Originally Posted by roygor
I was wondering, lets say you play in a big tournament with a lot of money on the line. 90% of the players are out and its time for the "bubble" player, you hold an average stack.
You get pocket aces (AA), you raise and then you get re-raised by the chip leader for your entire stack!
Do you call it or fold it ?
I looked at all answers to your question.
They ALL made the SAME mistake !!!
When we calculate the odds
(and we know AA is favorite against all hands, except AA), we all assume that +EV is decided by CHIP COUNT.
NO - it is NOT.
At the bubble, +EV is decided by: 1. You are eliminated with lost buyin and 0 prize, and 2. You are in the money (and then, the question is - how deep in the money will you go).
If you call with AA, and run into lower pair (like 10-10) - you will double up at 82% probability.
But you face elimination at 18% risk.
NOTE: doubling in chips does NOT mean doubling in prize !!! Very often, doubled prizes are higher in the ladder, and your doubling in chips does NOT guarantee the same growth in prize money.
NOTE 2: In ACR, only in the last month, near bubble, I lost 4 of 6 with AA, 3 of 6 with KK, and AK is my top loser - 8 of 10 lost.
On average, doubling on the bubble brought me only about 20 to 30% more prize money (compared to to the minimal win).
And also - if you factor in the buy-in cost, that makes folding AA a smart decision.
So, sometimes even folding top hands may be your key to winning.
To the guy who commented about "fear of losing your buyin" and "the level you play at", I make NOTE 3:
NOTE 3: If anyone wants mathematical proof in terms of net profits and probabilities, just type it in in your comments here, and I will post it.