBliss

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If you have pocket aces (AA) you must always go all in. You should go all in once it is your turn. Most people make a mistake and just raise a little on the blind with AA. You should chase away the players with weak hands by going all in right away. :) At least that's what I would do in the bubble.

Good luck friend!
 
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GeorgeF1234

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Call it. You would be ahead pre-flop almost certainly. If you think about what would happen if you had this situation 100 times, you'd definitely win the majority of times
 
Dorugremon

Dorugremon

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Hey guys,

I was wondering, lets say you play in a big tournament with a lot of money on the line. 90% of the players are out and its time for the "bubble" player, you hold an average stack.

You get pocket aces (AA), you raise and then you get re-raised by the chip leader for your entire stack!

Do you call it or fold it ?

Call with Hosannas to the Poker Gods. You've got the absolute Brazils at this point. If he dogs your aces, well, them's the breaks. If you win, you have yourself a big stack going into the money.

If it were a pair of cowboys, then it's a different story.

If the chip leader's colliding with a shortie or another big stack, then you might consider folding the aces and watching the action from the sidelines. Let him do your work for you and put you in the money at zero risk.
 
SBEP

SBEP

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A chance to double up with aces, i dont see how can i lay down that hand and miss that chance to double up, so call always unless, i have sold a lot of shares and i hav emany people to pay off then i would consider folding, otherwise no f-ing chance in hell i would lay down aces to an all in shove preflop :D
 
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Chipsteal_jj

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Easy call. You should always, always be aiming to win the tournament and this is the best chance you can have to double up your chips as the chip leader will play a wide variety of hands. Just because it is the bubble doesnt change anything, with 30% of the people still playing instead of 10%, you would've called without thinking twice.
 
dgospa

dgospa

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Mine play would be With that hand, call . Maybe he had pocket pair but probablly he wants to scared you cuz he is chip leader. And you have MONSTERS to show him. So 80% if he calls you are doubled up. Sometimes you need to be brave and not scared. I know we all have bad beats with that cards. But some time u need to step foward and show him who is THE BOSS! Cheers! :)
 
GuiWah

GuiWah

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Normally the chipleader open his range to get the money from the bubble.
So, i think the call is better.
 
milencenov

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Hey guys,

I was wondering, lets say you play in a big tournament with a lot of money on the line. 90% of the players are out and its time for the "bubble" player, you hold an average stack.

You get pocket aces (AA), you raise and then you get re-raised by the chip leader for your entire stack!

Do you call it or fold it ?

I looked at all answers to your question.

They ALL made the SAME mistake !!!

When we calculate the odds (and we know AA is favorite against all hands, except AA), we all assume that +EV is decided by CHIP COUNT.

NO - it is NOT.

At the bubble, +EV is decided by: 1. You are eliminated with lost buyin and 0 prize, and 2. You are in the money (and then, the question is - how deep in the money will you go).

If you call with AA, and run into lower pair (like 10-10) - you will double up at 82% probability.

But you face elimination at 18% risk.

NOTE: doubling in chips does NOT mean doubling in prize !!! Very often, doubled prizes are higher in the ladder, and your doubling in chips does NOT guarantee the same growth in prize money.

NOTE 2: In ACR, only in the last month, near bubble, I lost 4 of 6 with AA, 3 of 6 with KK, and AK is my top loser - 8 of 10 lost.

On average, doubling on the bubble brought me only about 20 to 30% more prize money (compared to to the minimal win).

And also - if you factor in the buy-in cost, that makes folding AA a smart decision.

So, sometimes even folding top hands may be your key to winning.

To the guy who commented about "fear of losing your buyin" and "the level you play at", I make NOTE 3:

NOTE 3: If anyone wants mathematical proof in terms of net profits and probabilities, just type it in in your comments here, and I will post it.
 
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