To bubble or to double?

There are 10 people left in the tourny, top 9 cash. You are 5th in chips with about 3 bb left. All the other short stacks 6-10, are on the other table where a player with 50% of the chips is sitting and letting the blinds get walks. You are in the bb delt AK suited, UTG, your tables chip leader, goes all in. Action is folded to you. If you call, and double up you will be 3rd in chips and have enough chips to flold a few orbits. if you fold, you have a little over 2bb with the sb to come. Do you fold, hope that the short stacks on the other table get KO'ed, or call with a drawing hand, get healthy in chips and in all likelyhood a decent top 4 cash?

(I know how bad the 50% player is already)

I would call. If the chip leader had a marginal hand, he/she would have probably just limped or put in a small raise to lure other people into the pot. Maybe he has a small pocket pair, and if that's the case, it is a coin flip that I would be willing to take. If it's not a small pocket pair, my guess would be that he/she has something along the lines of QJ, KJ, KQ, so the call would be a good one.

Of course, I could be totally wrong, lol.

I say double or nothing!

I'd play it safe and hopefully let someone else get knocked out.

You always call there and go for the double, never play to just cash.

I'm folding. AK is a hand that is never far behind unless it comes up against KK or AA (even KK there is a good chance of survival) but it also has one huge weakness. It is almost never ahead. The villain's range here is any two face card combination and any pocket pair.

Examples of AKs against various hands:

AKs vs. AQs: This is the best case scenario, AQ is a 3:1 dog, but if villain spikes a Q, AK is drawing to only 3 outs.

AKs vs. 77: Coin flip basically, calculator has 77 with a 52 percent chance of winning.

AKs vs. KQs: KQs is actually a little stronger than AQs, almost 30 percent to win.

AKs vs. T9s: T9 wins about 40 percent of the time, something that is really telling of the true strength of AKs.

UTG can easily have any of these, is a double up possible? Yes. But with the blinds basically behind me (SB still to come) and several people ahead with weaker stacks... I'm folding this. Someone will get out before the next rotation, AK is a terribly deceptive hand in terms of strength, I've learned to never trust it.

I usually fold, for the reasons I have in my "Having the best hand is over rated" section in this post.

I guess if the big stack at the other table is just folding every hand, and the shorties aren't making moves so they all in stasis while you are getting eaten alive, then I'm doomed unless there's a cold deck at the other table. The odds of someone getting cold decked there are probably substantially less than the odds of me losing with A/K, so I unhappily make the call.

the choice is obviouse

To me the choice is obviouse, for one main reason. I always play every tourney to win. Not to just make it to the money. Big Slick is the ultimate drawing hand. In the senario you described you would almost have to go for the draw pre-flop. Especially the way you opponent bet. probably with mediocre cards.

With 3bb and AK - I'd have to go for it. If you don't catch anything in SB you'll be all-in when the blinds get back around to you anyway. If the other table's getting a pass in the blinds, you've got three more hands to see before the blinds eat you alive. The odds you'll see something better than AK in those hands are pretty slim.

I hate to bubble but typically you're really not making any money unless you finish 4th or higher. Go for it!

THe Slob said:

With 3bb and AK - I'd have to go for it. If you don't catch anything in SB you'll be all-in when the blinds get back around to you anyway. If the other table's getting a pass in the blinds, you've got three more hands to see before the blinds eat you alive. The odds you'll see something better than AK in those hands are pretty slim.

I hate to bubble but typically you're really not making any money unless you finish 4th or higher. Go for it!

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Right now with 3bb hes in 5th place though, meaning there are a lot of shorter stacks to come. But yeah if you want to hit forth there is no way you can fold this, unless he gets another hand max hes gonna get out in 8th or 9th.

The real Question should be "How did i get down to 3 bb worth of chips" you should a been pushing against the avg stacks at your table about 15 bb ago that is exactly why you have to keep track of your chip stack and make sure it doesn't get so low.

But to answer your question Hell yes there With AK i am calling no question about it.

salim271 said:

Right now with 3bb hes in 5th place though, meaning there are a lot of shorter stacks to come. But yeah if you want to hit forth there is no way you can fold this, unless he gets another hand max hes gonna get out in 8th or 9th.

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If the other 4 short stacks are at the other table and they're getting a pass on the blinds, they are waiting until someone at the other table busts and they're ITM before they do anything. If they keep folding around to the BB, which they're going to do unless one of them picks up a really big hand, he's got three hands outside of the blinds to shove something. Why not shove now? Preflop you're only a bid dog to a couple of hands (AA-KK), your racing with any PP, and you're ahead of the rest.

Of course when I call here it seems that the UTG raiser turns over the AA or KK and I look like a donkey...gotta hate that! lol

I would call and hope to double up and try take this tournament down my mentality is too always go for the win even though it's not always right.

rounder22 said:

I would call and hope to double up and try take this tournament down my mentality is too always go for the win even though it's not always right.

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How is that not always right?

You can't win everytime you play sometimes when your not rolled well you should take the cash but I have always been go for the win and that won't change. Everything in poker is dependent on stacks sizes if you go for the win while short on chips near the bubble you will bubble more times then not when you would have cashed so going for the win instead of surviving can be wrong at certain times.

I think you have to push. You need to move up if your are going to win the tourney.

If you only care about cashing then be passive and fold but tell me when you are playing so I can sit down with you!

If you're down to 3 bb you're in pretty bad shape and as most I'd recommend an all-in/fold strategy... The chipleader is very aware of the fact that he doesn't risk too much kicking the small stacks around, cause they'll play cautious facing the bubble. AKs is a definite all-in and a great opportunity in my eyes.

I am calling. You are guaranteed a heads up showdown and in real trouble against only AA and KK. With only 3bb left you gotta go for it. If you fold, you might end up taking your final stand with a garbage hand against perhaps more than one opponent. (The fact that everyone folded around to you suggests that are still high cards in the deck, although you shouldn’t hang your hat on this.)

The other day I was in a similar spot to you (except I had already cashed and there were 6 left on the final table). I had a little more than 3 blinds left, and the small blind (He had about 8 bbs left) made a 3xbb raise which effectively put me all in. I had K3os. Garbage. But in my gut I didn’t think I was in terrible shape heads up so I shoved it. He had QJ and hit a J on the turn and I was out. If I was on the bubble I would have folded, but the point is that you gotta pick a spot to take a stand. You can’t wait too long.

if yer down to that many small blinds u call. hands down! call! but u should have been pushing harder w/ more big blinds

I would go all in and take my chances with AK. it is always the best idea to get your chips into the pot with good cards, if you loose you had a good hand, if you win you are in great shape to finish well in the tournment